Titans vs Texans Prediction 9/28/25 NFL Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Titans vs Texans Prediction for this NFL Week 4 game on Sunday, September 28^th at the NRG Stadium. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

Houston Texans Preview

The Houston Texans have a 0-3 record this season and are sitting in 3rd place of the AFC South. They are 0-3 ATS, 0-3 in Over/Under and have a 0-1 home record and 0-2 away record. The Texans are coming off a 10-17 road loss to Jacksonville Jaguars and are playing Baltimore Ravens and Seattle Seahawks next.

Offensively, the Texans average 12.7 points per game, which ranks 32nd in the NFL. Defensively, they allow 17.0 points per game, which is 5th. Houston averages 267.3 total yards per game, with 95.0 rushing yards and 172.3 passing yards per game. They allow 315.7 total yards per game, with 95.0 rushing and 172.3 passing yards per game.

C.J. Stroud leads the Texans with 599 passing yards and 64.0% completed passes. Nick Chubb leads the team in rushing yards, with 141, while Nico Collins has a team-high 14 caught passes for 181 receiving yards, and has two touchdowns. Defensively, Azeez Al-Shaair has a team-high 25 total tackles, 15 of them solo. Will Anderson leads the Texans in sacks, with three, while Jalen Pitre has one interception.

Tennessee Titans Preview

The Tennessee Titans have a 0-3 record this season and are sitting on the 3rd place of the AFC South. They are 1-2 ATS, 2-1 in Over/Under and have a 0-2 home record and 0-1 away record. The Titans are coming off a 20-41 home loss to the Indianapolis Colts and are playing the Arizona Cardinals and Las Vegas Raiders next.

Offensively, the Titans average 17.0 points per game, which ranks 28th in the NFL. Defensively, they allow 31.3 points per game, which is 30th. Tennessee averages 204.3 total yards per game, with 57.3 rushing yards and 147.0 passing yards per game. They allow 373.7 total yards per game, with 145.7 rushing and 228.0 passing yards per game.

Cam Ward leads the Titans with 506 passing yards and 54.5% completed passes. Tony Pollard leads the team in rushing yards, with 197, while Elic Ayomanor has a team-high 8 caught passes for 111 receiving yards, and has two touchdowns. Defensively, Cody Barton has a team-high 20 total tackles, 12 of them solo. Dre’Mont Jones leads the Titans in sacks, with one, while Xavier Woods has one interception.

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans Betting Trends: Week 4

Why the Houston Texans will win

• The Titans have lost each of their last nine games.
• The Texans have won each of their last nine games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
• The Titans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven Sunday games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Texans have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against the Titans following a loss.
• The Titans have lost the first quarter in four of their last five games.
• The Texans have won the first half in each of their last 12 games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
• The Texans have scored the first touchdown in seven of their last eight games as favorites.

Why the Tennessee Titans will win

• The underdogs have won each of the Titans’ last seven Week 4 games.
• The Texans have lost each of their last four games.
• The Texans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 11 games as favorites following a road loss.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Titans’ last seven Week 4 games.
• The Texans have lost the first quarter in seven of their last eight games as favorites following a road loss.
• The Titans have won the first half in each of their last five Week 4 games.
• The Titans have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five Week 4 games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Texans’ last six games in September have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seven of the Titans’ last eight games as road underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the last four games between teams from the same division have gone UNDER the total points line.

Houston Texans Player Prop Facts

• C.J. Stroud has recorded 234+ passing yards in each of the Texans’ last six games as favorites against AFC South opponents.
• Nick Chubb has recorded 56+ rushing yards in each of his last 19 Sunday appearances with his team as a home favorite.
• C.J. Stroud has recorded 23+ completions in each of the Texans’ last four home games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
• Joe Mixon has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last five appearances with his team as a favorite following a loss.
• Christian Kirk has recorded 39+ receiving yards in 10 of his last 11 home appearances against division opponents.
• Nick Chubb has recorded 60+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 25 appearances with his team as a home favorite.
• Heading into Week 4, Danielle Hunter ranks T2nd in the league for fumbles recovered (1) this season.

Tennessee Titans Player Prop Facts

• Calvin Ridley has scored at least one touchdown in nine of his last 11 appearances in road day games against teams with a losing record.
• Tony Pollard has recorded 70+ rushing yards in six of his last seven September road appearances.
• Tyler Lockett has recorded 30+ receiving yards in each of his 10 previous appearances against AFC South opponents.
• Calvin Ridley has recorded 63+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last seven road appearances against division opponents.
• Heading into Week 4, Chimere Dike ranks 1st in the NFL in kick return yards (389) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 4, the Texans rank 32nd in the NFL in points per game (12.7) this season.
• Heading into Week 4, the Texans rank 32nd in the NFL in 3rd down percentage (24.2%) this season.
• Heading into Week 4, the Titans rank 32nd in the NFL in passing yards per game (133.7) this season.
• Heading into Week 4, the Titans have recorded more total yards than their opponent in zero game this season – equal-fewest in the league.

Titans vs Texans Prediction

Both teams were tied 1-1 wins last season, with each one winning on the road. Texans won in Tennessee by 23-14 and the Titans in Houston by 32-27. The Texans are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings against the Titans, and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings. The Titans are 4-1 in their last 5 visits in Houston.

In this Titans vs Texans Prediction, the Texans are coming as -7-point home favorites, with the total set at 38.5 points. Both offenses have been terrible this season, as both teams score 29.7 points per game, with the Texans having the worst offense in the NFL. Houston also boasts the 5^th-best defense, allowing just 17 points per game, so I expect a low-scoring grind between two struggling teams looking for their first win of the season. Take the under 38.5 points in this one.