Ravens vs Falcons Prediction 10/11/26 NFL Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Ravens vs Falcons Prediction for this NFL Week 4 game on Sunday, October 11^th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

Atlanta Falcons Preview

The Atlanta Falcons have a 2-2 record this season are sitting on the 1st place of the NFC South. They are coming off a 45-24 away win against the Saints and will face the Bears, the 49ers and the Buccaneers next.

Offensively, the Falcons average 24 points per game, ranking 15th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 23 points per game, which is 15th. Atlanta averages 360.5 total yards per game (179.5 passing and 181 rushing), while allowing 313 total yards per game (48.3 rushing and 264.8 passing).

Michael Penix leads the Falcons with 479 passing yards with 73.3% completed passes and two touchdowns. Bijan Robinson leads the team in rushing yards with 494, while Drake London has 20 receptions for a team-high 370 receiving yards. Defensively, Xavier Watts has a team-high 24 total tackles (15 of them solo), while Za’Darius Smith leads the team in sacks, with 2.5.

Baltimore Ravens Preview

The Baltimore Ravens have a 3-1 record this season are sitting on the 1st place of the AFC North. They are coming off a 24-18 home win against the Titans and will face the Browns, the Bengals and the Bills next.

Offensively, the Ravens average 29 points per game, ranking 7th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 24 points per game, which is 19th. Baltimore averages 395 total yards per game (241.5 passing and 153.5 rushing), while allowing 315.3 total yards per game (100 rushing and 215.3 passing).

Lamar Jackson leads the Ravens with 967 passing yards with 70.8% completed passes and six touchdowns. Derrick Henry leads the team in rushing yards with 374, while Zay Flowers has 18 receptions for a team-high 352 receiving yards. Defensively, Roquan Smith has a team-high 34 total tackles (11 of them solo), while Tavius Robinson leads the team in sacks, with 2.

Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends: Week 5

Why the Atlanta Falcons will win

• The Falcons have won each of their last five home games following a win.
• The Ravens have lost four of their last five games following a win.
• The Ravens have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games following a win.
• The Falcons have covered the spread in four of their last five home games following a win.
• The favorites have won the first half in each of the Ravens’ last five games.
• The Falcons have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four games following a win.
• The Falcons have won the first quarter in four of their last five home games against teams that held a winning record.

Why the Baltimore Ravens will win

• The Ravens have won each of their last five games as road underdogs against NFC opponents.
• The Falcons have lost each of their last five games as favorites against AFC North opponents.
• The Ravens have covered the spread in each of their last seven games as underdogs before a Division game.
• The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 14 games against AFC North opponents.
• The Falcons have lost the first quarter in each of their last three October games as home favorites.
• The Ravens have won the first half in each of their last six games.
• The Ravens have scored the first touchdown in each of their last five games following a win.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Ravens’ last six games as underdogs without Tyler Huntley have gone OVER the total points line.
• Ten of the Falcons’ last 11 home games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts

• Bijan Robinson has scored the first touchdown in three of the Falcons’ last four games following a win.
• Michael Penix Jr. has recorded 20+ completions in four of his last five home appearances.
• Brian Robinson has recorded 36+ rushing yards in four of his last five October home appearances.
• Michael Penix Jr. has recorded 250+ passing yards in four of his last five home appearances.
• Bijan Robinson has recorded 147+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Falcons’ last four games following a road win.
• Kyle Pitts has recorded 35+ receiving yards in each of the Falcons’ last 10 October games as favorites.
• Bijan Robinson has scored a touchdown in each of the Falcons’ last seven games as slight favorites (<-3.5 points).
• Heading into Week 5, Bijan Robinson has recorded the most rushing yards in a single game this season (194 vs Packers, Week 3).

Baltimore Ravens Player Prop Facts

• Derrick Henry has scored the first touchdown in four of the Ravens’ last five games following a win.
• Derrick Henry has recorded 97+ rushing yards in five of his last six October appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Tyler Huntley has recorded 186+ passing yards in three of his last four appearances as a starter.
• Derrick Henry has recorded 102+ rushing and receiving yards in six of his last seven appearances with his team as an underdog following a win.
• Derrick Henry has recorded 18+ receiving yards in four of his last five appearances with his team as an underdog following a win.
• Derrick Henry has scored at least one touchdown in nine of the Ravens’ last 10 games following a home win.
• Heading into Week 5, Derrick Henry ranks T1st in the NFL in touchdowns (7) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 5, the Falcons rank 1st in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (48.3) this season.
• Heading into Week 5, the Falcons rank T1st in the NFL in Q3 win percentage (75.0) this season.
• Heading into Week 5, the Ravens rank 1st in the NFL in Q1 points per game (8.8) this season.
• Heading into Week 5, the Ravens rank 1st in the NFL in H1 points per game (21.5) this season.

Ravens vs Falcons Prediction

In this Ravens vs Falcons Prediction, the Falcons are coming as -3.5 home favorites. Both teams have been in good form, coming into this matchup with back-to-back wins, but the Ravens have failed to cover in their last three games. The Falcons’ offense has exploded in their last two games, having scored 80 points combined in that span and combined with the home court advantage, I cannot fade them. The Ravens have a better offense and have been perfect on the road, but the value here lies with the home team. Take the Falcons and lay the -3.5 points in this one.