Patriots vs Panthers Prediction 9/28/25 NFL Picks Today

The Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots meet Sunday in NFL action at Gillette Stadium. Here’s a Patriots vs Panthers Prediction. This article will include a Patriots vs Panthers Pick.

Carolina Panthers Betting Preview

The Carolina Panthers lost to the Cardinals, beat the Falcons, and they play the Dolphins next. The Carolina Panthers have lost 7 of their last 10 games. Bryce Young is completing 60.5 percent of his passes for 603 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Tetairoa McMillan and Ja’Tavion Sanders have combined for 110 receiving yards on 25 catches, while Chuba Hubbard has 10 receptions.

The Carolina Panthers ground game is averaging 90.7 yards per contest, and Chuba Hubbard leads the way with 168 yards on 43 carries. Defensively, Carolina is allowing 17.7 points and 334.3 yards per game. Tre’von Moehrig leads the Carolina Panthers with 26 tackles, Princely Umanmielen has 1 sack and Jaycee Horn has 1 interception.

New England Patriots Betting Preview

The New England Patriots lost to the Steelers, beat the Dolphins, and play the Bills next. The New England Patriots have lost 15 of their last 19 games. Drake Maye is completing 72.6 percent of his passes for 785 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Hunter Henry and Kayshon Boutte have combined for 312 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, while Rhamondre Stevenson has 10 receptions.

The New England Patriots ground game is averaging 100.3 yards per contest, and Rhamondre Stevenson leads the way with 87 yards on 22 carries. Defensively, New England is allowing 22.7 points and 316.7 yards per game. Robert Spillane leads the New England Patriots with 21 tackles, Harold Landry III has 3.5 sacks and Jaylinn Hawkins has 1 interception.

Carolina Panthers @ New England Patriots Betting Trends: Week 4

Why the New England Patriots will win

• The Panthers have lost 14 of their last 15 road games played on the East Coast.
• The favorites have won each of the Patriots’ last seven Week 4 games.
• The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games against AFC East opponents.
• The home team has covered the spread in six of the Patriots’ last seven Week 4 games.
• The Panthers have lost the first quarter in four of their last six games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Panthers have lost the first half in each of their last eight road games.

Why the Carolina Panthers will win

• The Patriots have lost each of their last eight games before a Division game.
• The underdogs have won three of the Patriots’ last four games.
• The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight home games in September.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in 10 of the Panthers’ last 12 games.
• The Panthers have won the first half in four of their last six games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).
• The Patriots have lost the first quarter in five of their last six games as home favorites against NFC opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Patriots’ last seven games against NFC South opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seven of the Panthers’ last eight Week 4 road games have gone OVER the total points line.

New England Patriots Player Prop Facts

• Rhamondre Stevenson has scored a touchdown in four of his last five appearances with the Patriots as favorites against teams with a losing record.
• Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 43+ rushing yards in each of the Patriots’ last seven games against NFC opponents.
• Austin Hooper has recorded 17+ receiving yards in each of his last 11 appearances against NFC South opponents.
• Stefon Diggs has recorded 46+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his 10 previous Week 4 appearances.
• Drake Maye has recorded 230+ passing yards in four of the Patriots’ last five Sunday games.
• Drake Maye has recorded 24+ completions in four of the Patriots’ last five Sunday home games.
• Heading into Week 4, Drake Maye has the equal-highest completion percentage in a single game (min. 10 ATT) this season (82.6% vs Dolphins, Week 2).

Carolina Panthers Player Prop Facts

• Chuba Hubbard has scored a touchdown in each of his last five appearances following a win.
• Andy Dalton has recorded 243+ passing yards in eight of his last nine September road appearances against AFC opponents.
• Chuba Hubbard has recorded 56+ rushing yards in each of the Panthers’ last six games against AFC opponents.
• David Moore has recorded 20+ receiving yards in each of his four previous appearances against AFC East opponents.
• Chuba Hubbard has recorded 76+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Panthers’ last six September games.
• Chuba Hubbard has scored the last touchdown in three of his last four road appearances on the East Coast.
• Andy Dalton has recorded 26+ completions in three of his last four September road appearances.
• Heading into Week 4, Bryce Young has recorded the most pass attempts in a single game this season (55 vs Cardinals, Week 2).

Matchup/League Facts

• Patriots – three different players have recorded 70+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
• Patriots – three different players have recorded 80+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
• Heading into Week 4, the Panthers rank 32nd in the NFL in sacks (1.0) this season.
• Heading into Week 4, the Panthers rank T1st in the NFL in 4th down attempts (8) this season.

Patriots vs Panthers Prediction

The Panthers are one of the worst teams in the league, just like they were a year ago. I understand they’re going to be underdogs nearly every week. However, that doesn’t mean we throw opponents all of this chalk. The Patriots aren’t world beaters, and they’ve had issues in pass defense, while the offense isn’t finishing drives. The Pats have scored 14 or fewer points in 2 of their first 3 games.

Also, the Patriots are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. The Patriots haven’t won a game as a favorite since September 2023. That was two years ago, folks. The Panthers have quietly covered 7 of their last 10 games and are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when underdogs of 3 or more points. Give me the Panthers and the points.