Texans vs Bills Prediction 9/13/26 NFL Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Texans vs Bills prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, September 13th at Reliant Stadium in Houston, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 1 matchup.

Houston Texans Betting Preview

The Houston Texans went 12-5 last season and they finished second in the AFC South standings, one game behind the Jaguars in first. Houston started the season with a 14-9 loss to the Rams and followed that up with a 20-19 loss to the Buccaneers. The Texans were just 3-5 through eight games, but they won each of their last nine games to finish the regular season strong. Houston played great defense down the stretch, as they allowed 21 or fewer in seven of their last eight games. The Texans did defeat the Steelers 30-6 in the playoffs, but lost to the Patriots by a score of 28-16. Houston scored 23.8 points per game in 2025, while they allowed 17.4 points against per game on defense. 

In the preseason, Houston went 0-3, which was dead last in the AFC South. The Texans lost to the Chargers by a score of 27-7, lost to the Raiders by a score of 22-20, and lost to the Panthers by a score of 16-13 in their three games. Houston will have CJ Stroud at quarterback with David Montgomery at running back and Nico Collins as the #1 receiver. 

Buffalo Bills Betting Preview

The Buffalo Bills were 12-5 last year and they finished second in the AFC East, which was two games behind the Patriots in first. Buffalo started the season with a 41-40 win against the Ravens and a 30-10 win over the Jets. The Bills were 7-4 through 11 games, but they went 5-1 in their last six. Buffalo had a great offense last year and they scored 35+ points in four of their last eight games. The Bills defeated the Jaguars by a score of 27-24 in the playoffs, but lost to the Broncos by a score of 33-30 in overtime. Buffalo scored 28.3 points per game in 2025, while they allowed 21.5 points against per game on defense. 

In the preseason, Buffalo went 3-0, which was first in the AFC East. The Bills defeated the Panthers by a score of 29-14, defeated the Browns by a score of 31-7, and defeated the Steelers by a score of 28-27 in their three games. Buffalo will have Josh Allen at quarterback with James Cook at running back and DJ Moore at receiver. 

Why the Houston Texans will win

• The home team has won each of the last eight games between the Bills and Texans.
• The Bills have lost each of their last six games at Reliant Stadium.
• The home team has covered the spread in each of the Texans’ last six Week 1 games.
• The Bills have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four road games without Dawson Knox.
• The Texans have won the first quarter in six of their last eight Sunday games as underdogs.
• The Texans have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five home games against AFC East opponents.
• The Texans have won the first half in each of their last six home games against AFC East opponents.

Why the Buffalo Bills will win

• The Bills have won nine of their last 10 games in September.
• The Texans have lost each of their last four games without Jadeveon Clowney.
• The Texans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games without Jadeveon Clowney.
• The road team has covered the spread in four of the Texans’ last five games.
• The Bills have won the first quarter in each of their last four season openers against AFC opponents.
• The Bills have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six Week 1 games.
• The Bills have won the first half in each of their eight previous September games against AFC South opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Bills’ last eight road games in September have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Texans’ last seven games in September have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the last four Sunday games at Reliant Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

Houston Texans Player Prop Facts

• Nico Collins has scored a touchdown in each of the Texans’ last four home games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).
• Woody Marks has recorded 48+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last seven regular season appearances against AFC opponents.
• C.J. Stroud has recorded 233+ passing yards in six of the Texans’ last seven September games against AFC opponents.
• Woody Marks has recorded 44+ rushing yards in each of his last seven regular season appearances against AFC opponents.
• Kayshon Boutte has recorded 28+ receiving yards in each of his last nine regular season appearances with his team as a home underdog.
• C.J. Stroud has recorded 20+ completions in each of the Texans’ last seven September games against AFC opponents.
• Ka’imi Fairbairn ranked 1st in the NFL in made field goals (44) last season.

Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts

• James Cook has scored a touchdown in each of the Bills’ last five regular season games against AFC South opponents.
• Josh Allen has recorded 21+ completions in each of the Bills’ last nine games as favorites against AFC South opponents.
• Dawson Knox has recorded 15+ receiving yards in 14 of the Bills’ last 15 games.
• Josh Allen has recorded 35+ rushing yards in each of the Bills’ last six September games as road favorites.
• Josh Allen has recorded 232+ passing yards in each of the Bills’ last seven Week 1 games.
• D.J. Moore has recorded 50+ rushing and receiving yards in 12 of his last 13 appearances with his team as a favorite against AFC opponents.
• James Cook ranked 1st in the NFL in rushing yards (1621) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Texans – 16 different players recorded at least one touchdown last season – equal-most in the NFL.
• Texans – two different players recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game last season – equal-most in the NFL.
• Bills – two different players recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game last season – equal-most in the NFL.
• Bills – two different players recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game last season – equal-most in the NFL.

Texans vs Bills Prediction 

Both of these teams went 12-5 last year and made the playoffs, so this is a great matchup for week one. Buffalo has one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but Houston is an elite defensive team. The Texans are led by their defense, as Stroud and the offense have not been good enough in recent years. I know Buffalo will struggle against this defensive scheme, especially in a week one game, but I won’t back CJ Stroud here. Take the Bills to win.