Week 1: Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots 9/11/22 NFL Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots square off Sunday in a week 1 AFC East division matchup in NFL action from Hard Rock Stadium.

The New England Patriots will be looking to build on a decent 10-7 mark in 2021 that saw the Patriots get back to the playoffs for the first time in the post-Tom Brady era with the Patriots’ first wild card berth under Bill Belichick. The stay was short-lived though, as the Pats were bounced by Buffalo 47-17 in the wild card game. Mac Jones is back at starting QB for New England after throwing for 3,801 yards, 22 touchdowns and 13 picks last season while Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson make up a solid 1-2 punch for New England’s backfield after combining for over 1,500 rushing yards last year. DeVante Parker’s the new WR1 in Foxborough after being brought over from Miami in the offseason while Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne figure to fit in the mix as well as rookie Tyquan Thornton at some point this season. On defense, it’s the usual suspects for New England, led by Matthew Judon, Ja’Whaun Bentley and Mack Wilson while Devin McCourty, Adrian Phillips, Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers headline the Patriots’ secondary.

The Miami Dolphins will look to make some moves in 2022 after a 9-8 mark in 2021, forcing the Dolphins to miss out on the postseason for the fifth year in a row. Tua Tagovailoa will try to build on a decent 2021 season after throwing for 2,653 yards, 16 touchdowns and 10 picks, but he’s have plenty of weapons at his disposal, with Chase Edmonds coming over from Arizona to battle alongside the recently returning from injury Raheem Mostert and a familiar face in Myles Gaskin. That being said, the big get for Miami was the acquisition of Tyreek Hill from the Chiefs to fit alongside Jaylen Waddle and Cedrick Wilson as one of the best top-lines of receivers in the NFL. On defense, Raekwon Davis leads Miami’s pass rush while Melvin Ingram III and Jerome Baker headlines the linebacking group. Xavien Howard is also back in Miami’s secondary as well this season.

New England is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the AFC while the over is 4-0 in their last 4 games overall. Miami is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 division games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games while the under is 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite.

I get the case to be made for New England here and take it from a Patriots fan, I’m high on Mac Jones running this team now that he has a full season under his belt. However, the Patriots have a history of struggling in Miami and the Dolphins did a lot more to improve their roster in the offseason while I’m still led to believe that New England’s going to rely on their defense to win a lot of battles this season. I’m a bit shocked that this line is as low as it is if I’m being honest, so give me the Dolphins.