Islanders vs Lightning Prediction 12/13/25 NHL Picks Today

In this article we will formulate an Islanders vs Lightning prediction for this NHL game on Saturday, December 13th at UBS Arena in Elmont, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

New York Islanders Betting Preview

The New York islanders are 18-11-3 this season after they defeated Anaheim by a score of 5-2 in their last game. New York scored three goals in the first period, but they only led 3-2 in the third, before scoring the last two goals to seal the win. The Islanders out shot Anaheim by a total of 37-33, won 54.3% of the face-offs, and went 2-4 on the power play in the game. New York got goals from Holmstrom, Lee (2), Mitchell, and Pulock, while Rittich stopped 31 out of 33 shots, which was a .939 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, New York defeated the Golden Knights by a score of 5-4, but did lose to the Panthers by a score of 4-1 before that. The Islanders have won five of their last six games and they are currently third in the Metro standings with 39 points. New York has scored 2.97 goals per game and they have allowed 2.75 goals against per game, while also going 16.3% on the power play and 84.4% on the penalty kill this season. Bo Horvat has led New York with 19 goals and 12 assists, while Mathew Barzal has added nine goals and 15 assists. The projected starting goalie for New York is Ilya Sorokin, who is 11-8-2 with a 2.53 goals against average and a .910 save percentage this season. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 18-11-2 this year after they defeated New Jersey by a score of 8-4 in their last game. Tampa Bay led 5-1 in the second period and alternated goals with the Devils the rest of the way for the win. The Lightning were out shot by a total of 37-35, won 51.5% of the face-offs, and went 2-3 on the power play in the game. TB got goals from Bjorkstrand (2), Guentzel, Hagel, Holmberg, Paul, Point, and Raddysh, while Johansson stopped 33 out of 37 shots, which was an .892 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Tampa Bay defeated the Canadiens by a score of 6-1, but lost to the Maple Leafs by a score of 2-0 before that. The Lightning have won two games in a row and they are currently first in the Atlantic standings with 38 points. Tampa Bay has scored 3.29 goals per game and they have allowed 2.58 goals against per game, while also going 17.9% on the power play and 85.9% on the penalty kill this season. Nikita Kucherov has led Tampa Bay with 13 goals and 27 assists, while Jake Guentzel has added 15 goals and 17 assists. The projected starting goalie for Tampa Bay is Jonas Johansson, who is 7-5-0 with a 2.65 goals against average and a .905 save percentage this year. 

Why the New York Islanders will win

• The Islanders have won seven of their last eight games as home underdogs following a home win.
• The Lightning have lost three of their last four games as favorites against Metropolitan Division opponents.
• The Islanders have covered the puck line in each of their last 11 games as home underdogs following a home win.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last four games as road favorites against opponents on a winning streak.
• The underdogs have won the second period in each of the Islanders’ last four games at UBS Arena.

Total Goals Facts

• Eight of the Islanders’ last nine games against Eastern Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Four of the Lightning’s last five road games against opponents on a winning streak have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Islanders’ last 11 day games against opponents on a winning streak.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last 10 Saturday day games.

New York Islanders Player Prop Facts

• Bo Horvat has recorded at least one point in eight of the Islanders’ last nine games as home underdogs.
• Matthew Schaefer has recorded an assist in five of the Islanders’ last six games as home underdogs.
• Bo Horvat has scored at least one goal in each of the Islanders’ last five games as home underdogs.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Jake Guentzel has scored a goal in six of the Lightning’s last seven day games.
• Jake Guentzel has recorded at least one point in each of the Lightning’s last seven day games.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in each of his last nine Saturday road appearances.

Matchup/League Facts

• The New York Islanders rank 5th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (84.44%).
• The New York Islanders rank 8th in the league for goals against per game this season (2.75).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 2nd in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (85.86%).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 4th in the league for goals against per game this season (2.58).

Islanders vs Lightning Prediction 

These two teams come into this matchup with very similar records on the season, but New York has been hotter and they are at home. The Islanders are 9-6-2 at home this year, while the Lightning are 10-4-2 on the road. Tampa Bay has won two games in a row and they have scored 14 goals in those two wins, but they are still without Hedman and Vasilevskiy. I have been burned by fading the Lightning in recent games, but I have to side with the red hot Islanders here.