Steelers vs Falcons Prediction 9/13/26 NFL Picks Today

Atlanta Falcons (0-0) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0)
September 13, 2026 1:00 pm EDT
The Line: Pittsburgh Steelers -6; Over/Under: 41.5
(Get latest betting odds)

The Atlanta Falcons and Pittsburgh Steelers meet Sunday in NFL action at Acrisure Stadium. Here’s a Steelers vs. Falcons Prediction. This article will include a Steelers vs Falcons Pick.

Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview

The Falcons haven’t made the playoffs since the 2017 season and begins the Kevin Stefanski era. The Falcons have won 8 or fewer games in each of their last 8 seasons.

The Falcons have a quarterback issue as Michael Penix and Tua Tagovailoa are dealing with injuries, which means Cooper Rush gets the nod. Not ideal, folks. Obviously, there’s talent on the offense in running back Bijan Robinson, wide receiver Drake London, and tight end Kyle Pitts. However, if there’s no answer at QB, it probably doesn’t matter. Defensively, the Falcons have a respectable secondary with A.J. Terrell, Jessie Bates III, and Xavier Watts holding down the fort. The Falcons have talent on paper to be a surprise team, but the coaching changes, the lost pass rush, and a neon sign question mark at quarterback do make me question if the playoff drought ends in Atlanta.

Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Preview

The Steelers have won 10 games in each of the last 3 seasons and begin the Mike McCarthy era. The Steelers have won double-digit games in 8 of their last 12 seasons.

Aaron Rodgers returns at quarterback in possibly his last season, and he has weapons in DK Metcalf and the newly acquired Michael Pittman. A running back duo of Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle is solid as well. If Rodgers can find the mountain of youth, there’s potential. The defense remains the strength of the Steelers with guys like T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, Cam Heyward, and Keeanu Benton. This unit can get after the quarterback, is physical, and usually sets the tone each week. The Steelers have a high floor, and there’s familiarity between coach and quarterback. The defense is still strong. The Steelers should make the playoffs, but how far they can go will come down to how their old man quarterback looks.

Why the Pittsburgh Steelers will win

The Falcons have lost 12 of their last 13 games against AFC North opponents.
The Steelers have won nine of their last 10 games against NFC South opponents.
The Steelers have covered the spread in each of their last 10 games against NFC South opponents.
The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 13 games against AFC North opponents.
The Steelers have scored the first touchdown in 16 of their last 19 games as home favorites against NFC opponents.
The Steelers have won the first quarter in nine of their last 10 home games against NFC South opponents.
The Falcons have lost the first half in each of their last seven road games against AFC North opponents.

Why the Atlanta Falcons will win

The road team has won each of the Steelers’ last six Week 1 games.
The Steelers have lost four of their last five games as favorites without T.J. Watt.
The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight home openers.
The Falcons have covered the spread in five of their last six September games as road underdogs.
The Steelers have lost the first quarter in each of their last five September games as home favorites.
The Falcons have won the first half in three of their last four games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).

Total Points Facts

Seven of the Steelers’ last eight games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Each of the Falcons’ last five games as underdogs without Kyle Pitts have gone UNDER the total points line.
Three of the last four Sunday games at Acrisure Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Facts

Rico Dowdle has scored the first touchdown in three of his last four appearances with his team as a favorite.
D.K. Metcalf has scored at least one touchdown in each of his four previous appearances against the Falcons.
Jaylen Warren has recorded 68+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last four appearances against NFC opponents.
Rico Dowdle has recorded 45+ rushing yards in 10 of his last 11 Sunday appearances.
Aaron Rodgers has recorded 246+ passing yards in nine of his 10 previous appearances against the Falcons.
D.K. Metcalf has recorded 64+ receiving yards in each of his last eight appearances against NFC South opponents.
Aaron Rodgers has recorded 21+ completions in each of his 10 previous appearances against the Falcons.
Chris Boswell ranked T1st in the AFC for 50+ yard field goals made (9) last season.

Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts

Drake London has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four appearances against AFC opponents.
Brian Robinson has recorded 20+ rushing yards in each of his 11 previous September appearances.
Cooper Rush has recorded 181+ passing yards in three of his last four road appearances as a starter.
Bijan Robinson has recorded 168+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Falcons’ last three road games.
Austin Hooper has recorded 17+ receiving yards in each of his last 14 regular season appearances with the Falcons as underdogs.
Kyle Pitts recorded the equal-most receiving touchdowns in a single game last season (3 vs Buccaneers, Week 15).

Matchup/League Facts

Steelers – two different players recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game last season – equal-most in the NFL.
Steelers – two different players recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game last season – equal-most in the NFL.
The Falcons ranked 32nd in the NFL in average kickoff return (22.9 yards) last season.
Falcons – only team with 3+ players to record 800+ receiving yards last season (Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Bijan Robinson).