Boston Bruins vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction 5-4-24 Picks

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins meet Saturday in Game 7 East First Round NHL Playoffs action at the TD Garden. Here’s a Boston Bruins vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction.

Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs will reach the second round of the playoffs for the second time since the 2013-14 season with a win here. The Toronto Maple Leafs are averaging 1.83 goals per game and are scoring on 5 percent of their power play opportunities. Matthew Knies leads Toronto with 2 goals, Max Domi has 3 assists and John Tavares has 19 shots on goal. Defensively, the Toronto Maple Leafs are allowing 2.67 goals per game and are killing 60 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Ilya Samsonov has allowed 12 goals on 103 shots faced, while Joesph Woll has given up 2 goals on 56 shots.

Boston Bruins Betting Preview

The Boston Bruins will advance to the second round of the playoffs for the fifth time in the last 7 years with a victory here. The Boston Bruins are averaging 2.67 goals per game and are scoring on 40 percent of their power play opportunities. Jake DeBrusk leads Boston with 3 goals, Brad Marchand has 5 assists and David Pastrnak has 19 shots on goal. Defensively, the Boston Bruins are allowing 1.83 goals per game and are killing 95 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Jeremy Swayman has allowed 8 goals on 150 shots faced, while Linus Ullmark has give up 3 goals on 34 shots.

Boston Bruins vs Toronto Maple Leafs Injury Report

Andrew Peeke remains out for Boston with a finger injury. Bobby McMann continues to miss time for Toronto with a lower body injury. The main injury to watch is Auston Matthews, as he missed game 5 and 6 with an illness. Sheldon Keefe has said team doctors will make the decision on whether Matthews plays or not. You should check the injury report before placing a bet, given how key Matthews is to the Maple Leafs success.

Why the Boston Bruins will win

• The Bruins have won each of their last seven night games against the Maple Leafs following a road loss.
• The Maple Leafs have lost seven of their last eight games at TD Garden following a win.
• The Bruins have covered the puck line in each of their last seven games against the Maple Leafs following a road loss.
• The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last five games against opponents on a losing streak.
• The Bruins have won the first period in five of their last six games against the Maple Leafs following a road loss.

Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will win

• The underdogs have won seven of the Bruins’ last eight games.
• The Bruins have lost each of their last six playoff series closeout games.
• The Bruins have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last seven games as favorites following a road loss.
• The underdogs have covered the puck line in seven of the Bruins’ last eight games.
• The Maple Leafs have won the second period in four of their last five games following a win.

Total Goals Facts

• Seven of the Maple Leafs’ last eight games against opponents on a losing streak have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Each of the Bruins’ last four games against opponents on a winning streak have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Three of the last four games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last nine games against opponents on a losing streak.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Bruins’ last 11 Saturday night games.

Boston Bruins vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction

The Boston Bruins should be favored because they’re at home, where they’re 25-12-7 on the season. The Bruins have also won 9 of the last 12 games against the Maple Leafs. Home teams in the NL win 58 percent of game 7s. Also, the status of Auston Matthews remains a major question mark, which doesn’t benefit the Maple Leafs, even if Toronto has managed to win the last 2 games without him. There’s a lot leaning in the direction of the Bruins.

With all that said, the Maple Leafs have managed to scratch out back to back low scoring games, which should do wonders for their confidence. The Maple Leafs also haven’t had that game where the offense explodes and with or without Matthews, Toronto was second in goals per game and top-10 in other major offensive stats. At some point, the Maple Leafs are due for an offensive breakthrough? I’ll take a shot with the plus money. The Maple Leafs win their first game 7 since beating the Senators in 2004.