New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Prediction 1-5-25 NFL Picks

The Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots meet in week 18 NFL action from Gillette Stadium on Sunday afternoon. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Prediction.

Buffalo Bills Recap

The Buffalo Bills come into this game looking to prep for the postseason after ending up with a 40-14 win over the Jets last time out to improve to 13-3 on the year, but despite the win, with Kansas City taking down Pittsburgh, the Chiefs would lock up the top spot in the AFC and the Bills would lock into 2^nd.

Bills Prepping For Playoff Matchup

Josh Allen has thrown for 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions on 63.6% passing while also rushing for 531 yards and 12 touchdowns. James Cook has a team-high 981 rushing yards with 15 TDs while Ray Davis has 378 rushing yards and 3 TDs. Khalil Shakir has a team-high 76 receptions for 821 yards and 4 touchdowns while Keon Coleman has 525 receiving yards and 4 TDs. Dalton Kincaid also has 448 receiving yards as well. Mack Hollins and Dawson Knox each have 300+ receiving yards and four more Bills have 200+ receiving yards on the year as well. On defense, Dorian Williams has a team-high 113 total tackles including 66 solo tackles while Greg Rousseau has a team-high 8 sacks and AJ Epenesa has 6 sacks as well on the year. As a unit, Buffalo’s defense has put up 38 sacks and 16 interceptions this season.

New England Patriots Recap

The New England Patriots come into this one looking to finish the season on a high note where possible after a 40-7 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers dropped New England to 3-13 on the year. A 14^th loss would give the Patriots their lowest win total at season’s end since 1990 when the Pats went just 1-15.

Patriots Looking Ahead To Owning High Draft Pick

Drake Maye has thrown for 2,276 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 10 INTs on 66.8% passing this season while Jacoby Brissett has thrown for 826 yards, 2 touchdowns, and an interception on 59.1% passing. Rhamondre Stevenson leads New England on the ground with 801 rushing yards and 7 TDs while Antonio Gibson’s added 497 rushing yards. Hunter Henry leads the Pats with 674 receiving yards and 66 receptions while DeMario Douglas has 587 receiving yards and 63 grabs. Austin Hooper and Kayshon Boutte each have 400+ receiving yards while another three more Patriot receivers have 150+ receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, Jahlani Tavai has a team-high 111 total tackles with Keion White and Deatrich Wise Jr. each logging a team-high 5 sacks as well on the year. As a unit, New England’s defense has combined for 28 sacks and 6 interceptions so far this season.

Why the New England Patriots will win

• The Bills have lost 12 of their last 13 January road games against AFC opponents.
• The home team has won each of the last four games between the Bills and Patriots.
• The Bills have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games as road favorites when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last three games against the Bills.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of the Patriots’ last eight games as home underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the last four Sunday games at Gillette Stadium has gone OVER the total points line.
• Six of the Bills’ last seven games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Prediction

I’m on the under here. Simply put, you have a game here where neither team gains anything by winning it. The Bills are likely resting the majority of their key pieces in preparation for their playoff game, while the Patriots are the front-runners for the #1 overall pick and likely don’t want to jeopardize their standing in that. I think this is going to be a game where there’s a ton of mucking around between the twenties, and the punters are going to have a heavy workload here. Give me the under.