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Kings vs Lightning Prediction 1/1/26 NHL Picks Today

Tampa Bay Lightning (23-13-3) vs. LA Kings (16-13-9)
January 1, 2026 7:00 pm EDT
The Line: LA Kings -125 / Tampa Bay Lightning 105; Over/Under: 5.5
(Get latest betting odds)

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Los Angeles Kings meet Thursday in NHL action at the crypto.com Arena. Here’s a Kings vs Lightning Prediction. This article will include a Kings vs Lightning Pick.

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Habs and Ducks, and they play the Sharks next. The Lightning have won 5 straight games.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are averaging 3.31 goals per game and are scoring on 17.5 percent of their power play opportunities. Brandon Hagel leads Tampa Bay with 18 goals, Nikita Kucherov has 33 assists, and Jake Guentzel has 103 shots on goal. Defensively, the Tampa Bay Lightning are allowing 2.64 goals per game and are killing 84.8 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Andrei Vasilevskiy has allowed 55 goals on 629 shots faced, while Jonas Johansson has given up 43 goals on 413 shots.

Los Angeles Kings Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Kings beat the Ducks, lost to the Avs, and they play the Wild next. The Kings have lost 7 of their last 9 games.

The Los Angeles Kings are averaging 2.58 goals per game and are scoring 14.4 percent of their power play opportunities. Adrian Kempe leads Los Angeles with 13 goals, Quinton Byfield has 16 assists, and Kevin Fiala has 107 shots on goal. Defensively, the Los Angeles Kings are allowing 2.55 goals per game and are killing 78.3 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Darcy Kuemper has given up 49 goals on 588 shots faced, while Anton Forsberg has allowed 40 goals on 403 shots.

Why the Los Angeles Kings will win

  • The Kings have won each of their last six day games at Crypto.com Arena against opponents on a winning streak.
  • The Lightning have lost eight of their last 10 road games following a road win.
  • The Kings have covered the puck line in each of their last seven day games at Crypto.com Arena against opponents on a winning streak.
  • The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in four of their last five games against Pacific Division opponents.
  • The Lightning have lost the second period in seven of their last eight games as road underdogs against Western Conference opponents when leading after the first period.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

  • The Kings have lost seven of their last eight games as home favorites following a road loss.
  • The Lightning have won each of their last four games as underdogs.
  • The Kings have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last nine home games following a road loss.
  • The Lightning have covered the puck line in each of their last seven games as underdogs.
  • The Kings have lost the second period in each of their last six games when leading after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

  • Seven of the Kings’ last eight home games following a road loss have gone UNDER the total goals line.
  • Five of the Lightning’s last six road games following a road win have gone UNDER the total goals line.
  • The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Kings’ last eight home games against Atlantic Division opponents.
  • The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last seven games.

Los Angeles Kings Player Prop Facts

  • Kevin Fiala has scored at least one goal in four of the Kings’ last five day games.
  • Drew Doughty has recorded at least one assist in seven of his last eight appearances in day games.
  • Adrian Kempe ranks T2nd in the league for Game Winning Goals (5) this season.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

  • Brandon Hagel has recorded at least one assist in eight of his last nine appearances against Pacific Division opponents.
  • Nikita Kucherov has scored at least one goal in five of his last six appearances against Pacific Division opponents.
  • Charle-Edouard D’Astous has recorded three hits against the Kings this season – equal-most against any opponent.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Los Angeles Kings rank 32nd in the league in power play percentage this season (14.41%).
  • The Los Angeles Kings rank 2nd in the league for goals against per game this season (2.55).
  • The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 3rd in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (84.85%).
  • The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 5 for both goals for and goals against per game this season.

Kings vs Lightning Prediction

I’m not sure what the Kings have done to deserve to be favored, but I’m not buying it. The Kings just can’t find consistent offense, and they have just 5 home wins this season. The Lightning are playing the better hockey overall, and they have 12 road wins. The Lightning are the better team, and you’ll make a lot of money in this business if you can get the more favorable prices with the better team long term. I’ll side with the Lightning as one of the better bets on the NHL card for New Year’s Day.

Randy Chambers's Free Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning 105

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Randy Chambers

Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA. Follow Randy Chambers on Twitter.

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