Patriots vs Steelers Prediction 9/21/25 NFL Picks Today

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) vs. New England Patriots (1-1)
September 21, 2025 1:00 pm EDT
The Line: New England Patriots +1.5; Over/Under: 44.5
(Get latest betting odds)

In this article we will formulate a Patriots vs Steelers prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, September 21st at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 3 matchup.

New England Patriots Betting Preview

The New England Patriots are 1-1 this year after they defeated Miami by a score of 33-27 last week. New England led 12-0 after the first quarter and 15-14 at halftime, but they needed the last 10 points in the fourth to escape with the win. The Patriots were out gained by a total of 358-333, went 7-12 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a margin of 1-0 in the game. Drake Maye went 19-23 for 230 yards and two touchdowns, while Rhamondre Stevenson rushed 11 times for 54 yards. Stevenson also led the receivers with five catches for 88 yards in the game. The NE defense recorded five sacks and six tackles for loss in the victory.

New England started their season with a 20-13 loss to the Raiders in week one at home. The Patriots are averaging 23.0 points per game with 243.5 passing yards and 91.0 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 23.5 points against per game this season. Drake Maye has completed 71% of his passes for 517 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, while Kayshon Boutte has caught seven passes for 119 yards and one score. Rhamondre Stevenson is the leading rusher with 69 yards on 18 carries so far this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 1-1 this season after they lost to Seattle by a score of 31-17 in their last game. Pittsburgh trailed 7-6 after the first quarter, but they led 14-7 at the half, before allowing the next 17 points in the loss. The Steelers were out gained by a total of 395-267, went 5-15 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at two in the game. Aaron Rodgers went 18-33 for 203 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, while Jaylen Warren carried the ball 14 times for 48 yards. Warren was also the leading receiver with four catches for 86 yards in the loss. The Pittsburgh defense recorded two sacks and six tackles for loss in the defeat.

Pittsburgh started the 2025 season with a 34-32 win over the Jets in week one. The Steelers are averaging 25.5 points per game with 206.5 passing yards and 62.5 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 31.5 points against per game this season. Aaron Rodgers has completed 63.5% of his passes for 447 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions, while DK Metcalf has caught seven passes for 103 yards and one score. Jaylen Warren has led the rushing attack with 25 carries for 85 yards this year.

Why the Patriots will beat the Steelers

The Steelers have lost four of their last five games as favorites against AFC East opponents.
The underdogs have won each of the Patriots’ last three games.
The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games.
The underdogs have covered the spread in four of the Patriots’ last five games.
The Patriots have scored the first touchdown in eight of their last nine games against the Steelers.
The Steelers have lost the first quarter in each of their last nine games.
The underdogs have won the first half in each of the Steelers’ last 11 Week 3 games.

Total Points Facts

Each of the Patriots’ last six games as home underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
Each of the Steelers’ last four games as road favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
Five of the last six Sunday games at Gillette Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

New England Patriots Player Prop Facts

Drake Maye has recorded 230+ passing yards in three of the Patriots’ last four Sunday games.
Drake Maye has recorded 29+ completions in each of the Patriots’ last three games following a win.
Drake Maye has recorded 26+ rushing yards in seven of the Patriots’ last eight games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
Stefon Diggs has recorded 49+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his seven previous appearances at Gillette Stadium.
Joshua Dobbs has scored a touchdown in six of his last seven appearances with his team as an underdog.
Austin Hooper has recorded 19+ receiving yards in each of the Patriots’ last nine games as underdogs.
Heading into Week 3, Antonio Gibson ranks 1st in the NFL in kick return yards (239) this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Facts

Jonnu Smith has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last seven appearances against AFC opponents.
Aaron Rodgers has recorded 233+ passing yards in each of his last seven appearances with his team as a favorite against AFC East opponents.
Aaron Rodgers has recorded 22+ completions in each of his last four September appearances with his team as a favorite against AFC East opponents.
Pat Freiermuth has recorded 27+ receiving yards in each of the Steelers’ last seven September games.
Jonnu Smith has recorded 44+ rushing and receiving yards in six of his last seven appearances against AFC East opponents.
Heading into Week 3, Aaron Rodgers has recorded the longest completion in a single game this season (65 yards vs Seahawks, Week 2).

Matchup/League Facts

Patriots – three different players have recorded 60+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
Patriots – two different players have recorded 80+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
Steelers – three different players have recorded 60+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
Steelers – three different players have recorded 70+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.

David Racey is 6-3 (67%) in his last nine NFL plays this season. Click here for his premium plays for this week!