Lightning vs Senators Prediction 3/28/26 NHL Picks Today

The Ottawa Senators and Tampa Bay Lightning meet Saturday in NHL action at the Benchmark International Arena. Here’s a Lightning vs. Senators Prediction. This article will include a Lightning vs. Senators Pick.

Ottawa Senators Betting Preview

The Ottawa Senators beat the Red Wings, lost to the Penguins, and play the Panthers next. The Senators have won 9 of their last 12 games.

The Ottawa Senators are averaging 3.32 goals per game and are scoring 23.1 percent of their power play opportunities. Tim Stutzle leads Ottawa with 32 goals, Jake Sanderson has 37 assists and Brady Tkachuk has 197 shots on goal. Defensively, the Ottawa Senators are allowing 3.04 goals per game and are killing 74.6 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Linus Ullmark has allowed 115 goals on 1,033 shots faced, while Leevi Merilainen has given up 64 goals on 457 shots.

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Wild, lost to the Kraken, and play the Predators next. The Lightning have won 5 of their last 8 games.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are averaging 3.61 goals per game and are scoring on 23.4 percent of their power-play opportunities. Nikita Kucherov leads Tampa Bay with 40 goals, Darren Raddysh has 45 assists, and Brandon Hagel has 192 shots on goal. Defensively, the Tampa Bay Lightning are allowing 2.77 goals per game and are killing 81.8 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Andrei Vasilevskiy has allowed 115 goals on 1,287 shots faced, while Jonas Johansson has given up 71 goals on 608 shots.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Lightning have won 10 of their last 11 day games.
• The Senators have lost four of their last five games following a shootout win.
• The Senators have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last four day games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in each of their last three day games.
• The Lightning have won the second period in each of their last four home games.

Why the Ottawa Senators will win

• The Senators have won 11 of their last 12 day games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Lightning have lost three of their last four games as favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Senators have covered the puck line in nine of their last 10 games as underdogs against the Lightning.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in nine of their last 12 home games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Senators have won the second period in each of their last six games as road underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents when tied after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Lightning’s last seven home games after coming off overtime has gone OVER the total goals line.
• Ten of the last 11 day games between teams from the same division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Each of the Senators’ last four road games has gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Senators’ last 11 road games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last seven games after coming off overtime.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Brayden Point has scored a goal in seven of his last eight home appearances against the Senators.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in each of the Lightning’s last seven games.
• Nikita Kucherov ranks T1st in the league for Points (121) this season.

Ottawa Senators Player Prop Facts

• Drake Batherson has scored at least one goal in five of the Senators’ last six road games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Tim Stutzle has recorded at least one assist in each of his last eight appearances with the Senators as underdogs against the Lightning.
• Shane Pinto has scored two goals against the Lightning this season—equal to the most against any opponent.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 2nd in the league for goals per game this season (3.61).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of only two teams in the league to rank top 5 for both goals for and goals against per game this season.
• The Ottawa Senators rank 30th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (74.76%).
• The Ottawa Senators rank 32nd in the league in save percentage this season (.879).

Lightning vs Senators Prediction

The Lightning are the better team overall and will get the benefit of the doubt at home, but they’ve been shaky at times lately. The Senators have also won 7 of the last 10 games against the Lightning. This game is also more important for the Senators, who need points to stay in the thick of the playoff race. The Lightning are a lock for postseason play. Early start times do favor the home team, but I’ll take a stab at the Senators and the plus money on Saturday afternoon.