Patriots vs Chargers Prediction 1/11/26 NFL Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Patriots vs Chargers prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, January 11th at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this AFC Wild Card matchup. 

New England Patriots Betting Preview

The New England Patriots are 14-3 this season after they defeated Miami by a score of 38-10 in their last game. New England led 14-0 after the first quarter and 17-10 at halftime, before scoring 21 points in the second half for the blowout win. The Patriots out gained Miami by a total of 457-180, went 5-10 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 2-0 in the game. Drake Maye went 14-18 for 191 yards and one touchdown, while Rhamondre Stevenson rushed seven times for 131 yards and two scores. Hunter Henry led the receivers with five catches for 56 yards in the win. 

Prior to that game, New England defeated the Jets by a score of 42-10 and the Ravens by a score of 28-24. The Patriots have won three games in a row and they finished first in the AFC East standings. New England has scored 28.8 points per game with 250.5 passing yards and 128.9 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 18.8 points against per game this season. Drake Maye has thrown for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns, and eight interceptions, while Stefon Diggs has 85 receptions for 1,013 yards and four scores. TreVeyon Henderson has led the ground game with 911 yards and nine scores on 180 carries this season. 

Los Angeles Chargers Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Chargers are 11-6 this year after they lost to Denver by a score of 19-3 in their last game. Los Angeles trailed 10-3 at halftime and they were outscored 9-0 in the second half in the low scoring loss. The Chargers were out gained by a total of 240-217, went 7-20 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 2-0 in the game. Trey Lance went 20-44 for 136 yards and one interception, while also rushing for 69 yards on nine carries. Keenan Allen led the receivers with seven receptions for 36 yards in the loss. 

Prior to that game, Los Angeles lost to the Texans by a score of 20-16, but did beat the Cowboys by a score of 34-17 before that. The Chargers have lost two games in a row and they finished second in the AFC West standings. Los Angeles has scored 21.6 points per game with 212.2 passing yards and 121.6 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 20.0 points against per game this season. Justin Herbert has thrown for 3,727 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, while Ladd McConkey has 66 catches for 789 yards and six scores. Omarion Hampton has rushed for 545 yards and four scores on 124 carries this year. 

Why the New England Patriots will win

• The Patriots have won each of their last 10 games as favorites.
• The Chargers have lost each of their last six postseason games against AFC East opponents.
• The favorites have covered the spread in seven of the Patriots’ last eight games at Gillette Stadium.
• The Chargers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games as road underdogs against AFC East opponents.
• The Patriots have won the first quarter in four of their last five Sunday games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Patriots have won the first half in each of their last 12 games following a win.
• The Patriots have scored the first touchdown in seven of their last eight games as favorites against AFC West opponents.

Why the Los Angeles Chargers will win

• The Chargers have won each of their last four games as underdogs without Trey Lance.
• The Patriots have lost each of their last five home games against AFC West opponents.
• The Chargers have covered the spread in each of their last seven games as road underdogs following a road loss.
• The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six home games following a home win.
• The road team has won the first quarter in each of the Chargers’ last six Wild Card Round games.
• The Patriots have lost the first half in seven of their last eight games against AFC West opponents.
• The Chargers have scored the first touchdown in six of their last eight games against AFC East opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Patriots’ last seven Sunday games played on the East Coast have gone OVER the total points line.
• Nine of the Chargers’ last 10 Sunday games played on the East Coast have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the last five Sunday games at Gillette Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

New England Patriots Player Prop Facts

• TreVeyon Henderson has scored two or more touchdowns in each of the Patriots’ last three home games against AFC opponents.
• TreVeyon Henderson has recorded 55+ rushing yards in eight of the Patriots’ last nine games following a win.
• TreVeyon Henderson has recorded 75+ rushing and receiving yards in eight of the Patriots’ last nine games following a win.
• Austin Hooper has recorded 10+ receiving yards in 12 of his last 13 appearances against AFC West opponents.
• Drake Maye has recorded 256+ passing yards in six of the Patriots’ last seven games as favorites.
• Joshua Dobbs has scored a touchdown in each of his last four appearances against teams that held a winning record.
• Drake Maye ranked 1st amongst qualified players for passer rating (113.5) during the reg. season.

Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Facts

• Ladd McConkey has scored a touchdown in each of his last four appearances following a loss.
• Kimani Vidal has recorded 117+ rushing yards in three of the Chargers’ last four games following a loss.
• Will Dissly has recorded 18+ receiving yards in each of his last four appearances against AFC East opponents.
• Quentin Johnston has recorded 48+ rushing and receiving yards in five of his last six Sunday road appearances.
• Cameron Dicker ranked 3rd in the NFL in made field goals (38) during the reg. season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Patriots – two different players have recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Wild Card Round.
• Patriots – two different players have recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Wild Card Round.
• Chargers – five different players have recorded 50+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Wild Card Round.
• Chargers – two different players have recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Wild Card Round.

Patriots vs Chargers Prediction 

New England comes into this contest on a three game winning streak and they have scored at least 31 points in four of their last five games. The Patriots have been elite offensively, but they did allow 24 to Baltimore and 35 to Buffalo in two of their last four. Los Angeles has lost two in a row, but they did rest their starters last time out. The Chargers have been inconsistent on offense this year, but I think they will find some success against a NE defense that I don’t love. Take the over in this matchup. 

David Racey is 113-95 (54%) in the NFL this season and is one of the top NFL cappers on the NFL Leaderboard. Click here for his premium plays for this week!