Penguins vs Stars Prediction 3/28/26 NHL Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Penguins vs Stars prediction for this NHL game on Saturday, March 28th at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Pittsburgh Penguins Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Penguins are 36-20-16 this season after they defeated the Senators in a shootout by a score of 4-3 in their last game. Pittsburgh led 3-2 in the third period, but they allowed the tying goal just two minutes after taking the lead, before getting the win in the shootout. The Penguins out shot Ottawa by a total of 40-29, won 30.8% of the face-offs, and went 1-2 on the power play in the game. Pittsburgh got goals from Rakell (2) and Karlsson, while Skinner stopped 26 out of 29 shots, which was an .897 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Pittsburgh lost to the Avalanche by a score of 6-2 and the Hurricanes by a score of 5-1. The Penguins have lost three of their last five games and they are currently second in the Metro standings with 88 points. Pittsburgh has scored 3.39 goals per game and they have allowed 3.03 goals against per game, while also going 24.4% on the power play and 82.6% on the penalty kill this season. Bryan Rust has led Pittsburgh with 26 goals and 33 assists, while Anthony Mantha has added 26 goals and 27 assists. The projected starting goalie for Pittsburgh is Stuart Skinner, who is 10-6-5 with a 2.93 goals against average and an .887 save percentage this season. 

Dallas Stars Betting Preview

The Dallas Stars are 43-18-11 this year after they lost to the Islanders by a score of 2-1 in their last game. Dallas had trouble scoring all night, but they finally got on the board late in the third in the low scoring loss. The Stars out shot New York by a total of 27-25, won 42.1% of the face-offs, and went 0-2 on the power play in the game. Dallas got their lone goal from Duchene, while Oettinger stopped 23 out of 25 shots, which was a .920 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Dallas lost to the Devils by a score of 6-4 and the Golden Knights by a score of 3-2. The Stars have lost four games in a row and they are currently second in the Central standings with 97 points. Dallas has scored 3.33 goals per game and they have allowed 2.69 goals against per game, while also going 28.8% on the power play and 81.2% on the penalty kill this season. Jason Robertson has led Dallas with 39 goals and 46 assists, while Wyatt Johnston has added 40 goals and 38 assists. The projected starting goalie for Dallas is Jake Oettinger, who is 29-11-6 with a 2.62 goals against average and a .901 save percentage this year. 

Why the Pittsburgh Penguins will win

• The Penguins have won each of their last seven games as home underdogs following a road win.
• The Stars have lost each of their last five games as favorites.
• The Penguins have covered the puck line in each of their last 10 night games following a road win.
• The Stars have failed to cover the puck line in 14 of their last 15 games as favorites against Metropolitan Division opponents.
• The Penguins have won the second period in eight of their last nine games against Western Conference opponents when tied after the first period.

Why the Dallas Stars will win

• The Penguins have lost each of their last five games following a shootout win.
• The Stars have won five of their last six games against the Penguins.
• The Penguins have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last 10 Saturday home games.
• The road team has covered the puck line in each of the Penguins’ last seven games.
• The Penguins have lost the second period in each of their last six night games at PPG Paints Arena when trailing after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Penguins’ last eight night games have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Each of the Stars’ last four road games following a road loss have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Penguins’ last seven games against Central Division opponents.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Stars’ last three games following a road loss.

Pittsburgh Penguins Player Prop Facts

• Evgeni Malkin has recorded an assist in each of his last five appearances with the Penguins as underdogs against Central Division opponents.
• Tommy Novak has scored a goal in each of his last five appearances against the Stars.

Dallas Stars Player Prop Facts

• Mikko Rantanen has scored a goal in three of his last four road appearances against Metropolitan Division opponents.
• Mikko Rantanen has recorded an assist in each of his last five appearances.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pittsburgh Penguins rank 3rd in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (82.63%).
• The Pittsburgh Penguins rank 7th in the league for goals per game this season (3.39).
• The Dallas Stars rank 2nd in the league for goals against per game this season (2.69).
• The Dallas Stars rank 2nd in the league in power play percentage this season (28.77%).

Penguins vs Stars Prediction 

Dallas comes into this matchup on a four game losing streak and they continue to really struggle over the last few weeks. The Stars are 21-8-7 on the road this year, while the Penguins are 17-11-8 at home. Pittsburgh has lost two of their last three games and Crosby is questionable for this one. Both teams are currently in the playoffs, but Dallas has scored two goals or fewer in four of their last five games. The Stars are the better team overall, but we need to see them play better. Take the Penguins at home.