Patriots vs Texans Prediction 1/18/26 NFL Picks Today

The Houston Texans and the New England Patriots meet in a AFC Divisional Round playoff matchup in NFL action from Gillette Stadium on Sunday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Patriots vs Texans Prediction.

Houston Texans Recap

The Houston Texans come into this game looking to add on to their 30-6 win over Pittsburgh last time out.

Texans Looking To Add On First Road Playoff Win In Franchise History

C.J. Stroud has 3,041 yards, 19 touchdowns and 8 interceptions on 64.5% passing while Davis Mills has thrown for 915 yards, 5 TDs and an INT on 57.2% passing. Nick Chubb has rushed for 506 yards and 3 touchdowns as well this season. Woody Marks also has 703 rushing yards and 2 TDs while Nico Collins leads Houston’s receivers with 1,117 receiving yards and 6 TDs and Dalton Schultz has 82 grabs for 777 yards. Xavier Hutchinson has 428 receiving yards and 3 TDs and Jayden Higgins has 525 receiving yards as well this season. Three more Texans have 200+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Azeez Al-Shaair leads the Texans with 103 total tackles while Jalen Pitre has 4 INTs and Will Anderson Jr. has 12 sacks. Danielle Hunter also has a team-high 15 sacks while Kamari Lassiter, Calen Bullock and Derek Stingley Jr. all have 4 interceptions as well this season. As a unit, Houston’s defense has combined for 47 sacks and 19 interceptions up to this point in the year.

Why the Houston Texans will win

• The Texans have won each of their last 10 games.
• The Patriots have lost each of their last four games as slight favorites (<-3.5 points).
• The Texans have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games as underdogs without Derek Stingley Jr..
• The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as favorites when playing with a rest advantage.

Houston Texans Player Prop Facts

• C.J. Stroud has recorded 229+ passing yards in six of his last seven appearances with the Texans as underdogs following a win.
• Nick Chubb has recorded 16+ rushing yards in each of his 17 previous appearances on the East Coast.
• Christian Kirk has recorded 22+ receiving yards in each of his 15 previous appearances with his team as an underdog on the East Coast.
• Nick Chubb has recorded 39+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 15 appearances on the East Coast.
• Joe Mixon has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last six appearances on the East Coast.
• Davis Mills has recorded 22+ completions in four of his last five appearances as a starter.
• Ka’imi Fairbairn ranked 1st in the NFL in made field goals (44) during the reg. season.

New England Patriots Recap

The New England Patriots come into this game looking to add on to their 16-3 win over the Los Angeles Chargers last time out.

Patriots Looking To Get Back To AFC Title Game For First Time In Post-Brady Era

Drake Maye has thrown for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns and 8 interceptions on 72% passing while TreVeyon Henderson has a team-high 911 rushing yards and 9 TDs. Rhamondre Stevenson has 603 rushing yards and 7 TDs and Drake Maye has 450 rushing yards with 4 TDs while Stefon Diggs has a team-high 85 catches for 1,013 yards and 4 TDs to lead New England’s receiving group. Kayshon Boutte has 551 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns while Hunter Henry has 768 receiving yards and 7 TDs. Mack Hollins has 46 catches for 550 yards and DeMario Douglas has 447 receiving yards while another four receivers have 200+ receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, Robert Spillane has a team-high 97 total tackles including 48 solo tackles while Harold Landry III has a team-high 8.5 sacks. K’Lavon Chaisson has 7.5 sacks and Milton Williams has 3.5 sacks. As a unit, New England’s defense has combined for 35 sacks and 10 interceptions so far this season.

Why the New England Patriots will win

• The Patriots have won each of their last eight Divisional Round games.
• The Texans have lost each of their last seven road games against AFC East opponents on a winning streak.
• The Texans have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 12 games as road underdogs against AFC East opponents.
• The favorites have covered the spread in eight of the Patriots’ last nine games at Gillette Stadium.

New England Patriots Player Prop Facts

• TreVeyon Henderson has scored two or more touchdowns in three of the Patriots’ last four home games against AFC opponents.
• Drake Maye has recorded 256+ passing yards in seven of the Patriots’ last eight games as favorites.
• Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 40+ rushing yards in each of the Patriots’ last six games.
• Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 77+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Patriots’ last six games.
• Drake Maye has recorded 20+ completions in each of the Patriots’ last five games against AFC South opponents.
• Austin Hooper has recorded 11+ receiving yards in each of his eight previous appearances with his team as a home favorite against AFC South opponents.
• Joshua Dobbs has scored a touchdown in each of his last four appearances against teams that held a winning record.
• Drake Maye ranked 1st amongst qualified players for passer rating (113.5) during the reg. season.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of the Texans’ last eight road games without Davis Mills have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seven of the Patriots’ last eight Sunday games played on the East Coast have gone OVER the total points line.
• Five of the last six Sunday games at Gillette Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

Patriots vs Texans Prediction

I’m on the Patriots here. I think for all the talk about New England’s schedule this season, I think that no one really gives this team the credit they deserve for how solid their defense has been and how well coached this team is. The Texans looked solid defensively against Pittsburgh, but that game was close for about 3 quarters before the Texans broke it open with defensive scores in the 4th quarter against a Pittsburgh team with Aaron Rodgers. He was one of the worst 4th quarter QBs in the NFL this season. I think Drake Maye at home is legit, and I think the Patriots make another statement. Give me New England.