Lightning vs Flames Prediction Prediction 3/22/26 NHL Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Lightning vs Flames Prediction for this NHL game on Sunday, March 22^nd. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Calgary Flames Preview

The Flames have 63 points this season with a 28-34-7 record, and are 36-33 ATS and 32-34 in over/under. They have a 18-12-4 home record and a 10-22-3 road record and are sitting 7th in the Pacific Division. They are coming off a 4-1 home win over the Panthers, and their previous three games were a 2-1 home shootout win over the Blues, a 5-2 road loss to the Red Wings, and a 3-2 road loss to the Islanders.

Offensively, the Flames are averaging 2.46 goals per game and are scoring 15.8% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 3.06 goals per game and are killing 81.0% of their opponent’s power plays.

Mikael Backlund leads the Flames with 38 points and 15 goals, adding a team-high 23 assists. Dustin Wolf is the starting goalie for the Flames, and he has a 19-25-3 record, with 2.98 GAA and .898 SV%. Devin Cooley is the backup goalie and he has a 8-9-4 record, with 2.47 GAA and .915 SV%.

Tampa Bay Lightning Preview

The Lightning have 90 points this season with a 43-21-4 record, and are 37-31 ATS and 35-29 in over/under. They have a 20-12-0 home record and a 23-9-4 road record and are sitting 2nd in the Atlantic Division. They are coming off a 5-2 road win over the Oilers, and their previous three games were a 6-2 road win over the Canucks, a 6-2 road win over the Kraken, and a 4-2 home loss to the Hurricanes.

Offensively, the Lightning are averaging 3.59 goals per game and are scoring 22.1% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 2.74 goals per game and are killing 82.3% of their opponent’s power plays.

Nikita Kucherov leads the Lightning with 118 points and 40 goals, adding a team-high 78 assists. Andrei Vasilevskiy is the starting goalie for the Lightning, and he has a 33-12-3 record, with 2.29 GAA and .915 SV%. Jonas Johansson is the backup goalie and he has a 10-9-1 record, with 3.23 GAA and .884 SV%.

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Calgary Flames Betting Trends: March 22, 2026

Why the Calgary Flames will win

• The home team has won seven of the Flames’ last eight games.
• The Lightning have lost each of their last two games as favorites on the second leg of a back-to-back.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in seven of their last eight games as favorites on the second leg of a back-to-back.
• The Flames have covered the puck line in seven of their last eight games as home underdogs following a win.
• The Flames have won the third period in five of their last six night games against Eastern Conference opponents at Scotiabank Saddledome when leading after the second period.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Lightning have won each of their last seven games against Pacific Division opponents.
• The Flames have lost each of their last six games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in each of their last six games against Pacific Division opponents.
• The Flames have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last five games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Lightning have won the third period in each of their last seven games against Western Conference opponents when leading after the second period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Lightning’s last seven road games against Pacific Division opponents have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Each of the Flames’ last four home games against opponents on a winning streak have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last 14 games as favorites.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Flames’ last seven home games against the Lightning.

Calgary Flames Player Prop Facts

• Morgan Frost has scored a goal in each of the Flames’ last three home games against opponents who are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back.
• Ryan Strome has recorded an assist in each of his last four appearances with his team as a home underdog.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Nikita Kucherov has scored at least one goal in each of the Lightning’s last eight road games against Pacific Division opponents.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in each of his last nine appearances against Pacific Division opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Calgary Flames rank 32nd in the league for goals per game this season (2.46).
• The Calgary Flames rank 31st in the league in power play percentage this season (15.76%).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 2nd in the league for goals per game this season (3.59).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of only two teams in the league to rank top 5 for both goals for and goals against per game this season.

Lightning vs Flames Prediction

The Lightning won their previous meeting against the Flames this season by 5-1 at home but both teams are tied 4-4 in their last 8 meetings.

In this Lightning vs Flames Prediction, the Lightning are coming as -180 road favorites. The Flames have nothing to play for and the Lightning are on the second leg of a road back-to-back and will be playing their third road game in four nights. They are a perfect 3-0 in this road trip, outscoring their opponents by 17-6 goals and I cannot see them stopping here against a bad Flames team. Take the Lightning on the moneyline in this one.