Commanders vs Raiders Prediction 9/21/25 NFL Picks Today

The Las Vegas Raiders and the Washington Commanders meet Sunday in NFL action from Northwest Stadium. Here’s a Commanders vs Raiders prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Commanders vs Raiders pick.

Las Vegas Raiders Betting Preview

The Raiders got off to a good start this year with a matchup against the New England Patriots. Las Vegas was down by a field goal at the break but surged in the second half on a 13-3 run for a 20-13 win. Geno Smith posted a 24-of-34 line for 362 yards, one TD and one interception, and leading the rush was Ashton Jeanty with 19 totes for 38 yards and a score. Brock Bowers topped the receivers with his 103 yards off five catches, while Jakobi Meyers had eight grabs for 97 yards.

In Monday night’s game versus the Los Angeles Chargers, the Raiders faced a 17-6 deficit after the first half, mustering only a pair of field goals along the way. Las Vegas added another field goal in the second half, limping to a 20-9 loss in the end. Smith had a rough evening, logging a 24-of-43 line for 180 yards and three interceptions. Jeanty was the top rusher once again on 11 carries for 43 yards. Meyers topped the receivers with six grabs for 68 yards, and Brock Bowers added five catches for 38 yards total during the defeat.

Washington Commanders Betting Preview

Over on the Commanders’ side, they opened up the season versus the struggling New York Giants. Washington held a 14-3 lead by the third quarter and ended up winning 21-6 in the end. Jayden Daniels had 233 yards and a score on 19-of-30 passing, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt rushed 10 times for 82 yards and a touchdown. Deebo Samuel caught seven balls for 77 yards to top the receivers in the rivalry win.

Washington played last Thursday, taking on the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. The Commanders were down 17-3 by the fourth and couldn’t make the comeback in a 27-18 loss. Daniels was 24-of-42 for 200 yards and a pair of touchdowns this time, and also rushed for 17 yards. That would tie Daniels for the team-high; both Austin Ekeler and Croskey-Merritt had 17 yards each as well. Zach Ertz was the top receiver with six catches for 64 yards and a TD.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Washington Commanders Betting Trends: Week 3

Why the Washington Commanders will win

• The Raiders have lost each of their last 11 games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).
• The Commanders have won seven of their last eight Sunday games.
• The Raiders have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight Week 3 games.
• The Commanders have covered the spread in each of their last five games played on the East Coast.
• The home team has won the first quarter in each of the Commanders’ last six games.
• The Commanders have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six games as favorites.
• The Raiders have lost the first half in each of their last 13 games as road underdogs following a loss.

Why the Las Vegas Raiders will win

• The Commanders have lost each of their last four games as home favorites when playing with a rest advantage.
• The underdogs have won each of the Raiders’ last three Week 3 games.
• The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games when playing with a rest advantage.
• The Raiders have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as road underdogs when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The Commanders have lost the first half in eight of their last nine September games against AFC West opponents.
• The Raiders have won the first quarter in four of their last five Week 3 games as underdogs.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Commanders’ last seven games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Nine of the Raiders’ last 10 games as underdogs following a home loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Five of the last six Sunday games at Northwest Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

Washington Commanders Player Prop Facts

• Zach Ertz has scored a touchdown in each of the Commanders’ last five games following a loss.
• Jayden Daniels has recorded 233+ passing yards in four of the Commanders’ last five games.
• Deebo Samuel has recorded 11+ rushing yards in each of his eight previous appearances with his team as a favorite on the East Coast.
• Austin Ekeler has recorded 49+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 17 appearances with his team as a home favorite against AFC opponents.
• Austin Ekeler has recorded 31+ receiving yards in each of his last 12 September home appearances.
• Jayden Daniels has recorded 22+ completions in 10 of the Commanders’ last 12 games.
• Heading into Week 3, Will Harris ranks T2nd in the league for forced fumbles (1) this season.

Las Vegas Raiders Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 3, Geno Smith has thrown the equal-most interceptions in a single game this season (3 vs Chargers, Week 2).

Matchup/League Facts

• Commanders – two different players have recorded 50+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
• Commanders – two different players have recorded 60+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
• Raiders – two different players have recorded 80+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
• Raiders – two different players have recorded 90+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.

Commanders vs Raiders Prediction

I’ll probably stick with the Commanders here, but I’m a lot less high on them than I was after their Week 1 win. In the loss to Green Bay, Washington mustered just 230 yards (51 rushing), 3.5 yards per play, 15 first downs and a 5-of-16 success rate on third-down conversions. The Commanders’ defense held the Packers to a decent 5-of-12 on third downs themselves, but also surrendered 404 yards (269 passing), 6.4 yards per play and 22 first downs. In short, it wasn’t a great effort in a tricky road matchup. Hopefully, coming back home will give Washington a shot in the arm. If it doesn’t, the team could be in for a long season—which would be disappointing after the charmed run in 2024 brought a little hope to the city.

As for Las Vegas, they didn’t play too badly on defense overall versus the Chargers on Monday—the offense just couldn’t provide much help. The Raiders held LA to 317 yards (236 passing), 15 first downs and a 4-of-11 success rate on third downs. On the other side, Las Vegas was able to post only 218 total yards (150 passing), 3.4 yards per play, 15 first downs and the three interceptions. Needless to say, there’s plenty to work on ahead of this road trip. Provided the Raiders can get the offense moving again, they may be able to make things interesting, but I don’t think they’ll cover.