Lightning vs Penguins Prediction 12/4/25 NHL Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Lightning vs Penguins prediction for this NHL game on Thursday, December 4th at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 16-8-2 this season after they lost to the Islanders by a score of 2-1 in their last game. Tampa Bay allowed one goal in the second period and one early in the third, but did score with about three minutes left to avoid the shutout. The Lightning out shot New York by a total of 31-24, won 52.4% of the face-offs, and went 0-3 on the power play in the game. Tampa Bay got their lone goal from James, while Vasilevskiy stopped 22 out of 24 shots, which was a .917 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Tampa Bay defeated the Rangers by a score of 4-1 and the Red Wings by a score of 6-3. The Lightning have won seven of their last eight games and they are currently first in the Atlantic standings with 34 points. Tampa Bay has scored 3.27 goals per game and they have allowed 2.58 goals against per game, while also going 16.3% on the power play and 89.2% on the penalty kill this season. Nikita Kucherov has led TB with 11 goals and 21 assists, while Brandon Hagel has added 15 goals and 12 assists. The projected starting goalie for Tampa Bay is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is 11-6-2 with a 2.31 goals against average and a .917 save percentage this season. 

Pittsburgh Penguins Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Penguins are 13-7-5 this year after they defeated Philadelphia by a score of 5-1 in their last game. Pittsburgh was tied at one in the second period, but they scored two goals in the second and two in the third to pull away with the win. The Penguins were out shot by a total of 29-27, won 50.9% of the face-offs, and went 3-4 on the power play in the game. Pittsburgh got goals from Crosby (2), Hayes, Novak, and Rust, while Jarry stopped 28 out of 29 shots, which was a .966 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Pittsburgh lost to the Maple Leafs by a score of 7-2, but did beat the Blue Jackets by a score of 4-3 before that. The Penguins have won three of their last four games and they are currently fifth in the Metro standings with 31 points. Pittsburgh has scored 3.16 goals per game and they have allowed 2.72 goals against per game, while also going 33.3% on the power play and 84.9% on the penalty kill this season. Sidney Crosby has led Pittsburgh with 18 goals and 11 assists, while Evgeni Malkin has added six goals and 20 assists. The projected starting goalie for Pittsburgh is Tristan Jarry, who is 8-2-0 with a 2.57 goals against average and a .911 save percentage. 

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Penguins have lost eight of their last nine road games following a road win.
• The Lightning have won seven of their last eight games.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in six of their last seven games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Penguins have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last three games following a road win.
• The home team has won the first period in each of the last seven games between the Penguins and Lightning.

Why the Pittsburgh Penguins will win

• The underdogs have won five of the Penguins’ last six games.
• The Lightning have lost four of their last five games as favorites following a road loss.
• The Penguins have covered the puck line in each of their last eight road games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last six Thursday games as favorites.
• The road team has won the third period in each of the last six games between the Penguins and Lightning.

Total Goals Facts

• Twelve of the Lightning’s last 13 games against the Penguins following a road loss have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Each of the Penguins’ last six road games against Atlantic Division opponents have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last 14 home games against the Penguins.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in 19 of the Penguins’ last 20 night games at Benchmark International Arena.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one point in 41 of his last 45 home appearances against Metropolitan Division opponents.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in eight of the Lightning’s last nine games against the Penguins.
• Anthony Cirelli has scored at least one goal in each of his last four appearances against the Penguins.

Pittsburgh Penguins Player Prop Facts

• Sidney Crosby has scored at least one goal in four of the Penguins’ last five games.
• Sidney Crosby has recorded at least one point in each of his last 11 appearances against the Lightning.
• Rickard Rakell has recorded an assist in each of his last seven Thursday appearances.
• Sidney Crosby has scored the first goal in three of the Penguins’ last four games as underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.

Lightning vs Penguins Prediction 

Tampa Bay had their winning streak snapped last time out against the Islanders, but they will look to bounce back here. The Lightning are 8-5-0 at home this year, while the Penguins are 7-3-3 on the road. Pittsburgh has won three of their last five games and they have scored at least four goals in all three of those victories. On the other side, the Lightning have allowed two goals or fewer in four of their last five and they are playing elite defense right now. Take the under here.