Tampa Bay Lightning (40-24-5) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (41-20-8)
March 23, 2025 8:00 pm EDT
The Line: Vegas Golden Knights -115 / Tampa Bay Lightning -105; Over/Under: 6.5
(Get latest betting odds)
In this article, we will formulate a Golden Knights vs Lightning prediction for this NHL game on Sunday, March 23 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.
Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview
The Tampa Bay Lightning (40-24-5, 36-33 ATS) responded to a three-game losing skid with three straight victories over the Bruins, Flyers, and Stars. However, the Lightning returned to losing ways with a 6-4 road loss to the Utah Hockey Club. Tampa Bay is 3rd in the Atlantic Division Standings with 85 points, just two behind the Maple Leafs and Panthers.
The Lightning average 3.49 goals per game this year (2nd), while they allow 2.68 GPG (7th). Nikita Kucherov leads the team with 97 points (29 G and 68 A). Brandon Hagel contributes 76 points (32 G and 44 A), while Brayden Point has 68 points (34 G and 34 A).
Andrei Vasilevskiy (33-18-3) will likely take his place in the cage for the Lightning on Sunday against the Golden Knights. The 30-year-old is allowing 2.23 goals per game this year with a .920 SV% and five shutouts.
Vegas Golden Knights Betting Preview
The Vegas Golden Knights (41-20-8, 40-29 ATS) have not been playing very well recently as they lost four of the previous even games. The Golden Knights lost to the Kings, Penguins, Sabres, and Red Wings, while they beat the Blue Jackets, Bruins, and Red Wings during this stretch. Vegas is at the top of the Pacific Division Standings with 90 points, three ahead of the Edmonton Oilers.
The Golden Knights score 3.36 goals per game on average (5th), while they concede 2.68 GPG (7th). This season, Jack Eichel leads the team with 86 points (22 G and 66 A). Mark Stone has 61 points (18 G and 43 A), while Tomas Hertl chips in with 58 points (30 G and 28 A).
Ilya Samsonov (15-9-3) is expected to start for the Golden Knights at the goal on Sunday against the Lightning. The 28-year-old is allowing 2.81 goals per game this year with a .889 SV% and two shutouts.
Total Goals Facts
- Seven of the last eight night games between the Lightning and Golden Knights have gone OVER the total goals line.
- Seven of the Lightning’s last eight night games against Pacific Division opponents have gone UNDER the total goals line.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in 18 of the Golden Knights’ last 19 games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last nine Sunday games.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Vegas Golden Knights rank T7th in the league for goals against per game this season (2.68).
- The Vegas Golden Knights are one of seven teams to rank in the top 10 for both goals scored and goals conceded per game this season.
- The Tampa Bay Lightning rank T7th in the league for goals against per game this season (2.68).
- The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 7th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (82.18%).
Golden Knights vs Lightning Prediction
The teams have traded victories over the last few seasons as each recorded five in the previous ten meetings. The Lightning won the last three H2Hs, including the first one of this season when it was 4-3 in Tampa. Seven of the last eight H2Hs went Over, and I expect another high-scoring affair on Sunday. We have top 5 offenses here and there should be a bunch of shots and hopefully, goals. Go with Over.
