New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears prediction 11-5-23 NFL Picks
New Orleans Saints (4-4) vs Chicago Bears (2-6)
2023-11-05 13:00:00 EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: New Orleans Saints -7.5 -- Over/Under: 41
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The Chicago Bears and the New Orleans Saints meet in week 9 NFL action from the Caesars Superdome on Sunday afternoon.
Bears Fall To Chargers In Primetime
The Chicago Bears come into this game looking to shake off a 30-13 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers last time out to fall to 2-6 on the year. Justin Fields has thrown for 1,201 yards, 11 touchdowns and 6 interceptions on 61.7% passing while Tyson Bagent has thrown for 477 yards, a touchdown and three picks on 70% passing this season. Khalil Herbert leads the Bears on the ground with 272 rushing yards while DJ Moore has a team-high 44 receptions for 691 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns while Cole Kmet has 319 receiving yards with 3 TDs and Darnell Mooney has 225 receiving yards as well this season. On defense, T.J. Edwards has a team-high 85 total tackles while Chicago’s defense as a whole has combined for 10 sacks and 6 interceptions this season.
Chicago Bears Team Facts
- The Bears have lost each of their last 11 Sunday road games.
- The Bears have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven Sunday road games.
- The Bears have won the first quarter in each of their last three games as road underdogs against NFC opponents.
- The favorites have won the first half in each of the Bears’ last six Week 9 games.
- Each of the Bears’ last six games following a loss have gone OVER the total points line.
Chicago Bears Player Prop Facts
- Justin Fields has recorded 46+ rushing yards in 12 of his last 13 appearances against NFC opponents.
- Justin Fields has recorded 211+ passing yards in four of his last five appearances following a loss.
- Cole Kmet has recorded 27+ receiving yards in each of the Bears’ last five November games.
- Khalil Herbert has recorded 49+ rushing and receiving yards in seven of his last eight appearances against conference opponents.
- D.J. Moore has scored at least one touchdown in three of the Bears’ last four games as underdogs following a loss.
- Justin Fields has thrown four touchdowns in each of his last two appearances following a loss.
- Justin Fields ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for sack percentage (12.9%) this season.
Saints Rout Colts
The New Orleans Saints come into this one on the heels of their 38-27 win over Indianapolis to get back to 4-4 on the year. Derek Carr has thrown for 1,910 yards, 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on 64.5% passing while Alvin Kamara has a team-high 320 rushing yards and 2 TDs. Taysom Hill also has 203 rushing yards with 3 TDs while Chris Olave has a team-leading 517 receiving yards on 44 receptions. Rashid Shaheed and Michael Thomas each have 400+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Demario Davis has a team-high 54 total tackles while Carl Granderson has a team-high 5.5 sacks.
New Orleans Saints Team Facts
- The Saints have lost each of their last four games as home favorites following a win.
- The Saints have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as favorites following a road win.
- The Saints have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six games as home favorites against NFC North opponents.
- The Saints have lost the first quarter in each of their last eight games in November.
- The road team has won the first half in seven of the Saints’ last eight games.
New Orleans Saints Player Prop Facts
- Derek Carr has recorded 249+ passing yards in eight of his 10 previous appearances with his team as a home favorite against NFC opponents.
- Michael Thomas has recorded 70+ receiving yards in seven of his last eight appearances against NFC North opponents.
- Jamaal Williams has recorded 30+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 21 Sunday appearances.
- Alvin Kamara has scored at least one touchdown in nine of his last 10 appearances against NFC North opponents.
- Jamaal Williams has recorded 21+ rushing yards in each of his last 22 appearances against NFC North opponents.
- Alvin Kamara has scored the first touchdown in four of the Saints’ last five games as home favorites against NFC North opponents.
- Jameis Winston has thrown four or more touchdowns in two of his last three appearances against NFC North opponents.
- Jameis Winston has recorded 21+ completions in seven of his last eight November home appearances.
- Rashid Shaheed ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Yards Per Reception (20.8) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Saints rank 32nd in the NFL in average yards per punt this season (42.7).
- The Saints rank 2nd in the NFL in average punt return this season (16.2 yards).
- The Bears rank 32nd in the NFL in sacks this season (10.0).
- The Bears rank 32nd in the NFL in Q3 opponent points per game this season (7.4).
Chris’ Pick
I’m leaning towards the Saints here, mainly because the Bears looked like the Bears we have become accustomed to seeing in last week’s loss to the Chargers. The Saints on the other hand, have gone from an under machine to a team that’s scored 62 points in their last two games and I’m worried for the Bears that they don’t be able to keep up here. The Bears struggled against the Chargers pass rush, and New Orleans has a solid one as well. Give me the Saints.