Week 1 odds are out, and while they will look very different by game day, we have you early value-hunting bettors covered. Let’s take a look at the Top 5 Picks for NFL Week 1.

Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs

The reigning Super Bowl champions, Kansas City Chiefs, will begin the new NFL season with this inter-conference game against the Detroit Lions on Thursday, September 7.

Lions Team News and Stats

The Lions finished the last season with a 9-8 record – the first time they had over .500 in five years. Still, that wasn’t enough to make the playoffs, but this time out, the Lions are hoping for 10+ wins and a top spot in the NFC North. In fact, Detroit is currently the biggest favorite to win its division at +130. After adding two first-round picks (RB Jahmyr Gibbs and LB Jack Campbell) to the already talented roster – the Lions look promising. However, they’ll visit the defending champs at Arrowhead Stadium, which is a tough matchup for the young Lions.

Jared Goff cannot count on suspended wideout Jameson Williams, who will be sidelined for the first six weeks. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Marvin Jones Jr. will serve as Goff’s main targets in the air. St. Brown had a fantastic 2022 and led the team in receiving yards (1,161), receptions (106), and touchdowns (6). Marvin Jones Jr. returned to Detroit after two years in Jacksonville. He played his best football while with the Lions, and his only 1,000-yard season came in 2017 with Detroit. Jones arrived as a replacement for DJ Chark, who went to Carolina.

The team added two running backs to replace Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift. Two of them combined for 1,600+ rushing yards last year. It will be hard to replicate that number, but Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery surely have the quality to combine for 1,500 yards. The matchup against a top-10 Kansas City’s run defense is not favorable, so I believe the Lions will try to hurt the Chiefs through the air. The hosts have an average pass defense that allowed 220.9 yards per game in 2022. That said, I am backing Goff to have a 250-yard display here, something he managed to do in 10 of 17 games last season.

Chiefs Team News and Stats

The Chiefs are the main favorites to win another Super Bowl at +650. They parted ways with WR JuJu Smith Schuster, who joined the Patriots. Marquez Valdes-Scantling will be WR1 this year, but Patrick Mahomes’ favorite target is Travis Kelce. The tight end had a 1,000-yard season for the seventh consecutive year and recorded 12 touchdowns – the third time in his career he had 10+ TD receptions. The Lions’ secondary is weak; it allowed 245.8 ypg, the third-worst pass defense in the NFL. I already feel sorry for the Lions’ D against Mahomes and Kelce.

Detroit’s run defense was also in the bottom 5 (146.5 ypg allowed), so the Chiefs will move the chains easily. Isiah Pacheco has a good matchup, but I’m not sure the Chiefs will use their run offense a lot. Maybe if the offensive line fails to control one of the best pass rushers in the NFL – DE Aidan Hutchinson. On the other hand, that O-Line is perhaps the best in the league. Kansas City’s secondary could give a headache to Andy Reid, but the offense always makes up on the other end.

Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs H2H Record

These inter-conference rivals have met just five times in this century. The most recent H2H duel came in September 2019, when the Chiefs scored a late touchdown to celebrate a 34-30 victory in Detroit. Kansas City won five of the last seven encounters.

Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs Pick

The most potent offense meets the weakest defense. The Chiefs averaged the league-best 413.6 yards per game, while the Lions allowed the league-worst 392.4 ypg. KC scored 29.2 ppg (1st), and even though the Lions were excellent offensively, scoring 26.6 ppg (5th), their defense is catastrophic. Detroit surrendered 25.1 ppg opposite Kansas City’s 21.7 ppg, so I believe the Lions’ D will play a big role in their defeat at Arrowhead. I’d be surprised if the hosts don’t score 30+ points here and cruise to the victory. The home team’s offense gives me the liberty to alter the spread.

My Lions vs Chiefs Pick – Kansas City -9.5 (+120)

Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens

The young Texans will meet the AFC rivals Ravens in Baltimore on Sunday, September 10.

Texans News and Stats

The Texans experienced their second-worst season in the franchise’s history as they ended the last year with a 3-13-1 record. They did get two out of the top 3 picks in the 2023 NFL Draft and selected QB C.J. Stroud and LB Will Anderson Jr. The rebuilding Texans hired former star linebacker DeMeco Ryans as a new head coach after his successful stint as a defensive coordinator with the San Francisco 49ers.

TE Dalton Schultz, RB Devin Singletary, and WR Robert Woods are among the players who came to Houston in the offseason. WR Brandin Cooks, WR Chris Moore, TE Jordan Akins, and S Jonathan Owens left the team, but it seems that the Texans are a bit stronger now, with a new HC, a highly-talented QB, and a strong pair of running backs. Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary should improve the second-worst run offense that averaged only 86.8 ypg in 2022. It’s not going to be easy in Week 1 against Baltimore, though. The Ravens’ run defense has been the third-best in the NFL, with 92.1 ypg allowed.

Stroud will need time to adapt to the NFL, and although I expect the Texans to have a better record this year, I expect them to lose heavily in Baltimore.

Ravens Team News and Stats

Last year, the Ravens were stopped in the Wild Card by the divisional foes Cincinnati Bengals. Baltimore hopes to improve on its 10-7 record, which will be tricky given the competition in the AFC North. Lamar Jackson aims to become a better passer, and the arrival of wideouts such as Odell Beckham Jr, rookie Zay Flowers, and Nelson Agholor will help him in that intent. Tight ends Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely make one of the best TE pairs in the league; they combined for 1,200+ yards last season.

Baltimore averaged just 178.8 passing yards per contest, and that must improve if they want to be in Super Bowl again. Houston’s pass defense is actually not bad, so I suppose the Ravens will try to do the damage on the ground. The Ravens had the second-best run offense that averaged 160.0 ypg and will face the worst run defense in the NFL that allowed 170.2 ypg.

Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens H2H Record

These conference rivals have faced 12 times so far. Baltimore won ten of those encounters, including the latest one, in September 2020. The Ravens won all six H2Hs played in Baltimore.

Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens Pick

The Ravens’ defense went through some changes, but I wouldn’t be worried about its performance against Houston’s impotent offense. The Texans averaged 17.0 ppg (30th) in 2022, while Baltimore allowed 18.5 ppg (3rd). Anything more than 14 points from the visitors would be surprising here. In six H2Hs in Baltimore, the Texans scored 15+ only two times. Baltimore’s offense wasn’t impressive last year as it scored 20.6 ppg (19th), but scoring shouldn’t be a problem in this one. Houston’s D was among the weakest in the NFL; it allowed 24.7 ppg (27th). I am going with an easy W for the hosts.

My Texans vs Ravens Pick – Baltimore -9.5 (-110)

Tennessee Titans vs New Orleans Saints

Another inter-conference battle on this list will take place on Sunday, September 10, in New Orleans, when the Titans visit the Saints. It’s a duel between two teams that finished the 2022 campaign with identical 7-10 record.

Titans Team News and Stats

Only a year after winning the AFC No. 1 seed with the best record (12-5) since 2008, the Titans dropped to a 7-10 record and missed the playoffs. The AFC South is probably the weakest division in pro football at the moment, but the roses are not red for Tennessee in 2023. It seems their already limited offense is weaker after Robert Woods’ departure. The Titans had the third-worst pass offense that averaged 171.4 ypg. Undoubtedly, they will rely on Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry unless Henry lands elsewhere in a trade.

It’s not that the Titans have a chance in the air against the second-best pass defense that limited the opponents to 184.4 ypg. Henry, on the other hand, recorded 1,538 rushing yards in 2022 – only Josh Jacobs accumulated more. That said, the Titans will likely try to move the chains and score on the ground, which is realistic to expect, considering New Orleans’ run defense allowed 130.5 ypg. The visitors will hope for their D to make crucial stops and keep them in the game, but that will be hard against an improved New Orleans’ offense.

Saints Team News and Stats

Dennis Allen’s first year as the Saints’ head coach resulted in the worst record in six years. Still, he gets another chance to lead New Orleans, who improved in the offseason. The addition of QB Derek Carr, who left the Raiders after nine years, and RB Jamaal Williams, will make the Saints’ offense better. WR Michael Thomas should be healthy, and with such offensive weapons as Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Tre’Quan Smith, Juwan Johnson, and Taysom Hill, the Saints fans have the right to be excited.

An improved pass offense has the ability to hurt the Titans’ worst pass D that allowed 274.8 ypg. Carr can slice that secondary open, and I am sure he’ll do it because the Saints could abandon running early on. Tennessee is might weak in the air, but its run defense was the best in the NFL as it allowed only 76.9 ypg. Kamara should get more receptions than usual. Hill and some trick plays can also do damage.

Tennessee Titans vs New Orleans Saints H2H Record

The inter-conference rivals have met on six occasions in competitive duels in this century. The Titans won four, including the latest one in November 2021 in Tennessee.

Tennessee Titans vs New Orleans Saints Pick

The Titans did have some success in H2H games in recent history, but I am positive the Saints will kick off a new campaign with a home victory. While their defense remains in the top 10 (20.3 ppg allowed in 2022), I am sure the offense (19.4 ppg) will fare much better in 2023, starting with this game. Tennessee has a solid D, but that’s not the case when it comes to pass defense, and New Orleans’ pass offense has some lethal weapons, so I expect the home side to win this game through the air.

My Titans vs Saints Pick – New Orleans -5.5 (+115)

Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks

We have a divisional rivalry game as the Rams travel north to take on the Seahawks at Lumen Field on Sunday, September 10.

Rams Team News and Stats

Only a year after their Super Bowl win, the Rams fell to a 5-12 record, their worst in six seasons. The room for improvement is not big, given they did little in the offseason to strengthen the squad. WR Demarcus Robinson is the lone addition worth mentioning, and he is not even a top 3 WR option on the roster. Los Angeles will be hoping for a bounce-back season of Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, who disappointed in 2022 and posted the weakest numbers of their respective careers. The fact the Rams averaged 182.8 passing yards per game (27th) speaks for itself.

Not only they didn’t reinforce the offense, but their defense is now way weaker. The Rams lost LB Bobby Wagner, S Taylor Rapp, CB Jalen Ramsey, S Nick Scott, CB, Troy Hill, and LB Leonard Floyd, among others. All this suggests the Rams will be fighting with the Arizona Cardinals for the last place in the NFC North. The Rams could do something on the ground against Seattle, who allowed 150.2 ypg (30th) to the opposing runners, but Los Angeles’ run offense even failed to average 100.0 ypg (97.7).

Seahawks Team News and Stats

The Seahawks were one of the most pleasant surprises in 2022. Not many people gave them a chance for a winning season, let alone reaching the playoffs following Russell Wilson’s departure, but Geno Smith and co. did it. Smith had the best season of his career, and his connection with wideouts DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett was outstanding. Seattle finished just outside the top 10 in pass offense with 231.4 ypg. The core of that offense is the same, with the addition of rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, so the new-looking Rams’ secondary should be scared. Los Angeles allowed 226.0 ypg last season, and I think it will be more lenient in 2023, including this particular game.

In case the pass offense doesn’t work, the Seahawks can always turn to its solid run offense (120.1 ypg) and young Kenneth Walker III, who impressed in his rookie season with 1,050 yards and nine touchdowns. Seattle’s defense (23.6 ppg allowed) was the weaker part of the team, but the team worked well in the offseason to strengthen that part. LB Bobby Wagner returned from the Rams, and DE Dre’Mont Jones came from Denver, so the third-worst run defense should do better in 2023.

Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks H2H Record

The Rams won six of the last ten H2Hs, but the Seahawks won both duels in 2022. The most recent meeting ended after overtime as Seattle won 19-16 at home.

Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks Pick

The Rams are not looking better in 2023, while the Seahawks improved. While I am not impressed with their respective defenses, Seattle’s offense is much better. I am backing the poker of offensive players (Smith, Walker III, Lockett, and Metcalf) to dominate this game and give the hosts a victory. Seattle had a top-10 offense that averaged 23.9 ppg, and I believe the Seahawks can score 27+ without trouble here.

My Rams vs Seahawks Pick – Seattle -5.5 (-110)

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos

I’ll conclude this list with another divisional derby. This time, it’s the AFC West tilt in which the Raiders visit the Broncos on Sunday, September 10.

Raiders Team News and Stats

It’s never easy when a team moves on from its longtime quarterback. The Raiders did that this offseason as they parted ways with Derek Carr and brought in Jimmy Garoppolo instead. Carr is a better passer than Jimmy G, so I expect the pass numbers to drop (231.4 ypg in 2022) this year, despite the fact that Jimmy Garoppolo Q will have one of the best receivers in the game – Davante Adams. Adams was the third in the NFL in receiving yards with 1,516. The offense has a new look; WR Mack Hollins, TE Foster Moreau, and TE Darren Waller left, while WR Jakobi Meyers, TE Austin Hooper, and TE O.J. Howard arrived.

Josh Jacobs was the best running back in the NFL, with 1,653 yards and 12 touchdowns. He owned the Broncos in two H2Hs, registering 253 rushing yards with two TDs. Jacobs could be a go-to guy for the Raiders if Garoppolo struggles in his first start in a new uniform. Denver’s run defense was solid (109.8 ypg), but Jacobs should be good for a 100-yard display.

On defense, Las Vegas kept DE Maxx Crosby, DE Chandler Jones, and LB Divine Deablo, but lost S Duron Harmon, LB Denzel Perryman, and CB Rock Ya-Sin. The Raiders selected DE Tyree Wilson with the 7th pick overall from Texas Tech so that defensive line will be just fine. However, the Raiders’ secondary is woeful and will cost them against Denver.

Broncos Team News and Stats

Despite bringing a future Hall of Famer quarterback Russell Wilson, the Broncos finished the last season with a 5-12 record, their worst since 2010. Denver hired Sean Payton as a new head coach, and he will make an impact and improve that poor record. Payton can revive Wilson’s career, and I am sure two of them will get the Broncos to a winning season.

Well, it can’t get worse from the weakest offense in the NFL that averaged 16.9 ppg. Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and Greg Dulcich are solid receivers, and I am backing them to have a way better connection with Wilson in his second season at Mile High. The Raiders’ pass defense should feel that on its skin; it allowed 242.9 ypg last year (29th). Expect a big game from Russ. Denver will be stronger for RB Javonte Williams, who missed the majority of last season with a knee injury.

With an improved offensive line (Ben Powers and Mike McGlinchey) and defense (Frank Clark and Zach Allen), this team can aim for the playoffs for the first time in eight years.

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos H2H Record

The Raiders won eight of the previous ten H2H duels, including each of the last six. Las Vegas also won the past three encounters in Denver – the latest one in overtime.

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos Pick

The Broncos struggled offensively in 2022, but that will change with a new system and Payton-Wilson collaboration. The Raiders allowed 24.6 ppg (26th), and I don’t think their current defense can hold the hosts, especially the poor secondary. Wilson will show an entirely new self to the Broncos Country, and this time around, there will be no excuses. Las Vegas could struggle on offense given it will be Garoppolo’s first start for the Raiders. Denver’s home defense is always rock-solid, so I am going with the hosts to get a W.

My Raiders vs Broncos Pick – Denver -5.5 (+115)