Sabres vs Canadiens Prediction 5/6/26 NHL Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Sabres vs Canadiens prediction for this NHL game on Wednesday, May 6th at the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL playoff matchup.

Buffalo Sabres Betting Preview

The Buffalo Sabres are coming off of a series win over the Bruins in six games by scores of 4-3, 2-4, 3-1, 6-1, 1-2, and 4-1. In game six, Buffalo had their lead cut to 2-1 in the second period, but they scored twice in the third to put the game away. The Sabres recorded 26 shots on goal, won 44.1% of the face-offs, and went 0-4 on the power play in the game. Buffalo got goals from Benson, Norris, Tuch, and Samuelsson, while Lyon stopped 25 out of 26 shots, which was a .962 save percentage. 

Prior to that series, Buffalo lost to the Stars by a score of 4-3, but did beat the Blackhawks by a score of 5-1 before that. The Sabres have won eight of their last 11 games and they finished first in the Atlantic standings with 109 points. Buffalo scored 3.45 goals per game and they allowed 2.93 goals against per game, while also going 19.5% on the power play and 81.9% on the penalty kill this season. Tage Thompson has led the Sabres with two goals and five assists, while Alex Tuch has added four goals and three assists in the playoffs. The projected starting goalie for Buffalo is Alex Lyon, who is 3-1 with a 1.14 goals against average and a .955 save percentage this season. 

Montreal Canadiens Betting Preview

The Montreal Canadiens are coming off of a series win over the Lightning in seven games by scores of 4-3, 2-3, 3-2, 2-3, 3-2, 0-1, and 2-1. In game seven, Montreal allowed the tying goal in the second period, but they scored with nine minutes left in the third and hung on for the win. The Canadiens recorded nine shots on goal, won 53.3% of the face-offs, and went 0-2 on the power play in the game. Montreal got goals from Newhook and Suzuki, while Dobes stopped 28 out of 29 shots, which was a .966 save percentage. 

Prior to that series, Montreal lost to the Flyers by a score of 4-2, but did beat the Islanders by a score of 4-1 before that. The Canadiens have alternated wins and losses over their last 11 games and they finished third in the Atlantic standings with 106 points. Montreal scored 3.40 goals per game and they allowed 3.06 goals against per game, while also going 23.1% on the power play and 78.2% on the penalty kill this season. Nick Suzuki has led the Canadiens with one goal and five assists, while Lane Hutson has added two goals and four assists in the playoffs. The projected starting goalie for Montreal is Jakub Dobes, who is 4-3 with a 2.03 goals against average and a .923 save percentage this season. 

Why the Buffalo Sabres will win

• The Canadiens have lost each of their last four games following a road win.
• The Sabres have won eight of their last 10 games when playing with a rest advantage.
• The Sabres have covered the puck line in 13 of their last 16 night games at KeyBank Center following a road win.
• The Canadiens have failed to cover the puck line in three of their last four games when playing with a rest disadvantage against Sabres.
• The Sabres have won the third period in each of their last eight games when leading after the second period.

Why the Montreal Canadiens will win

• The underdogs have won each of the Canadiens’ last 10 games at KeyBank Center.
• The Sabres have lost four of their last five games as home favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Canadiens have covered the puck line in each of their last 32 games as underdogs.
• The Sabres have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last 10 games as home favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Canadiens have won the second period in each of their last eight games as underdogs when trailing after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Canadiens’ last six games have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Each of the last six games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Seven of the Sabres’ last eight games as favorites following a road win have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Sabres’ last seven games as favorites against the Canadiens.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Canadiens’ last five road games against the Sabres.

Buffalo Sabres Player Prop Facts

• Alex Tuch has scored a goal in six of the Sabres’ last eight games.
• Rasmus Dahlin has recorded an assist in each of his last five appearances with the Sabres as favorites against the Canadiens.
• Ryan McLeod has recorded three hits against the Canadiens this season – most against any opponent.

Montreal Canadiens Player Prop Facts

• Cole Caufield has scored at least one goal in each of the Canadiens’ last four road games against the Sabres.
• Nick Suzuki has recorded at least one assist in each of the Canadiens’ last eight games against the Sabres.
• Cole Caufield ranks 1st in the league for Game Winning Goals (12) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Buffalo Sabres rank 4th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (81.90%).
• The Buffalo Sabres rank 5th in the league for goals per game this season (3.45).
• The Montreal Canadiens rank 7th in the league for goals per game this season (3.40).
• The Montreal Canadiens are one of only three teams with two or more players to record at least 60 assists this season (Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson).

Sabres vs Canadiens Prediction 

Montreal was able to escape the first round in seven games, but every game was extremely close in that series. The Canadiens were 24-9-8 on the road this year, while the Sabres were 26-10-5 at home. Buffalo won three of their last four games against the Bruins and they have allowed two goals or fewer in four straight. This should be another great series, but I think Buffalo will start off with a win, especially as Montreal recovers from that seven game battle. Take the Sabres here.