Week 4: Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots 10/2/22 NFL Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots square off Sunday in a week 4 NFL showdown from Lambeau Field.

The New England Patriots will be looking to rebound from a 37-26 loss to Baltimore in their last game to fall to 1-2 on the year. Mac Jones has thrown for 786 yards, 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 66% passing, but will miss significant time with an ankle injury. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson have combined for 305 rushing yards and 3 TDs while Nelson Agholor has a team-high 179 receiving yards and three other Patriot receivers have three more 100-yard receivers this season. On defense, Devin McCourty has a team-high 17 total tackles including 14 solo tackles while Deatrich Wise Jr. has a team-high 4 sacks and Matthew Judon has 3 sacks as well this season.

The Green Bay Packers will try to build on their 14-12 win over Tampa Bay to improve to 2-1 on the year last time out. Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 684 yards, 4 touchdowns and a pair of interceptions on 72.3% passing while Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have combined for 355 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns. Romeo Doubs has a team-high 137 receiving yards and 14 receptions while two other Packers have 100+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, De’Vondre Campbell has a team-high 29 total tackles including 15 solo tackles while Rashan Gary has a team-high 3 sacks. Preston Smith and Kenny Clark each have a pair of sacks as well this season.

New England is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home while the over is 4-0 in their last 4 October games. Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 week 4 matchups and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring 15 points or less in their previous game while the under is 4-0 in their last 4 games overall.

I get the case to be made for the Packers here as I don’t expect much from New England unless they choose to start Bailey Zappe which I’m hoping for, but they likely won’t. That being said, the Packers’ offense didn’t look great against Tampa Bay, and I’m thinking we could see more of the same against a decent Patriots’ defense, but not only that, with Mac Jones out, I’m expecting a run-heavy approach from New England as to not give Aaron Rodgers many opportunities to burn them. I think this one’s going to be an uglt slopfest that’s played between the 20s mostly, so give me the under here.