Lightning vs Maple Leafs Prediction 4/9/25 NHL Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Lightning vs Maple Leafs prediction for this NHL game on Wednesday, April 9, at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs (47-26-4, 38-39 ATS) were on a positive run of four wins as they beat the Kings, Ducks, Panthers, and Blue Jackets. However, the Maple Leafs couldn’t make it five in a row after losing to the Florida Panthers 3-1 last night. Toronto is 2nd in the Eastern Conference with 98 points, two ahead of the Lightning and Hurricanes.

The Maple Leafs score 3.25 goals per game on average (8th), while they concede 2.88 GPG (14th). This season, Mitch Marner leads the team with 94 points (24 G and 70 A). William Nylander has 82 points (44 G and 38 A), while John Tavares chips in with 71 points (37 G and 34 A).

Anthony Stolarz (18-8-3) is expected to start for the Maple Leafs at the goal on Wednesday against the Lightning. The 31-year-old is allowing 2.26 goals per game this year with a .922 SV% and two shutouts.

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning (45-26-6, 41-36 ATS) were also on a four-game winning streak before losing to the Senators and Sabres. The Lightning returned home from a four-game road trip on which they recorded two wins and two losses and now will spend four of the remaining five games at home. Tampa Bay is 4th in the East with 96 points.

The Lightning average 3.56 goals per game this year (2nd), while they allow 2.58 GPG (3rd). Nikita Kucherov leads the team with 115 points (34 G and 81 A). Brandon Hagel contributes 83 points (35 G and 48 A), while Brayden Point has 79 points (41 G and 38 A).

Andrei Vasilevskiy (37-20-3) will likely take his place in the cage for the Lightning on Wednesday against the Maple Leafs. The 30-year-old is allowing 2.16 goals per game this year with a .923 SV% and six shutouts.

Why the Lightning will beat the Maple Leafs

• The Lightning have won 11 of their last 12 games at Amalie Arena.
• The Maple Leafs have lost three of their last four night games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The favorites have covered the puck line in each of the last five games between the Maple Leafs and Lightning.
• The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in five of their last six road games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Maple Leafs have lost the second period in four of their last five games as underdogs at Amalie Arena when trailing after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Eleven of the last 12 games between teams from the same division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Each of the last four night games between the Maple Leafs and Lightning have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Twelve of the Maple Leafs’ last 14 night games at Amalie Arena have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2’ market has hit in 12 of the Lightning’s last 13 home games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last six games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 5 for both goals for and goals against per game this season.
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 6th in the league in power play percentage this season (25.69%).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 1st in the league for Period 2 goals scored per game this season (1.29).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of only four teams to win 8+ games when trailing after Period 2 this season.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Prediction

The Maple Leafs won seven of the previous ten H2H encounters, including all three duels this season. Toronto scored five goals in each of those wins, but the Leafs are playing the second game of a back-to-back, so I am giving the advantage to Tampa Bay in this one. The Lightning won 11 of the last 12 home games, and this is a great chance for them to further complicate the situation in the Eastern Conference standings with two points. Back the Lightning.