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Texans vs Colts Prediction 1/4/26 NFL Picks Today

David Racey

Indianapolis Colts (8-8) vs. Houston Texans (11-5)
January 4, 2026 1:00 pm EDT
The Line: Houston Texans -10; Over/Under: 38.5
(Get latest betting odds)

In this article we will formulate a Texans vs Colts prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, January 4th at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 18 matchup.

Houston Texans Betting Preview

The Houston Texans are 11-5 this season after they defeated the Chargers by a score of 20-16 in their last game. Houston led 14-0 in the first quarter and 14-3 at halftime, but only managed six points in the second half in the narrow win. The Texans out gained LA by a total of 362-275, went 3-11 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 2-1 in the game. CJ Stroud went 16-28 for 244 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Woody Marks rushed 19 times for 71 yards. Jayden Higgins led the receivers with two catches for 88 yards and one touchdown in the win.

Prior to that game, Houston defeated the Raiders by a score of 23-21 and the Cardinals by a score of 40-20. The Texans have won eight games in a row and they are currently second in the AFC South standings. Houston has scored 22.9 points per game with 218.9 passing yards and 107.4 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 16.6 points against per game this season. CJ Stroud has thrown for 2,872 yards, 18 touchdowns, and eight interceptions, while Woody Marks has rushed for 655 yards and two scores on 186 carries this season. Nico Collins has led the receivers with 71 receptions for 1,117 yards and six touchdowns.

Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview

The Indianapolis Colts are 8-8 this year after they lost to Jacksonville by a score of 23-17 in their last game. Indianapolis led 10-0 in the second quarter and 10-7 at halftime, but they allowed 16 points in the second half for the loss. The Colts were out gained by a total of 370-204, went 4-11 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at two in the game. Philip Rivers went 17-30 for 147 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while Jonathan Taylor rushed 21 times for 70 yards and one score. Tyler Warren led the receivers with five catches for 43 yards in the loss.

Prior to that game, Indianapolis lost to the 49ers by a score of 48-27 and the Seahawks by a score of 18-16. The Colts have lost six games in a row and they are currently third in the AFC South standings. Indianapolis has scored 27.3 points per game with 224.7 passing yards and 120.7 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 23.4 points against per game this season. Riley Leonard will get the start at quarterback in this game, while Jonathan Taylor has rushed for 1,559 yards and 18 scores on 309 carries this year.

Why the Houston Texans will win

The Texans have won each of their last eight games.
The Colts have lost each of their last eight games against opponents on a winning streak.
The Colts have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games in January.
The Texans have covered the spread in five of their last six games without Davis Mills.
The Texans have won the first half in each of their last six games.
The Texans have scored the first touchdown in eight of their last nine games as favorites following a win.
The Texans have won the first quarter in each of their last five games.

Total Points Facts

Eight of the Texans’ last nine home games against the Colts have gone UNDER the total points line.
Each of the Colts’ last four games as road underdogs following a home loss have gone OVER the total points line.
Four of the last five games between AFC South teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Houston Texans Player Prop Facts

C.J. Stroud has recorded 20+ completions in each of his nine previous appearances with the Texans as favorites against AFC South opponents.
Woody Marks has recorded 64+ rushing yards in each of his last four appearances against AFC opponents.
C.J. Stroud has recorded 213+ passing yards in each of his nine previous appearances with the Texans as favorites against AFC South opponents.
Joe Mixon has scored a touchdown in each of his last five appearances against the Colts.
Joe Mixon has recorded 32+ receiving yards in each of his three previous home appearances against the Colts.
Joe Mixon has recorded 109+ rushing and receiving yards in five of his six previous appearances against the Colts.
Heading into Week 18, Calen Bullock has recorded the equal-most interceptions in a single game this season (2 vs Bills, Week 12).

Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Facts

Jonathan Taylor has scored at least one touchdown in nine of his last 10 appearances against AFC South opponents.
Alec Pierce has recorded 57+ receiving yards in five of the Colts’ last six games against AFC South opponents.
Jonathan Taylor has recorded 91+ rushing yards in each of his four previous road appearances against the Texans.
Jonathan Taylor has recorded 117+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his four previous road appearances against the Texans.
Heading into Week 18, Jonathan Taylor ranks 1st in the NFL in touchdowns (20) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

Heading into Week 18, the Texans rank 1st in the NFL in points allowed per game (16.6) this season.
Heading into Week 18, the Texans rank 1st in the NFL in yards allowed per game (272.4) this season.
Heading into Week 18, the Colts have played in the equal-highest number of games that went to overtime this season (2).
Heading into Week 18, the Colts have recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 20+ points this season (3).