Maple Leafs vs Senators Prediction 4/29/25 NHL Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Maple Leafs vs Senators prediction for this NHL game on Tuesday, April 29th at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup in the 1st round of the playoffs.

Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs are up 3-1 in the series after they lost game four by a score of 4-3 in overtime. Toronto was able to erase a 2-0 and a 3-2 deficit in the game, but they allowed a goal late in overtime for the loss. The Maple Leafs recorded 34 shots on goal, won 57.4% of the face-offs, and went 0-4 on the power play in the game. Toronto got goals from Knies, Tavares, and Ekman-Larsson, while Stolarz stopped 17 out of 21 shots in the loss. 

Prior to that game, the Maple Leafs won the first three games in the series by scores of 6-2, 3-2, and 3-2. Toronto has won eight of their last nine games and they finished first in the Atlantic standings with 108 points. Toronto has scored 3.26 goals per game and they have allowed 2.79 goals against per game, while also going 24.8% on the power play and 77.9% on the penalty kill this season. Mitch Marner has led Toronto with one goal, six assists, and four shots on goal, while William Nylander has added one goal, five assists, and 12 shots on goal. Anthony Stolarz is 3-1-0 with a 2.29 goals against average and a .902 save percentage in the series. 

Ottawa Senators Betting Preview

The Ottawa Senators are facing elimination in this game, but they did win game four by a score of 4-3 in overtime. Ottawa was unable to hold a 2-0 lead in the first and a 3-2 lead in the third, but they did get the win in overtime. The Senators recorded 21 shots on goal, won 42.6% of the face-offs, and went 1-2 on the power play in the game. Ottawa got goals from Perron, Pinto, Stutzle, and Sanderson, while Ullmark stopped 31 out of 34 shots in the game. 

Prior to this series, the Senators defeated the Hurricanes by a score of 7-5, but did lose to the Blackhawks by a score of 4-3 before that. Ottawa has lost four of their last six games and they finished fourth in the Atlantic standings with 97 points. Ottawa has scored 2.95 goals per game and they have allowed 2.83 goals against per game, while also going 23.7% on the power play and 77.7% on the penalty kill this season. Brady Tkachuk, Jake Sanderson, and Claude Giroux have led the Senators with three points each in the series. Linus Ullmark is 1-3-0 with a 3.44 goals against average and an .848 save percentage in the postseason. 

Why the Maple Leafs will beat the Senators

• The Maple Leafs have won each of their last nine games at Scotiabank Arena.
• The Senators have lost each of their last five road games following a win.
• The Senators have failed to cover the puck line in seven of their last eight night games following a win.
• The Maple Leafs have covered the puck line in each of their last four games against Eastern Conference opponents after coming off overtime.
• The Senators have lost the second period in each of their last four games as road underdogs when leading after the first period.

Why the Senators will beat the Maple Leafs

• The Senators have won five of their last seven games as underdogs against the Maple Leafs.
• The underdogs have covered the puck line in 10 of the last 11 games between the Senators and Maple Leafs.
• The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in five of their last six home games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Senators have won the second period in eight of their last nine games as road underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents when tied after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Senators’ last four games following a win have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Five of the last six games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Five of the Maple Leafs’ last six home games after coming off overtime have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in eight of the Senators’ last nine night games.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in four of the Maple Leafs’ last five games.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

• Auston Matthews has scored a goal in four of his five previous appearances in Game 5s of an Eastern Conference First Round series.
• Mitch Marner has recorded at least one assist in eight of the Maple Leafs’ last nine home games.
• Max Pacioretty has recorded a point in each of his last seven home appearances against the Senators.
• William Nylander ranks T1st in the league for multi-goal games (10) this season.

Ottawa Senators Player Prop Facts

• Tim Stutzle has recorded at least one assist in eight of the Senators’ last nine games as road underdogs.
• Tim Stutzle has recorded at least one point in eight of the Senators’ last nine games as road underdogs.
• Jake Sanderson has scored two goals against the Maple Leafs this season – most against any opponent.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank T7th in the league for goals per game this season (3.26).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of seven teams to rank in the top 10 for both goals scored and goals conceded per game this season.
• The Ottawa Senators rank T1st in the league for power play goals this season (64).
• The Ottawa Senators rank T1st in the league in short handed goals allowed this season (3).

Maple Leafs vs Senators Prediction 

Toronto was unable to finish the series in game four, but they will return home and try again in this one. The Maple Leafs are 29-13-1 at home this year, while the Senators are just 18-20-5 on the road. Ottawa has played pretty well in this series and with three games going to overtime, I feel like this game could go either way. We finally saw some offense in game four of this series and I think we will see some more here. I think Ottawa has to be aggressive early, which should open up opportunities for both sides. Take the over.