Capitals vs Lightning Prediction 11/22/25 NHL Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Capitals vs Lightning prediction for this NHL game on Saturday, November 22nd at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Washington Capitals Betting Preview

The Washington Capitals are 11-8-2 this year after they defeated Montreal by a score of 8-4 in their last game. Washington led for pretty much the entire game and they scored three goals in the last four minutes of the third to pull away for the lopsided win. The Capitals out shot Montreal by a total of 36-28, won 45.5% of the face-offs, and went 2-4 on the power play in the game. Washington got goals from Frank (2), Milano (2), Ovechkin (3), and Chychrun, while Lindgren stopped 24 out of 28 shots, which was an .857 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Washington defeated the Oilers by a score of 7-4 and the Kings by a score of 2-1. The Capitals have won three games in a row and they are currently fifth in the Metro standings with 24 points. Washington has scored 3.24 goals per game and they have allowed 2.62 goals against per game, while also going 16.1% on the power play and 72.1% on the penalty kill this season. Tom Wilson has led Washington with 11 goals and 9 assists, while Alex Ovechkin has added 10 goals and 10 assists. The projected starting goalie for Washington is Logan Thompson, who is 8-5-1 with a 2.00 goals against average and a .920 save percentage this year. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 11-7-2 this season after they defeated Edmonton by a score of 2-1 in their last game. Tampa Bay trailed for almost the entire game, but they tied it up with 2:32 left in the third and won early in overtime. The Lightning out shot Edmonton by a total of 35-25, won 42.6% of the face-offs, and went 0-3 on the power play in the game. Tampa Bay got goals from Guentzel and Paul, while Vasilevskiy stopped 24 out of 25 shots, which was a .960 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Tampa Bay defeated the Devils by a score of 5-1, but lost to the Canucks by a score of 6-2 before that. The Lightning have won three of their last four games and they are currently second in the Atlantic standings with 24 points. Tampa Bay has scored 3.05 goals per game and they have allowed 2.85 goals against per game, while also going 16.9% on the power play and 86.2% on the penalty kill this season. Jake Guentzel has led TB with 12 goals and nine assists, while Nikita Kucherov has added nine goals and 10 assists. The projected starting goalie for Tampa Bay is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is 8-5-2 with a 2.52 goals against average and a .909 save percentage this season. 

Why the Washington Capitals will win

• The Capitals have won seven of their last eight night games at Capital One Arena following a road win.
• The Lightning have lost six of their last seven games at Capital One Arena after coming off overtime.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last seven night games at Capital One Arena.
• The Capitals have covered the puck line in seven of their last eight home games against the Lightning.
• The Capitals have won the second period in each of their last six night games against the Lightning when trailing after the first period.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Capitals have lost eight of their last nine games as home favorites against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Lightning have won three of their last four games as underdogs.
• The Capitals have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last 11 games as home favorites against opponents on a winning streak.
• The road team has covered the puck line in 14 of the Lightning’s last 15 games.
• The Lightning have won the first period in each of their last six games against the Capitals following a win.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Capitals’ last nine night games against opponents on a winning streak have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Seven of the Lightning’s last eight games against the Capitals following a win have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Capitals’ last seven home games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last four games against Metropolitan Division opponents.

Washington Capitals Player Prop Facts

• Alex Ovechkin has scored at least one goal in each of the Capitals’ last four games.
• Jakob Chychrun has recorded at least one point in each of the Capitals’ last six games.
• Jakob Chychrun has recorded at least one assist in each of the Capitals’ last five home games.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Jake Guentzel has scored at least one goal in five of the Lightning’s last six games.
• Jake Guentzel has recorded at least one point in each of his last six appearances in night games at Capital One Arena.
• Victor Hedman has recorded at least one assist in each of his last five appearances with the Lightning as underdogs.

Capitals vs Lightning Prediction 

Washington comes into this matchup with the home ice advantage and they have won three games in a row. The Capitals are 6-4-1 at home this year, while the Lightning are 5-2-2 on the road. Tampa Bay has won three of their last four games and they have allowed exactly one goal in each of those wins. Despite that solid defense, Tampa Bay has gone over 5.5 goals in three of their last five, while Washington has gone over 5.5 goals in three of their last five. Take the over here.