Saints vs Falcons Prediction 10/5/26 NFL Picks Today

The Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints meet Monday in NFL action at Caesars Superdome. Here’s a Saints vs. Falcons Prediction. This article will include a Saints vs. Falcons Pick.

Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview

The Atlanta Falcons lost to the Panthers, beat the Packers, and they play the Ravens next. The Atlanta Falcons have split their last 12 games. Michael Penix Jr. is completing 72 percent of his passes for 256 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Bijan Robinson and Drake London have combined for 392 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, while Jahan Dotson has 4 receptions.

The Atlanta Falcons ground game is averaging 173 yards per contest, and Bijan Robinson leads the way with 349 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, Atlanta is allowing 22.7 points and 310.7 yards per game. Jessie Bates III leads the Atlanta Falcons with 17 tackles, Za’Darius Smith has 2.5 sacks, and Xavier Watts has 1 interception.

New Orleans Saints Betting Preview

The New Orleans Saints beat the Ravens, lost to the Raiders, and they play the Vikings next. The New Orleans Saints have split their last 12 games. Tyler Shough is completing 68.9 percent of his passes for 917 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Juwan Johnson and Chris Olave have combined for 548 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, while Devaughn Vele has 15 receptions.

The New Orleans Saints ground game is averaging 101.3 yards per contest, and Travis Etienne Jr. leads the way with 128 yards on 30 carries. Defensively, New Orleans is allowing 27.7 points and 340.3 yards per game. Kaden Elliss leads the New Orleans Saints with 24 tackles, Chase Young has 3.5 sacks, and Julian Blackmon has 1 interception.

Why the New Orleans Saints will win

• The Falcons have lost each of their last 11 games as road underdogs following a win.
• The home team has won six of the last seven games between the Falcons and Saints.
• The Saints have covered the spread in each of their last eight games without Alvin Kamara.
• The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as road underdogs following a win.
• The Saints have won the first half in each of their last four games as favorites following a loss.
• The home team has won the first quarter in each of the Saints’ last five games.

Why the Atlanta Falcons will win

• The Saints have lost each of their last five games as favorites without Juwan Johnson.
• The Falcons have won each of their last four games as road underdogs against NFC opponents.
• The Saints have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine Monday games.
• The Falcons have covered the spread in eight of their last nine Monday games as underdogs.
• The Saints have lost the first half in nine of their last 10 games.
• The Falcons have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six games against the Saints.
• The Saints have lost the first quarter in six of their last seven games against teams that held a losing record.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Saints’ last seven Monday games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Falcons’ last six games as road underdogs following a road win have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the last five games between NFC South teams has gone UNDER the total points line.

New Orleans Saints Player Prop Facts

• Chris Olave has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last three appearances against teams that held a losing record.
• Alvin Kamara has recorded 51+ rushing yards in each of his last seven Week 4 appearances.
• Tyler Shough has recorded 259+ passing yards in each of the Saints’ last three games against NFC opponents.
• Alvin Kamara has recorded 72+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his eight previous Week 4 appearances.
• Alvin Kamara has recorded 28+ receiving yards in each of the Saints’ last eight October games as favorites.
• Tyler Shough has recorded 24+ completions in each of the Saints’ last four home games.
• Heading into Week 4, Chris Olave ranks T1st in the NFL in receptions (27) this season.

Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts

• Michael Penix Jr. has recorded 241+ passing yards in three of his last four appearances against NFC opponents.
• Austin Hooper has recorded 11+ receiving yards in each of his last 14 appearances with the Falcons as underdogs against NFC opponents.
• Bijan Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Falcons’ last five road games.
• Khalil Herbert has recorded 68+ rushing and receiving yards in seven of his eight previous October appearances with his team as an underdog against NFC opponents.
• Khalil Herbert has recorded 72+ rushing yards in seven of his eight previous October appearances with his team as an underdog against NFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 4, Bijan Robinson ranks T1st in the NFL in rushing attempts (66) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 4, the Saints rank T1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage against (0.0%) this season.
• Heading into Week 4, the Saints have recorded the equal-most losses in games when recording more total yards than their opponent this season (2).
• Falcons – two different players have recorded 90+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
• Heading into Week 4, the Falcons rank 1st in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (47.7) this season.

Saints vs Falcons Prediction

The Saints should get the benefit of the doubt at home, but that Raiders performance rubbed me the wrong way. The Saints have offensive line issues, struggle to run the ball, and Shough isn’t handling the pressure well. Etienne is also out due to a hamstring issue. The Falcons looked much better with Penix under center, and he has weapons around him. The Falcons have legit upside if Penix can continue to find his footing. The underdog has covered 8 of the last 10 games between the Falcons and Saints. I’ll grab the points with the Falcons in a game they could easily win outright.