Maple Leafs vs Senators Prediction 3/21/26 NHL Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Maple Leafs vs Senators Prediction for this NHL game on Saturday, March 21^st. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Ottawa Senators Preview

The Senators have 79 points this season with a 35-24-9 record, and are 31-37 ATS and 37-31 in over/under. They have a 17-11-5 home record and a 18-13-4 road record and are sitting 6th in the Atlantic Division. They are coming off a 3-2 home win over the Islanders, and their previous three games were a 4-1 road loss to the Capitals, a 7-4 home win over the Sharks, and a 2-0 home win over the Ducks.

Offensively, the Senators are averaging 3.32 goals per game and are scoring 22.8% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 3.10 goals per game and are killing 74.2% of their opponent’s power plays.

Tim Stutzle leads the Senators with 71 points and 31 goals, adding a team-high 40 assists. Linus Ullmark is the starting goalie for the Senators, and he has a 21-10-7 record, with 2.79 GAA and .886 SV%. James Reimer is the backup goalie and he has a 5-3-1 record, with 2.47 GAA and .884 SV%.

Toronto Maple Leafs Preview

The Maple Leafs have 71 points this season with a 29-28-13 record, and are 30-40 ATS and 38-27 in over/under. They have a 17-12-8 home record and a 12-16-5 road record and are sitting 8th in the Atlantic Division. They are coming off a 4-3 home overtime loss to the Hurricanes, and their previous three games were a 3-1 home loss to the Islanders, a 4-2 road win over the Wild, and a 3-2 road shootout loss to the Sabres.

Offensively, the Maple Leafs are averaging 3.11 goals per game and are scoring 19.2% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 3.44 goals per game and are killing 82.9% of their opponent’s power plays.

William Nylander leads the Maple Leafs with 64 points and 24 goals, adding a team-high 40 assists. Joseph Woll is the starting goalie for the Maple Leafs, and he has a 14-12-6 record, with 3.11 GAA and .905 SV%. Anthony Stolarz is the backup goalie and he has a 8-9-3 record, with 3.34 GAA and .894 SV%.

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Ottawa Senators Betting Trends: March 21, 2026

Why the Ottawa Senators will win

• The Maple Leafs have lost each of their last 13 games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The home team has won each of the Senators’ last four games.
• The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last six games when playing with a rest disadvantage against Senators.
• Senators has covered the puck line in each of its last six home matches when playing with a rest advantage against Maple Leafs.
• The Senators have won the second period in each of their last six games as favorites when trailing after the first period.

Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will win

• The Senators have lost each of their last six games as home favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The underdogs have won four of the Maple Leafs’ last five games at Canadian Tire Centre.
• The underdogs have covered the puck line in 14 of the Maple Leafs’ last 15 games at Canadian Tire Centre.
• The Senators have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last six home games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Senators have lost the second period in each of their last four home games against Atlantic Division opponents when leading after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the last six games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Each of the Senators’ last five home games against Eastern Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Five of the Maple Leafs’ last six road games against Atlantic Division opponents have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Senators’ last eight Saturday night games.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last eight games after coming off overtime.

Ottawa Senators Player Prop Facts

• Brady Tkachuk has scored a goal in five of the Senators’ last six night games at Canadian Tire Centre.
• Jake Sanderson has recorded at least one assist in each of his last seven home appearances against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Dylan Cozens has scored two goals against the Maple Leafs this season – equal-most against any opponent.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

• William Nylander has scored at least one goal in each of the Maple Leafs’ last three games against the Senators.
• William Nylander has recorded at least one assist in each of the Maple Leafs’ last five games as road underdogs against the Senators.
• Matthew Knies has scored two goals against the Senators this season – equal-most against any opponent.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Ottawa Senators rank 30th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (74.24%).
• The Ottawa Senators rank 1st in the league for shots against per game this season (24.2).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 30th in the league for goals against per game this season (3.44).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 5th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (82.89%).

Maple Leafs vs Senators Prediction

Both teams are tied 1-1 in their two meetings this season with both games having taken place in Toronto. The Leafs won by 7-5 and the Senators by 5-2 and both teams are tied 5-5 in their last 10 meetings.

In this Maple Leafs vs Senators Prediction, the Senators are coming as -260 home favorites. I’m on the Senators in this one, as they have been the better team this season and are up against a Leafs squad that has been far weaker on the road and are on their second leg of a back-to-back. The Sens are also in far better form with a 6-3 record in their last 9 games, while the Leafs are 2-8 in their last 10. Take the Senators for an easy victory by more than 2 goals in this one.