Miami Dolphins (7-9) vs. New England Patriots (13-3)
January 4, 2026 4:25 pm EDT
The Line: New England Patriots -10.5; Over/Under: 45.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Miami Dolphins and the New England Patriots meet in week 18 NFL action from Gillette Stadium on Sunday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction.
Miami Dolphins Recap
The Miami Dolphins come into this game looking to add on to their 20-17 win over Tampa Bay last time out to sit at 7-9 this season.
Dolphins Get One Last Chance To Play Spoiler
Quinn Ewers has thrown for 485 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on 65% passing while De’Von Achane has a team-high 1,350 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns. Jaylen Waddle has 64 catches for a team-high 910 yards and 6 touchdowns while Achane’s added a team-high 67 catches for 488 yards and 4 touchdowns. Malik Washington has 311 receiving yards and Greg Dulcich has 304 receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, Jordyn Brooks has a team-high 174 total tackles and 3.5 sacks while Tyrel Dodson has 121 total tackles and 5 sacks. Bradley Chubb has a team-high 8.5 sacks and Zach Sleier’s added 5.5 sacks this season. As a unit, Miami’s defense has combined for 39 sacks and 9 interceptions so far this season.
Why the Miami Dolphins will win
- The Patriots have lost four of their last five games as home favorites following a Division win.
- The Dolphins have won three of their last four games as underdogs against the Patriots.
- The Dolphins have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games against the Patriots.
- The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games in January.
Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has scored at least one touchdown in four of his last five appearances in road day games against teams that held a winning record.
- Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 270+ passing yards in four of his last five appearances against the Patriots.
- Greg Dulcich has recorded 18+ receiving yards in each of the Dolphins’ last eight games.
- Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 26+ completions in each of his last three appearances against the Patriots.
- Tua Tagovailoa has the highest interception percentage (3.9%) of any qualified QB this season.
New England Patriots Recap
The New England Patriots come into this game looking to add on to their 42-10 win over the New York Jets last time out to sit at 13-3 this season.
Patriots Still Fighting For 1-Seed
Drake Maye has thrown for 4,203 yards, 30 touchdowns and 8 interceptions on 71.7% passing while TreVeyon Henderson has a team-high 858 rushing yards and 7 TDs. Rhamondre Stevenson has 402 rushing yards and 5 TDs and Drake Maye has 409 rushing yards with 4 TDs while Stefon Diggs has a team-high 82 catches for 970 yards and 4 TDs to lead New England’s receiving group. Kayshon Boutte has 527 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns while Hunter Henry has 712 receiving yards and 7 TDs. Mack Hollins has 46 catches for 550 yards and DeMario Douglas has 418 receiving yards while another four receivers have 200+ receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, Robert Spillane has a team-high 97 total tackles including 48 solo tackles while Harold Landry III has a team-high 8.5 sacks. K’Lavon Chaisson has 6.5 sacks and Milton Williams has 3.5 sacks. As a unit, New England’s defense has combined for 31 sacks and 9 interceptions so far this season.
Why the New England Patriots will win
New England Patriots Player Prop Facts
- TreVeyon Henderson has recorded 75+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Patriots’ last eight games following a win.
- Stefon Diggs has scored a touchdown in four of his five previous appearances in day games at Gillette Stadium against teams that held a losing record.
- Drake Maye has recorded 256+ passing yards in each of the Patriots’ last six games as favorites.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 13+ receiving yards in each of his last six appearances on the East Coast.
- TreVeyon Henderson has recorded 55+ rushing yards in each of the Patriots’ last eight games following a win.
- Drake Maye has recorded 22+ completions in three of the Patriots’ last four games as favorites.
- Heading into Week 18, Drake Maye ranks 1st amongst qualified players for passer rating (112.9) this season.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Patriots’ last six Sunday games played on the East Coast have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Dolphins’ last six games without Greg Dulcich have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the last four Sunday games at Gillette Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction
I’m on New England here. New England still has something to play for here, and the Patriots have shown on plenty of occasions this season that they’re fully capable of blowing out bad teams. Miami’s still starting Quinn Ewers here, and while he was able to get by the Bucs last time out, I don’t expect the same success against this Patriot defense. I think the Patriots take care of business here, so give me New England.
