Lightning vs Jets Prediction 3/5/26 NHL Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Lightning vs Jets Prediction for this NHL game on Thursday, March 5^th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Winnipeg Jets Preview

The Jets have 58 points this season with a 24-26-10 record, and are 28-32 ATS and 32-26 in over/under. They have a 13-11-5 home record and a 11-15-5 road record and are sitting 6th in the Central Division. They are coming off a 3-2 home overtime win over the Blackhawks, and their previous three games were a 2-1 road overtime loss to the Sharks, a 5-4 road overtime loss to the Ducks, and a 3-2 road overtime win over the Canucks.

Offensively, the Jets are averaging 2.83 goals per game and are scoring 18.3% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 3.07 goals per game and are killing 79.1% of their opponent’s power plays.

Mark Scheifele leads the Jets with 73 points and 28 goals, adding a team-high 45 assists. Connor Hellebuyck is the starting goalie for the Jets, and he has a 14-16-9 record, with 2.80 GAA and .900 SV%. Eric Comrie is the backup goalie and he has a 10-9-1 record, with 3.01 GAA and .893 SV%.

Tampa Bay Lightning Preview

The Lightning have 80 points this season with a 38-17-4 record, and are 31-28 ATS and 29-27 in over/under. They have a 19-10-0 home record and a 19-7-4 road record and are sitting 1st in the Atlantic Division. They are coming off a 5-1 road loss to the Wild, and their previous three games were a 6-2 home loss to the Sabres, a 5-4 road loss to the Hurricanes, and a 4-2 home win over the Maple Leafs.

Offensively, the Lightning are averaging 3.49 goals per game and are scoring 21.5% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 2.64 goals per game and are killing 83.0% of their opponent’s power plays.

Nikita Kucherov leads the Lightning with 96 points and 32 goals, adding a team-high 64 assists. Andrei Vasilevskiy is the starting goalie for the Lightning, and he has a 28-9-3 record, with 2.26 GAA and .914 SV%. Jonas Johansson is the backup goalie and he has a 10-8-1 record, with 2.98 GAA and .890 SV%.

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Winnipeg Jets Betting Trends: March 5, 2026

Why the Winnipeg Jets will win

• The Jets have won each of their last seven games as home underdogs following an overtime win.
• The Lightning have lost each of their last four games at Canada Life Centre.
• The underdogs have covered the puck line in each of the Jets’ last seven games.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last four games at Canada Life Centre.
• The home team has won the second period in each of the last five games between the Lightning and Jets.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Jets have lost each of their last 10 night games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Lightning have won 20 of their last 25 games.
• The favorites have covered the puck line in each of the last four games between the Lightning and Jets.
• The Jets have failed to cover the puck line in five of their last six home games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Lightning have won the second period in eight of their last nine games as favorites against Western Conference opponents when tied after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Ten of the Lightning’s last 11 games against Central Division opponents have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Each of the Jets’ last five home games against opponents on a losing streak have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last four games as road favorites against the Jets.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Jets’ last six home games against the Lightning.

Winnipeg Jets Player Prop Facts

• Mark Scheifele has recorded at least one assist in six of the Jets’ last seven night games.
• Alex Iafallo has scored a goal in each of his last four home appearances against the Lightning.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Nikita Kucherov has recorded an assist in each of the Lightning’s last five games against the Jets.
• Nikita Kucherov has scored a goal in each of the Lightning’s last four road games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Winnipeg Jets have recorded the equal-longest losing streak (11 games) in the NHL this season.
• The Winnipeg Jets have suffered the equal-most losses when tied or leading after Period 1 this season (23).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 2nd in the league for goals against per game this season (2.64).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of only two teams in the league to rank top 5 for both goals for and goals against per game this season.

Lightning vs Jets Prediction

The Lightning won their previous meeting against the Jets this season by 4-1 at home, but the Jets are 5-1 in their six meetings before that.

In this Lightning vs Jets Prediction, the Lightning are coming as -185 road favorites. The Lightning have been the far better team this season and have been excellent on the road, but they have been struggling lately with three consecutive losses and have also lost their last three road games. On the flip side, the Jets are coming off a hard-fought overtime win over the Blackhawks but were 1-4 in their 5 games before that, so I still don’t trust them. I like the Lightning in a bounce-back spot today, as I doubt that they will lose a fourth straight game. Take the Lightning on the moneyline in this one.