Lightning vs Sabres Prediction 2/28/26 NHL Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Lightning vs Sabres prediction for this NHL game on Saturday, February 28th at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 38-15-4 this season after they lost to Carolina by a score of 5-4 in their last game. Tampa Bay erased a 3-0 deficit and tied the game at four in the second period, but they allowed the only goal in the third for the loss. The Lightning were out shot by a total of 33-28, won 55.4% of the face-offs, and went 1-2 on the power play in the game. Tampa Bay got goals from Hagel, James, Kucherov, and Point, while Johansson stopped 28 out of 33 shots, which was an .848 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Tampa Bay defeated the Maple Leafs by a score of 4-2 and the Panthers by a score of 6-1. The Lightning have won six of their last seven games and they are currently first in the Atlantic standings with 80 points. Tampa Bay has scored 3.56 goals per game and they have allowed 2.54 goals against per game, while also going 22.2% on the power play and 83.1% on the penalty kill this season. Nikita Kucherov has led TB with 31 goals and 64 assists, while Jake Guentzel has added 26 goals and 37 assists. The projected starting goalie for Tampa Bay is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is 28-7-3 with a 2.11 goals against average and a .921 save percentage this season. 

Buffalo Sabres Betting Preview

The Buffalo Sabres are 34-19-6 this year after they defeated Florida by a score of 3-2 in their last game. Buffalo was tied at one after the second period, but they scored twice in the third to get the win. The Sabres out shot Florida by a total of 39-29, won 37.3% of the face-offs, and went 1-3 on the power play in the game. Buffalo got goals from Krebs, Malenstyn, and Tuch, while Lyon stopped 28 out of 29 shots, which was a .966 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Buffalo defeated the Devils by a score of 2-1, but lost to the Penguins by a score of 5-2 before that. The Sabres have won three of their last five games and they are currently second in the Atlantic standings with 74 points. Buffalo has scored 3.34 goals per game and they have allowed 3.05 goals against per game, while also going 19.8% on the power play and 82.7% on the penalty kill this season. Tage Thompson has led Buffalo with 31 goals and 31 assists, while Alex Tuch has added 23 goals and 27 assists. The projected starting goalie for Buffalo is Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who is 12-7-2 with a 2.65 goals against average and a .905 save percentage this year. 

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Lightning have won each of their last 11 home games.
• The Sabres have lost each of their last nine games on the second leg of a back-to-back against the Lightning.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in six of their last seven games at Benchmark International Arena.
• Sabres has failed to cover the puck line in six of its last seven road matches when playing with a rest disadvantage against Lightning.
• The Lightning have won the second period in seven of their last eight games as home favorites.

Why the Buffalo Sabres will win

• The Sabres have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Lightning have lost four of their last five games as home favorites following a road loss.
• The Sabres have covered the puck line in each of their last 13 games as underdogs.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in eight of their last 10 home games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Sabres have won the third period in five of their last six games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.

Total Goals Facts

• Fourteen of the Lightning’s last 16 night games against Atlantic Division opponents at Benchmark International Arena have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Six of the last seven games between teams from the same division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Eleven of the Sabres’ last 13 games on the second leg of a back-to-back have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Sabres’ last eight games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in eight of the last nine games between the Sabres and Lightning at Benchmark International Arena.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in each of the Lightning’s last eight home games.
• Jake Guentzel has scored at least one goal in each of the Lightning’s last four home games against opponents who are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back.

Buffalo Sabres Player Prop Facts

• Peyton Krebs has scored a goal in three of the Sabres’ last four road games.
• Ryan McLeod has recorded at least one assist in each of the Sabres’ last six road games against Atlantic Division opponents.

Lightning vs Sabres Prediction 

Buffalo comes into this matchup on a two game winning streak and they are currently second in the Atlantic standings. The Sabres are 17-11-3 on the road this year, while the Lightning are 19-9-0 at home. Tampa Bay had their winning streak snapped in their last game, but they are still one of the best teams in the NHL. The Lightning have gone over 6.5 goals in four of their last five and they have scored at least four goals in five straight. Take the over in this one.