New York Giants vs Denver Broncos 9/12/21 NFL Picks, Odds, Predictions

The New York Giants meet the Denver Broncos Sunday in week 1 NFL action at MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands. The Denver Broncos are coming off a 5-11 season and will enter the third year under coach Vic Fangio, who is on the hot seat. The New York Giants finished 6-10 last season and are in the second season behind coach Joe Judge.

The Denver Broncos are still looking for their first playoff appearance since winning the Super Bowl in 2015. The Broncos have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, as Courtland Sutton, Noah Want and Jerry Jeudy are above-average receivers and Melvin Gordon III has nearly topped 1,000 rushing yards in three of his last five seasons. Defensively, Bradley Chubb is a rising star at linebacker and a secondary that includes Kyle Fuller, Kareem Jackson and Justin Simmons is more than solid. The return of eight-time Pro Bowler Von Miller also doesn’t hurt the Broncos defense. The talent is there for the Broncos, it’s just a matter of Teddy Bridgewater or Drew Lock settling in at quarterback. 

The New York Giants are looking for their first playoff appearance since 2016 and their first playoff win since 2011 when they won the Super Bowl. The Giants went on a spending spree this offseason to end the drought, and they brought in guys like Kenny Golladay, Kyle Rudolph, Devontae Booker and Adoree’ Jackson. Of course, a lot of the Giants success this season comes down to the improvement of quarterback Daniel Jones and the return of running back Saquon Barkley. If Jones is able to be more accurate with the ball and Barkley is able to return to a Pro Bowl level, the Giants expectations will increase. Until then, the jury is still out on Jones and there’s no guarantee Barkley will be able to hit the ground running this season. The Giants have potential to be a surprise team this season, but there’s a lot of question marks.

The Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite and 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 1. The Giants are 6-17-1 ATS in their last 24 home games and 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games in September. The under is 8-2 in Broncos last 10 games as a favorite. The under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 home games. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

The Giants and the free points at home is intriguing and I almost took the bait. However, the Broncos are the better team from top to bottom and enter the season with less questions. I need to see Jones take that next step and there’s no concrete answer as to what to expect from Barkley. The Broncos have a playoff caliber roster and could push the AFC West if they get consistent production at the quarterback position. I’m just not there yet with the Giants. I’ll lay the reasonable chalk with the Broncos on the road.