Capitals vs Senators Prediction 1/1/26 NHL Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Capitals vs Senators Prediction for this NHL game on Thursday, January 1^st. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Ottawa Senators Preview

The Senators have 41 points this season with a 18-15-5 record, and are 15-23 ATS and 22-16 in over/under. They have a 8-7-3 home record and a 10-8-2 road record and are sitting 8th in the Atlantic Division. They are coming off a 4-1 home loss to the Blue Jackets, and their previous three games were a 7-5 road loss to the Maple Leafs, a 3-2 home overtime loss to the Sabres, and a 6-2 road win over the Bruins.

Offensively, the Senators are averaging 3.21 goals per game and are scoring 25.0% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 3.26 goals per game and are killing 71.4% of their opponent’s power plays.

Tim Stutzle leads the Senators with 41 points, also leading the team in goals with 19, adding a team-high 22 assists. Linus Ullmark is the starting goalie for the Senators, and he has a 14-8-5 record, with 2.95 GAA and .881 SV%. Leevi Merilainen is the backup goalie and he has a 4-7 record, with 3.51 GAA and .869 SV%.

Washington Capitals Preview

The Capitals have 45 points this season with a 21-14-5 record, and are 21-18 ATS and 18-18 in over/under. They have a 12-7-2 home record and a 9-7-3 road record and are sitting 4th in the Metropolitan Division. They are coming off a 6-3 home win over the Rangers, and their previous three games were a 5-3 road loss to the Panthers, a 4-3 road overtime win over the Devils, and a 7-3 home loss to the Rangers.

Offensively, the Capitals are averaging 3.18 goals per game and are scoring 15.2% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 2.74 goals per game and are killing 76.6% of their opponent’s power plays.

Tom Wilson leads the Capitals with 40 points, also leading the team in goals with 21, while Dylan Strome leads the team in assists with 23. Logan Thompson is the starting goalie for the Capitals, and he has a 15-10-3 record, with 2.33 GAA and .915 SV%. Charlie Lindgren is the backup goalie and he has a 6-4-2 record, with 3.07 GAA and .887 SV%.

Washington Capitals @ Ottawa Senators Betting Trends: January 1, 2026

Why the Ottawa Senators will win

• The Senators have won 10 of their last 11 day games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Capitals have lost each of their last four games following a win.
• The Senators have covered the puck line in each of their last four games against the Capitals following a loss.
• The Capitals have failed to cover the puck line in eight of their last 10 games at Canadian Tire Centre following a home win.
• The Capitals have lost the third period in six of their last seven games as underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents when trailing after the second period.

Why the Washington Capitals will win

• The Capitals have won six of their last seven games as underdogs against opponents on a losing streak.
• The Senators have lost four of their last five games as home favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Capitals have covered the puck line in each of their last seven games as underdogs against opponents on a losing streak.
• The Senators have failed to cover the puck line in nine of their last 10 games as home favorites following a loss.
• The Senators have lost the second period in each of their last five day games at Canadian Tire Centre when tied after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Ten of the Capitals’ last 11 road games against opponents on a losing streak have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Seven of the Senators’ last eight day games against Eastern Conference opponents at Canadian Tire Centre have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Capitals’ last 12 games following a home win.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Senators’ last 10 games.

Ottawa Senators Player Prop Facts

• Tim Stutzle has scored at least one goal in five of the Senators’ last six day games.
• David Perron has recorded at least one assist in each of his last four home appearances against the Capitals.
• Brady Tkachuk has recorded at least two shots in each of his last 20 appearances – longest active streak in the league.

Washington Capitals Player Prop Facts

• Aliaksei Protas has scored a goal in three of the Capitals’ last four games.
• Aliaksei Protas has recorded at least one assist in each of the Capitals’ last four games.
• Dylan McIlrath has recorded three hits against the Senators this season – equal-most against any opponent.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Ottawa Senators rank 32nd in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (71.43%).
• The Ottawa Senators rank T5th in the league in power play percentage this season (25.00%).
• The Washington Capitals rank 29th in the league in power play percentage this season (15.65%).
• The Washington Capitals are one of four teams to rank in the top 10 for both goals scored and goals conceded per game this season.

Capitals vs Senators Prediction

In their previous meeting earlier this season, the Senators won 7-1 on the road but both teams are tied 3-3 in their last 6 meetings. Over is 6-2 in their last 8 meetings.

In this Capitals vs Senators Prediction, the Senators are coming as -143 home favorites. The Caps have been the better team this season but they are on the second leg of a brutal back-to-back on new years eve and new year’s day. The Senators have three consecutive losses so I would rather not pick a side, but both teams have been playing some higher-scoring games lately, going for 7-2 to the over in their last 9 games combined and their previous meeting this season had 8 total goals. I expect little defense on new years day, so take the over 6.