Red Wings vs Lightning Prediction 11/28/25 NHL Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Red Wings vs Lightning prediction for this NHL game on Friday, November 28th at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Detroit Red Wings Betting Preview

The Detroit Red Wings are 13-10-1 this season after they lost to Nashville by a score of 6-3 in their last game. Detroit led 2-1 after the second period, but they allowed five goals in the third for the epic collapse. The Red Wings out shot Nashville by a total of 31-29, won 52.1% of the face-offs, and went 2-4 on the power play in the game. Detroit got goals from DeBrincat, van Riemsdyk, and Chiarot, while Talbot stopped 23 out of 28 shots, which was an .821 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Detroit lost to the Devils by a score of 4-3, but did beat the Blue Jackets by a score of 4-3 before that. The Red Wings have lost three of their last four games and they are currently fifth in the Atlantic standings with 27 points. Detroit has scored 2.92 goals per game and they have allowed 3.33 goals against per game, while also going 22.8% on the power play and 80.9% on the penalty kill this season. Dylan Larkin has led Detroit with 13 goals and 13 assists, while Alex DeBrincat has added 12 goals and 14 assists. The projected starting goalie for Detroit is Cam Talbot, who is 9-4-0 with a 2.97 goals against average and an .887 save percentage this season. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 14-7-2 this year after they defeated Calgary by a score of 5-1 in their last game. Tampa Bay scored four goals in the first period and they were able to coast to an easy win. The Lightning were out shot by a total of 33-23, won 54.9% of the face-offs, and went 0-4 on the power play in the game. Tampa Bay got goals from Girgensons, Hagel, Kucherov, Carlile, and D’Astous, while Vasilevskiy stopped 32 out of 33 shots, which was a .970 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Tampa Bay defeated the Flyers by a score of 3-0 and the Capitals by a score of 5-3. The Lightning have won five games in a row and they are currently first in the Atlantic standings with 30 points. Tampa Bay has scored 3.22 goals per game and they have allowed 2.65 goals against per game, while also going 16.2% on the power play and 88.3% on the penalty kill this season. Nikita Kucherov has led TB with 11 goals and 16 assists, while Brandon Hagel has added 12 goals and 12 assists. The projected starting goalie for Tampa Bay is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is 10-5-2 with a 2.28 goals against average and a .918 save percentage this year. 

Why the Detroit Red Wings will win

• The Red Wings have won each of their last seven games as home underdogs.
• The Lightning have lost four of their last five games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Red Wings have covered the puck line in each of their last 14 home games against the Lightning following a loss.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in 14 of their last 16 games at Little Caesars Arena.
• The Lightning have lost the second period in each of their last six road games against Eastern Conference opponents when leading after the first period.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Lightning have won each of their last five games.
• The Red Wings have lost each of their last four day games against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in each of their last seven road games.
• The Red Wings have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last four home games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Red Wings have lost the first period in each of their last five games.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Red Wings’ last four games as home underdogs following a loss have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Five of the Lightning’s last six games as favorites against opponents on a losing streak have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Ten of the last 13 games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Red Wings’ last eight games.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last five day games.

Detroit Red Wings Player Prop Facts

• Alex DeBrincat has scored a goal in five of the Red Wings’ last six games as underdogs.
• Dylan Larkin has recorded at least one assist in each of the Red Wings’ last four games as home underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Lucas Raymond has recorded at least one point in each of the Red Wings’ last 11 day games.
• Alex DeBrincat ranks T2nd in the league for Power Play Goals (7) this season.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Hagel has scored at least one goal in four of his last five appearances in road games.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in each of the Lightning’s last five games.
• Jake Guentzel has recorded two or more points in each of the Lightning’s last five day games.
• Anthony Cirelli ranks 1st amongst qualified players for shooting percentage (30.0%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Detroit Red Wings rank 25th in the league for goals against per game this season (3.33).
• The Detroit Red Wings have recorded the equal-most wins when tied or trailing after Period 1 this season (10).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 1st in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (88.31%).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of four teams to rank in the top 10 for both goals scored and goals conceded per game this season.

Red Wings vs Lightning Prediction 

Tampa Bay rolls into this matchup looking to extend their five game winning streak and they have allowed one goal or fewer in four of those five wins. The Lightning are 6-2-2 on the road this year, while the Red Wings are 8-5-1 at home. Detroit has lost three of their last four and they have allowed at least four goals in all three losses. These teams are trending in opposite directions, but I am going to side with the over, as the Detroit defense is in shambles right now.