Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction 4/24/26 NHL Picks Today

The Tampa Bay Lightning and the Montreal Canadiens meet Friday in NHL action from the Benchmark International Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens prediction.

Tampa Bay Lightning Recap

The Tampa Bay Lightning come into this game looking to add on to their win over Montreal last time out by a final score of 3-2 in OT.

Lightning Even Up Series

Nikita Kucherov leads the Lightning in scoring with 130 points including 44 goals and 86 assists while Brandon Hagel has 74 points with 36 goals and 38 assists and Jake Guentzel has 88 points with 38 goals and 50 assists. Anthony Cirelli has 52 points with 23 goals and 29 assists. Darren Raddysh has also added 70 points with 22 goals and 48 assists as well on the year. Andrei Vasilevskiy has gone 39-15-4 with a 2.31 GAA and a .912 save percentage while Jonas Johansson is 11-10-2 with a 3.29 GAA and an .884 save percentage this season.

Montreal Canadiens Recap

The Montreal Canadiens come into this one looking to shake off their loss at the hands of the Lightning in game two last time out.

Canadiens Looking To Maintain Home Ice

Nick Suzuki leads Montreal with 101 points including 29 goals and 72 assists while Cole Caufield has 88 points with a team-high 51 goals and 37 assists. Lane Hutson has 78 points with 66 assists while Ivan Demidov has 62 points with 19 goals and 43 assists. Noah Dobson has 47 points with 35 assists and Mike Matheson has 37 points with 7 goals and 30 assists. Oliver Kapanen has 37 points with 22 goals and 15 assists while Zack Bolduc has 30 points with 12 goals and 18 assists. Juraj Slafkovsky also has 73 points with 30 goals and 43 assists. Sam Montembault has gone 10-8-4 with a 3.43 GAA and an .872 save percentage in goal for the Canadiens while Jakub Dobes is 29-10-4 with a 2.78 GAA and a .901 save percentage. Jacob Fowler is also 8-6-2 with a 2.52 GAA and an .904 save percentage for the Habs this season.

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Montreal Canadiens Betting Trends: April 24, 2026

Why the Montreal Canadiens will win

• The Canadiens have won each of their last six games as home underdogs.
• The Lightning have lost three of their last four games as road favorites.
• The Canadiens have covered the puck line in each of their last 27 games as underdogs.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last eight games.
• The Canadiens have won the second period in each of their last eight games as underdogs when trailing after the first period.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Lightning have won each of their last eight games against the Canadiens after coming off overtime.
• The Canadiens have lost three of their last four games after coming off overtime.
• The road team has covered the puck line in each of the Lightning’s last four games.
• The Canadiens have failed to cover the puck line in four of their last five home games.
• The Lightning have won the third period in each of their last five games after coming off overtime.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Lightning’s last five games as favorites following a home win have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Each of the Canadiens’ last four games after coming off overtime have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Three of the last four games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in nine of the Lightning’s last 10 games after coming off overtime.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in 12 of the Canadiens’ last 13 games as home underdogs.

Montreal Canadiens Player Prop Facts

• Juraj Slafkovsky has scored a goal in six of the Canadiens’ last seven games as home underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Nick Suzuki has recorded at least one assist in 10 of the Canadiens’ last 11 games as underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Cole Caufield ranks 1st in the league for Game Winning Goals (12) this season.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Hagel has scored a goal in each of his last four road appearances against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in 15 of his last 16 appearances in Game 3s of a playoff series.
• Nikita Kucherov ranks T1st in the league for multi-assist games (25) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Montreal Canadiens rank 7th in the league for goals per game this season (3.40).
• The Montreal Canadiens are one of only three teams with two or more players to record at least 60 assists this season (Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 3rd in the league for goals against per game this season (2.79).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 3rd in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (82.56%).

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens Prediction

I’m on the Canadiens in this one. This is a big spot for the Habs to not only defend home ice, but to also have their home playoff debut for this season and the Canadiens are known for having one of the more raucous and reliable fan bases in the NHL. I think the Habs get fueled by the home ice edge here and get the job done in this one so give me Montreal.