Steelers vs Dolphins Prediction 12/15/25 NFL Picks Today

The Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers meet Monday in NFL action at Acrisure Stadium. Here’s a Steelers vs Dolphins Prediction. This article will include a Steelers vs Dolphins Pick.

Miami Dolphins Betting Preview

The Miami Dolphins beat the Jets and Saints, and they play the Bengals next. The Dolphins have won 4 straight games. Tua Tagovailoa is completing 66.9 percent of his passes for 2,407 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane have combined for 1,195 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, while Malik Washington has 40 receptions.

The Miami Dolphins ground game is averaging 126.5 yards per contest, and De’Von Achane leads the way with 1,126 yards and 7 touchdowns. Defensively, Miami is allowing 22.8 points and 334.5 yards per game. Jordyn Brooks leads the Miami Dolphins with 142 tackles, Bradley Chubb has 6.5 sacks and Rasul Douglas has 2 interceptions.

Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Steelers lost to the Bills, beat the Ravens, and they play the Lions next. The Pittsburgh Steelers have lost 5 of their last 8 games. Aaron Rodgers is completing 65.4 percent of his passes for 2,370 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. DK Metcalf and Calvin Austin III have combined for 1,062 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns, while Pat Freiermuth has 28 receptions.

The Pittsburgh Steelers ground game is averaging 89.2 yards per contest, and Jaylen Warren leads the way with 652 yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, Pittsburgh is allowing 23.9 points and 369.3 yards per game. Payton Wilson leads the Pittsburgh Steelers with 109 tackles, T.J. Watt has 7 sacks and Brandin Echols has 2 interceptions.

Why the Pittsburgh Steelers will win

• The Steelers have won 22 of their last 23 Monday home games.
• The Dolphins have lost each of their last 11 games as underdogs following a win.
• The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight games as underdogs following a win.
• The Steelers have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as home favorites against AFC opponents.
• The Steelers have scored the first touchdown in each of their last five games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• The Dolphins have lost the first quarter in each of their last eight Week 15 road games against AFC opponents.
• The Steelers have won the first half in each of their last six games at Acrisure Stadium.

Why the Miami Dolphins will win

• The Steelers have lost each of their last six games against AFC East opponents on a winning streak.
• Tyrel Dodson’s team has won each of its last four games with him playing against Jonnu Smith.
• The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as home favorites against AFC East opponents.
• The Dolphins have covered the spread in each of their last three games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Dolphins have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six Monday games.
• The Steelers have lost the first quarter in each of their last nine December games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• The Steelers have lost the first half in each of their last five Week 15 games as favorites.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Steelers’ last eight home games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Dolphins’ last six games without Greg Dulcich have gone OVER the total points line.
• Three of the last four Monday games at Acrisure Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Facts

• D.K. Metcalf has scored a touchdown in five of his last six appearances with his team as a favorite against AFC East opponents.
• Aaron Rodgers has recorded 229+ passing yards in each of his last seven Monday appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Aaron Rodgers has recorded 22+ completions in each of his last seven Monday appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Jonnu Smith has scored the last touchdown in three of his last four December appearances against AFC opponents.
• Jonnu Smith has recorded 26+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last eight appearances with his team as a favorite following a win.
• Jaylen Warren has recorded 25+ receiving yards in each of the Steelers’ last eight December games against AFC opponents.
• Aaron Rodgers has recorded 11+ rushing yards in seven of his last eight Week 15 appearances.
• Derrick Harmon has two sacks through his first five career games – most by any player since Jalen Carter, (2023).

Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts

• Jaylen Waddle has scored a touchdown in four of the Dolphins’ last five road games.
• De’Von Achane has recorded 92+ rushing yards in each of the Dolphins’ last four games.
• Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 240+ passing yards in each of his last eight appearances following a road win.
• Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 22+ completions in each of his last six appearances with the Dolphins as underdogs following a win.
• Greg Dulcich has recorded 18+ receiving yards in each of the Dolphins’ last five games.
• Jaylen Waddle has recorded 71+ rushing and receiving yards in five of his last six December appearances against AFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 15, De’Von Achane ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Yards Per Carry (5.8) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Steelers – two different players have recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 15.
• Steelers – two different players have recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 15.
• Dolphins – two different players have recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 15.
• Dolphins – two different players have recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 15.

Steelers vs Dolphins Prediction

The Steelers are going to get the benefit of the doubt because they’re at home and the Dolphins have a long history of peeing down their leg on prime-time. However, the Steelers’ defense has been underwhelming this season, and Rodgers often looks like he can’t move in the pocket. The Steelers receivers have also had issues getting open. The Dolphins have turned their season around and remain in the playoff hunt as the wins pile up. Some are going to say the Dolphins can’t win this game because Tua struggles in the cold. Sure, but the fish are winning because the offense has leaned into a dominant rushing attack.

The Dolphins are 0-7 SU this season when throwing the ball 30-plus times, but 6-0 SU when running the ball 30-plus times this season. Assuming coaches are aware of the trend, Tua won’t be asked to do much. Also, this Dolphins’ defense has settled in as the season plays out, allowing an average of 13.25 points during their four-game winning streak. Give me the points in a game I fully expect the Dolphins to win outright.