Canadiens vs Lightning Prediction 4/26/26 NHL Picks Today

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens meet Sunday in NHL Game 4 at the Bell Centre. Here’s a Canadiens vs. Lightning Prediction. This article will include a Canadiens vs. Lightning Pick.

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning need a win to even up the series at 2-2. The Lightning have lost 6 of their last 9 games.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are averaging 2.67 goals per game and are scoring on 3.1 percent of their power-play opportunities. Brandon Hagel leads Tampa Bay with 4 goals, Jake Guentzel has 5 assists, and Nikita Kucherov has 11 shots on goal. Defensively, the Tampa Bay Lightning are allowing 3 goals per game and are killing 69.2 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Andrei Vasilevskiy has allowed 9 goals on 75 shots faced.

Montreal Canadiens Betting Preview

The Montreal Canadiens have a chance to take control of the series with a 3-1 lead. The Canadiens have won 13 of their last 17 games.

The Montreal Canadiens are averaging 3 goals per game and are scoring on 30.8 percent of their power play opportunities. Juraj Slafkovsky leads Montreal with 3 goals, Nick Suzuki has 3 assists and Lane Hutson has 10 shots on goal. Defensively, the Montreal Canadiens are allowing 2.67 goals per game and are killing 76.9 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Jakub Dobes has given up 8 goals on 74 shots faced.

Why the Montreal Canadiens will win

• The Canadiens have won each of their last seven games as home underdogs.
• The Lightning have lost four of their last five games as road favorites.
• The Canadiens have covered the puck line in each of their last 28 games as underdogs.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last nine games.
• The Canadiens have won the second period in each of their last eight games as underdogs when trailing after the first period.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Lightning have won eight of their last nine games against the Canadiens after coming off overtime.
• The Canadiens have lost each of their last four Game 4s of an Eastern Conference First Round series.
• The road team has covered the puck line in four of the Lightning’s last five games.
• The Canadiens have failed to cover the puck line in three of their last four home games following a win.
• The Lightning have won the third period in six of their last seven road games when leading after the second period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Canadiens’ last five games after coming off overtime has gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Four of the Lightning’s last five road games have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Eight of the last nine Sunday night games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in 10 of the Lightning’s last 11 games after coming off overtime.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in 13 of the Canadiens’ last 14 games as home underdogs.

Montreal Canadiens Player Prop Facts

• Mike Matheson has recorded an assist in each of his six previous Sunday appearances against the Lightning.
• Juraj Slafkovsky has scored a goal in six of the Canadiens’ last eight games as home underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Cole Caufield ranks 1st in the league for Game Winning Goals (12) this season.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Hagel has scored a goal in each of his last five road appearances against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Jake Guentzel has recorded an assist in each of his last four appearances in Game 4s of a playoff series.
• Nikita Kucherov ranks T1st in the league for multi-assist games (25) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Montreal Canadiens rank 7th in the league for goals per game this season (3.40).
• The Montreal Canadiens have recorded the equal-most wins when tied or trailing after Period 1 this season (29).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 3rd in the league for goals against per game this season (2.79).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 3rd in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (82.56%).

Canadiens vs Lightning Injury Report

The Canadiens are without Noah Dobson and Patrik Laine.

Pontus Holmberg and Victor Hedman are out for the Lightning. Charle-Edouard D’Astous is questionable.

Canadiens vs Lightning Prediction

The Lightning keep getting respect because of their history in the postseason and you can argue they’re the better team on paper when factoring in the injury report. However, the Habs are still a strong team that keeps getting disrespected in the market. We’ve been on the Canadiens a lot in this series and they’re one win away from taking complete control. You’re giving me a pick ’em price; I have to give the edge to the home team. The Habs have won 4 of the last 5 games against the Lighting, so there’s a confidence level here. Give me the candidates to take a 3-1 lead.