Senators vs Maple Leafs Prediction 5/1/25 NHL Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Senators vs Maple Leafs prediction for this NHL game on Thursday, May 1st at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup in the 1st round of the playoffs.

Ottawa Senators Betting Preview

The Ottawa Senators were able to avoid elimination once again with a 4-0 win in game five of this series. Ottawa led 1-0 after two periods and they added three in the third for the shutout win. The Senators recorded 19 shots on goal, won 47.8% of the face-offs, and went 0-2 on the power play in the game. Ottawa got goals from Cozens, Stutzle, Tkachuk, and Chabot, while Ullmark stopped all 29 shots in the win. 

Prior to that game, the Senators lost the first three games in the series, but did win game four by a score of 4-3. Ottawa has won five of their last nine games and they finished fourth in the Atlantic standings with 97 points. Ottawa has scored 2.95 goals per game and they have allowed 2.83 goals against per game, while also going 23.7% on the power play and 77.7% on the penalty kill this season. Brady Tkachuk has led Ottawa with three goals, three assists, and 20 shots on goal, while Tim Stutzle has added two goals, three assists, and 11 shots on goal. Linus Ullmark is 2-3 with a 2.80 goals against average and an .883 save percentage this series. 

Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs have watched their series lead go from 3-0 to 3-2, but they will try to eliminate Ottawa for the third time here. In their game five loss, Toronto couldn’t find the back of the net and the game got away from them late in the third. The Maple Leafs recorded 29 shots on goal, won 52.2% of the face-offs, and went 0-3 on the power play in the game. Toronto was led by Knies, who had six shots on goal, while Stolarz stopped 15 out of 17 shots in the game. 

Prior to this series, the Maple Leafs defeated the Red Wings by a score of 4-3 and the Sabres by a score of 4-0. Toronto has won eight of their last ten games and they finished first in the Atlantic standings with 108 points. Toronto has scored 3.26 goals per game and they have allowed 2.79 goals against per game, while also going 24.8% on the power play and 77.9% on the penalty kill this season. Mitch Marner has led Toronto with one goal, six assists, and six shots on goal, while Matthews and Nylander both have six points in the series. Anthony Stolarz is 3-2 with a 2.25 goals against average and an .899 save percentage this postseason. 

Why the Maple Leafs will beat the Senators

• The Maple Leafs have won six of their last eight games as underdogs.
• The Senators have lost 16 of their last 28 games as favorites against opponents on a losing streak.
• The underdogs have covered the puck line in 13 of the Maple Leafs’ last 14 games at Canadian Tire Centre.
• The Senators have failed to cover the puck line in nine of their last 10 games as favorites following a road win.
• The Maple Leafs have won the third period in each of their last four games as underdogs when trailing after the second period.

Total Goals Facts

• Six of the Maple Leafs’ last seven games as underdogs following a loss have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Five of the Senators’ last six home games have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Six of the last eight games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last eight games as road underdogs against opponents on a winning streak.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in seven of the Senators’ last eight games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.

Ottawa Senators Player Prop Facts

• Claude Giroux has scored a goal in four of his last five appearances with his team as a favorite against the Maple Leafs.
• Jake Sanderson has recorded at least one assist in each of his last five appearances in night games at Canadian Tire Centre.
• Jake Sanderson has recorded at least one point in each of his last nine appearances in night games at Canadian Tire Centre.
• Jake Sanderson has scored two goals against the Maple Leafs this season – most against any opponent.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

• Auston Matthews has scored a goal in four of his five previous appearances in Game 6s of an Eastern Conference First Round series.
• John Tavares has recorded at least one point in 12 of the Maple Leafs’ last 13 games as underdogs.
• Mitch Marner has recorded at least one assist in each of the Maple Leafs’ last four games as underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
• William Nylander ranks T1st in the league for multi-goal games (10) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Ottawa Senators rank T1st in the league for power play goals this season (64).
• The Ottawa Senators rank T1st in the league in short handed goals allowed this season (3).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank T7th in the league for goals per game this season (3.26).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of seven teams to rank in the top 10 for both goals scored and goals conceded per game this season.

Senators vs Maple Leafs Prediction 

Ottawa comes into this matchup full of confidence after winning two games in a row and they will be at home, where they were 27-11-3 during the regular season. Toronto has to feel the pressure of this series possibly slipping away, but they have been very solid on the road this season. We have seen three of the five games in this series go to overtime, so clearly these teams are very evenly matched, but I like Toronto here. We are getting a great price with a Toronto team that was elite during the regular season and I think we are going to see a great response after an embarrassing effort last time out. Take the Leafs to win here.