Lightning vs Islanders Prediction 3/29/25 NHL Picks Today

The New York Islanders and the Tampa Bay Lightning meet Saturday in NHL action from the Amalie Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Lightning vs Islanders Prediction.

Matchup History

The New York Islanders won the lone meeting this season between these two teams by a final score of 3-2 in OT back on February 1^st, 2025 in Tampa Bay. Despite the road win, the home team has still won 5 of the last 7 head-to-head meetings between these two teams.

New York Islanders Recap

The New York Islanders will be looking to bounce back from a 5-2 loss at the hands of the Vancouver Canucks last time out to fall to 32-29-10 on the year. After this game, the Islanders will head on the road for a game against the Carolina Hurricanes.

Islanders Lose Third In A Row

Anders Lee has 48 points including 26 goals and 22 assists while Kyle Palmieri has 45 points split between 22 goals and 23 assists. Bo Horvat has 49 points with 24 goals and 25 assists. Simon Holmstrom has 38 points with 17 goals and 21 assists and Maxim Tsyplakov has 30 points with 8 goals and 22 assists. Ilya Sorokin has gone 27-21-6 with a 2.76 GAA and a .906 save percentage in goal for the Islanders while Semyon Varlamov is 3-4-3 with a 2.89 GAA and an .889 save percentage this season. Marcus Hogberg has also gone 2-3-1 with a 1.92 GAA and a .931 save percentage as well on the year.

Why the New York Islanders will win

• The underdogs have won each of the Islanders’ last three games.
• The Lightning have lost each of their last two games as favorites against opponents on a losing streak.
• The road team has covered the puck line in each of the Islanders’ last five games.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in four of their last five day games at Amalie Arena against opponents on a losing streak.

New York Islanders Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Palmieri has scored a goal in four of the Islanders’ last five games against the Lightning.
• Anthony DeAngelo has recorded at least one point in each of his last six appearances with his team as an underdog against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Mathew Barzal has recorded an assist in each of his last four appearances with the Islanders as road underdogs.

Tampa Bay Lightning Recap

The Tampa Bay Lightning will be out to add on to their 8-0 win over the Utah Hockey Club in their last game to sit at 42-25-5 on the year. After this game, Tampa Bay will head on the road for a game against the New York Islanders to start a road trip.

Lightning Win Back-To-Back Games

Nikita Kucherov leads the Bolts with 105 points including a team-high 32 goals and 73 assists while Brandon Hagel has 80 points with 33 goals and 47 assists and Anthony Cirelli has 52 points of his own with 26 goals and 26 assists. Brayden Point has 71 points with 36 goals and 35 assists while Victor Hedman has 57 points with 44 assists. Jake Guentzel also has 70 points with 36 goals and 34 assists. Andrei Vasilevskiy has gone 35-19-3 with a 2.18 GAA and a .921 save percentage while Jonas Johansson has gone 7-5-2 with a 3.12 GAA and an .896 save percentage on the year in goal for Tampa Bay.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Islanders have lost 11 of their last 12 day games against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Lightning have won 10 of their last 11 games at Amalie Arena.
• The home team has covered the puck line in each of the Lightning’s last six games.
• The Islanders have failed to cover the puck line in nine of their last 10 day games against Atlantic Division opponents.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Nikita Kucherov has scored a goal in each of the Lightning’s last five games as home favorites against Metropolitan Division opponents.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one point in each of his last 23 home appearances against Metropolitan Division opponents.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in 11 of his last 12 appearances in day games.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Islanders’ last six games as underdogs following a home loss have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Each of the Lightning’s last four day games against Eastern Conference opponents at Amalie Arena have gone UNDER the total goals line.

Lightning vs Islanders Prediction

I’m on the Lightning in this one. I get the case to be made for an underdog in some spots, but the Lightning have been nothing short of dominant at home this season. They are not a team I’m interested in really stepping in front of, especially when the New York Islanders are the alternative. The Islanders are mathematically still in the playoff race, but they’ve inclined closer to rebuild mode and are not a team I’m looking to back at the best of times if I’m being honest. Give me Tampa Bay at home here.