Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Prediction 11/7/26 NHL Picks Today

Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Prediction

In this Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Prediction, the Canadiens are coming as -115 road favorites. The Canadiens have been in excellent form, having won six of their last seven games and have been excellent on the road, while the Leafs have been struggling with a 1-3 record in their last 4 games and have more losses than wins at home this season. But they have a better offense, power play and penalty kill and I will not fade them at home in this spot. I like the total more, as the Canadiens are coming off three straight games with nine total goals, and the Leafs have 6.9 average total goals throughout the season. Take the over 6.5 goals in this one.

The Canadiens have won their 4 meetings against the Leafs and have won their last two visits in Toronto. Under is 7-3 in their last 10 meetings.

Toronto Maple Leafs Preview

The Maple Leafs have 18 points this season with an 8-7-2 record and a 4-4-1 home record. They are 11-6 ATS and 10-7 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-2 home loss against the Mammoth and will face the Devils and Avalanche next.

Offensively, the Maple Leafs are averaging 3.65 goals per game with 28.2 shots on goal per game and are scoring 28.8% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 3.24 goals per game on 29.7 shots on goal per game and are killing 88.1% of their opponent’s power plays. They have 173 total penalty minutes this season.

Auston Matthews leads the Maple Leafs with 26 points, adding a team-high 11 goals with 51 shots on goal and a team-high 15 assists. Sergei Bobrovsky is the starting goalie for the Maple Leafs, and he has a 3-6-2 record, with 3.27 GAA and .889 SV%. Anthony Stolarz is the backup goalie and he has a 5-1-0 record, with 2.66 GAA and .910 SV%.

Injury Report:

• John Tavares — IR, est. return Nov 7
• Kirill Marchenko — IR, est. return Nov 17
• Miles Wood — IR-LT, est. return Nov 7
• Nick Blankenburg — IR, est. return Nov 12
• Marshall Rifai — IR, est. return Nov 8

Montreal Canadiens Preview

The Canadiens have 23 points this season with a 10-3-3 record and a 5-1-1 road record. They are 7-9 ATS and 11-5 in over/under. They are coming off a 5-4 overtime home win against the Mammoth and will face the Wild and Bruins next.

Offensively, the Canadiens are averaging 3.44 goals per game with 27.6 shots on goal per game and are scoring 14.0% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 3.19 goals per game on 28.3 shots on goal per game and are killing 78.5% of their opponent’s power plays. They have 192 total penalty minutes this season.

Lane Hutson leads the Canadiens with 16 points, adding a team-high 13 assists, while Cole Caufield leads the team in goals with 11 with 54 shots on goal. Jacob Fowler is the starting goalie for the Canadiens, and he has a 7-1-2 record, with 2.17 GAA and .925 SV%. Jakub Dobes is the backup goalie and he has a 3-2-2 record, with 4.04 GAA and .847 SV%.

Injury Report:

• Ivan Demidov — IR, est. return Nov 14
• Mike Matheson — OUT, est. return Nov 14
• Sam Montembeault — IR, est. return Nov 7
• Bryce Pickford — IR-NR, est. return Nov 30
• Lucas Condotta — IR-NR, est. return Nov 30

Montreal Canadiens @ Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Trends: November 7, 2026

Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will win

• The Canadiens have lost four of their last five games as favorites following a home win.
• The Maple Leafs have won three of their last four games as underdogs.
• The Canadiens have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last eight games as favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the puck line in 10 of the Maple Leafs’ last 11 games at Scotiabank Arena.
• The underdogs have won the third period in five of the Canadiens’ last six games.

Why the Montreal Canadiens will win

• The Maple Leafs have lost each of their last 10 games as an underdog when playing with a rest advantage.
• The Canadiens have won 13 of their last 14 games against the Maple Leafs after coming off overtime.
• The Canadiens have covered the puck line in each of their last five road games after coming off overtime.
• The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in 12 of their last 15 games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Maple Leafs have lost the second period in each of their last five games as underdogs following a home loss.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Canadiens’ last four games against Eastern Conference opponents have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Five of the Maple Leafs’ last six night games have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Canadiens’ last nine games after coming off overtime.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last 11 night games.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

• Jack Roslovic has scored at least one goal in four of the Maple Leafs’ last five games as underdogs.
• John Tavares has recorded at least one assist in each of the Maple Leafs’ last four home games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Morgan Rielly has recorded two hits against the Canadiens this season – equal-most against any opponent.

Montreal Canadiens Player Prop Facts

• Cole Caufield has scored at least one goal in three of the Canadiens’ last four games.
• Nick Suzuki has recorded at least one assist in 14 of his last 17 appearances with the Canadiens as road favorites.
• Zachary Bolduc ranks T1st in the league for shootout goals (2) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 7th in the league for goals per game this season (3.65).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs have recorded the equal-most wins when trailing after Period 1 this season (3).
• The Montreal Canadiens have suffered the largest comeback loss this season – led by four goals vs Jets on November, 3.
• The Montreal Canadiens are the only team to lose a game when leading by four or more goals this season.