Canadiens vs Lightning Prediction 4/9/26 NHL Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Canadiens vs Lightning prediction for this NHL game on Thursday, April 9th at the Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Montreal Canadiens Betting Preview

The Montreal Canadiens are 46-22-10 this season after they defeated the Panthers in a shootout by a score of 4-3 in their last game. Montreal trailed 1-0, 2-1, and 3-2, but they fought back each time and eventually got the win in a shootout. The Canadiens were out shot by a total of 33-32, won 56.9% of the face-offs, and went 1-4 on the power play in the game. Montreal got goals from Danault, Demidov, and Suzuki, while Dobes stopped 30 out of 33 shots, which was a .909 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Montreal lost to the Devils by a score of 3-0, but did beat the Devils by a score of 4-3 before that. The Canadiens have won nine of their last ten games and they are currently third in the Atlantic standings with 102 points. Montreal has scored 3.45 goals per game and they have allowed 3.08 goals against per game, while also going 23.9% on the power play and 77.7% on the penalty kill this season. Nick Suzuki has led Montreal with 28 goals and 68 assists, while Lane Hutson has added 12 goals and 63 assists. The projected starting goalie for Montreal is Jakub Dobes, who is 28-8-4 with a 2.73 goals against average and a .904 save percentage this season. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 48-24-6 this year after they lost to the Senators by a score of 6-2 in their last game. Tampa Bay cut the deficit to 3-2 in the third period, but they allowed the last three goals for the lopsided loss. The Lightning were out shot by a total of 32-30, won 60.9% of the face-offs, and went 0-2 on the power play in the game. Tampa Bay got goals from Paul and Perry, while Johansson stopped 26 out of 31 shots, which was an .839 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Tampa Bay lost to the Sabres by a score of 4-2, but did beat the Bruins by a score of 3-1 before that. The Lightning have lost three of their last five games and they are currently second in the Atlantic standings with 102 points. Tampa Bay has scored 3.55 goals per game and they have allowed 2.81 goals against per game, while also going 21.5% on the power play and 82.0% on the penalty kill this season. Nikita Kucherov has led TB with 43 goals and 84 assists, while Jake Guentzel has added 37 goals and 49 assists. The projected starting goalie for Tampa Bay is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is 37-14-4 with a 2.33 goals against average and a .912 save percentage this season. 

Why the Montreal Canadiens will win

• The Canadiens have won each of their last nine games as underdogs after coming off overtime.
• The Lightning have lost 18 of their last 31 games as road favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Canadiens have covered the puck line in each of their last 23 games as underdogs.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in four of their last five games as road favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Canadiens have won the second period in each of their last eight games as underdogs when trailing after the first period.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The road team has won six of the Canadiens’ last seven games.
• The Canadiens have lost six of their last seven home games following a shootout win.
• The road team has covered the puck line in nine of the last 10 games between the Lightning and Canadiens.
• The Canadiens have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last four games.
• The Lightning have won the first period in seven of their last eight road games against the Canadiens.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Canadiens’ last six games as home underdogs following a home win have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Seven of the Lightning’s last eight road games have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Each of the last three games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Canadiens’ last 12 games as home underdogs.
• The ‘Over 2.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in four of the Lightning’s last five road games against the Canadiens.

Montreal Canadiens Player Prop Facts

• Juraj Slafkovsky has scored the first goal in four of the Canadiens’ last five games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Cole Caufield has scored at least one goal in each of his last six appearances with the Canadiens as underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Lane Hutson has recorded at least one assist in eight of the Canadiens’ last nine games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Cole Caufield ranks 1st in the league for Game Winning Goals (12) this season.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Nikita Kucherov has scored a goal in each of his last four road appearances against the Canadiens.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in seven of the Lightning’s last eight road games.
• Nikita Kucherov ranks 1st in the league for multi-assist games (25) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Montreal Canadiens rank 6th in the league for goals per game this season (3.45).
• The Montreal Canadiens rank 8th in the league in power play percentage this season (23.89%).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank T2nd in the league for goals per game this season (3.55).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of only two teams in the league to rank top 5 for both goals for and goals against per game this season.

Canadiens vs Lightning Prediction 

These two teams come into this matchup tied with 102 points for second in the Atlantic standings, so this is a huge game in the playoff race. The Lightning are 23-11-5 on the road this year, while the Canadiens are 23-14-2 at home. Montreal has won nine of their last ten games, including a 4-1 win over Tampa Bay on March 31st. Tampa Bay has dropped three of their last five and they have been outscored 10-4 in their last two. I think Montreal is playing the better hockey right now and they are at home, so give me the Canadiens to win here.