Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres Prediction 5/10/26 NHL Picks Today

The Buffalo Sabres and the Montreal Canadiens meet Sunday in NHL action from the Bell Centre. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Buffalo Sabres vs. Montreal Canadiens prediction.

Buffalo Sabres Recap

The Buffalo Sabres come into this game looking to bounce back from a 5-1 loss at the hands of the Canadiens in game two, evening up the series at one win apiece.

Sabres Looking To Restore Home Ice

Tage Thompson leads the Sabres in scoring with 81 points coming on a team-high 40 goals and 41 assists while Alex Tuch has 66 points with 33 goals and 33 assists and Rasmus Dahlin has 74 points with a team-high 55 assists. Josh Doan has 52 points with 25 goals and 27 assists and Ryan McLeod has 54 points with 14 goals and 40 assists. Bowen Byram has 42 points with 11 goals and 31 assists while Jack Quinn’s added 51 points with 20 goals and 31 assists this season. Alex Lyon has gone 20-10-4 with a 2.77 GAA and a .907 save percentage in goal for Buffalo while Colten Ellis is 8-4-2 with a 2.90 GAA and a .903 save percentage so far this season. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has gone 22-9-3 with a 2.52 GAA and a .910 save percentage up to this point in the year.

Montreal Canadiens Recap

The Montreal Canadiens will be out to add on to their win over the Sabres from game two to tie the series up at one.

Canadiens Looking For First Series Lead

Nick Suzuki leads Montreal with 101 points including 29 goals and 72 assists while Cole Caufield has 88 points with a team-high 51 goals and 37 assists. Lane Hutson has 78 points with 66 assists while Ivan Demidov has 62 points with 19 goals and 43 assists. Noah Dobson has 47 points with 35 assists and Mike Matheson has 37 points with 7 goals and 30 assists. Oliver Kapanen has 37 points with 22 goals and 15 assists while Zack Bolduc has 30 points with 12 goals and 18 assists. Juraj Slafkovsky also has 73 points with 30 goals and 43 assists. Sam Montembault has gone 10-8-4 with a 3.43 GAA and an .872 save percentage in goal for the Canadiens while Jakub Dobes is 29-10-4 with a 2.78 GAA and a .901 save percentage. Jacob Fowler is also 8-6-2 with a 2.52 GAA and an .904 save percentage for the Habs this season.

Buffalo Sabres @ Montreal Canadiens Betting Trends: May 10, 2026

Why the Montreal Canadiens will win

• The Canadiens have won four of their last five Game 3s of a playoff series.
• The Sabres have lost five of their last six night games at Bell Centre following a home loss.
• The Canadiens have covered the puck line in nine of their last 10 games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Canadiens have won the third period in each of their last four games as home favorites against Eastern Conference opponents when leading after the second period.

Why the Buffalo Sabres will win

• The Sabres have won eight of their last nine games as underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Canadiens have lost each of their last five games following a road win.
• The Sabres have covered the puck line in 21 of their last 22 games as underdogs.
• The Canadiens have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last seven games as favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Sabres have won the third period in each of their last six road games when leading after the second period.

Total Goals Facts

• Eight of the Canadiens’ last nine home games against Atlantic Division opponents have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Five of the Sabres’ last six road games following a home loss have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Eight of the last 10 night games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Sabres’ last 10 road games.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in four of the last five games between the Sabres and Canadiens.

Montreal Canadiens Player Prop Facts

• Nick Suzuki has scored a goal in four of the Canadiens’ last five games against the Sabres.
• Nick Suzuki has recorded at least one assist in each of the Canadiens’ last five games as favorites against the Sabres.
• Cole Caufield ranks 1st in the league for Game Winning Goals (12) this season.

Buffalo Sabres Player Prop Facts

• Bowen Byram has recorded at least one assist in each of the Sabres’ last seven games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Alex Tuch has scored a goal in each of the Sabres’ last five road games.
• Josh Doan has recorded three assists against the Canadiens this season – equal-most against any opponent.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Montreal Canadiens rank 7th in the league for goals per game this season (3.40).
• The Montreal Canadiens are one of only three teams with two or more players to record at least 60 assists this season (Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson).
• The Buffalo Sabres rank 4th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (81.90%).
• The Buffalo Sabres rank 5th in the league for goals per game this season (3.45).

Buffalo Sabres vs. Montreal Canadiens Prediction

I’m going to take a shot on Montreal in this one. We’ve yet to see Montreal win back-to-back games in the postseason and normally I like backing Montreal off of a loss. However, the Canadiens found something in game two and I think they’ll ride that going forward into this game. Buffalo just looked shell shocked after game two, and I think that this is Montreal’s time to strike for their first lead of this series. Give me the Habs.