Stars vs Avalanche Prediction 5/3/25 NHL Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Stars vs Avalanche prediction for this NHL game on Saturday, May 3rd at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup in the 1st round of the playoffs.

Dallas Stars Betting Preview

The Dallas Stars are tied 3-3 in this series after they lost 7-4 in game six on Thursday. Dallas led 4-3 after two periods, but they allowed four goals in the third for the loss. The Stars recorded 26 shots on goal, won 50% of the face-offs, and went 1-1 on the power play in the game. Dallas got goals from Granlund, Hintz (2), and Rantanen, while Oettinger stopped 41 out of 46 shots in the loss. 

Prior to that game, the Stars won games two, three, and five, but did lose games one and four. Dallas has lost 10 of their last 13 games and they finished second in the Central standings with 106 points. Dallas has scored 3.35 goals per game and they have allowed 2.71 goals against per game, while also going 22% on the power play and 82% on the penalty kill this season. Mikko Rantanen has led Dallas with two goals, six assists, and 20 shots on goal, while Roope Hintz has added four goals, three assists, and 23 shots on goal in this series. Jake Oettinger is 3-3 with a 2.99 goals against average and a .909 save percentage this postseason. 

Colorado Avalanche Betting Preview

The Colorado Avalanche were able to avoid elimination with a big 7-4 win in game six of this series at home in their last game. Colorado led 2-0 after the first period, but they trailed 4-3 after the second, before scoring four in the third to stay alive in the series. The Avalanche recorded 48 shots on goal, won 50% of the face-offs, and went 0-2 on the power play in the game. Colorado got goals from Lehkonen, MacKinnon, Necas, Nichushkin (2), Makar, and Manson, while Blackwood stopped 22 out of 26 shots in the win. 

Prior to this series, the Avalanche defeated the Ducks by a score of 4-2, but did lose to the Kings and Canucks before that. Colorado has split their last 10 games and they are currently third in the Central standings with 102 points. Colorado has scored 3.33 goals per game and they have allowed 2.82 goals against per game, while also going 24.8% on the power play and 79.8% on the penalty kill this season. Nathan MacKinnon has led Colorado with six goals, four assists, and 33 shots on goal, while Necas, O’Connor, and Makar have all added five points in the series. Mackenzie Blackwood is 3-3 with a 2.65 goals against average and an .899 save percentage this postseason. 

Why the Stars will beat the Avalanche

• The Avalanche have lost each of their last five games as road favorites following a home win.
• The underdogs have won six of the Stars’ last seven games at American Airlines Center.
• The Avalanche have failed to cover the puck line in eight of their last nine road games against Central Division opponents.
• The Stars have covered the puck line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs following a road loss.
• The underdogs have won the third period in eight of the Avalanche’s last nine games at American Airlines Center.

Why the Avalanche will beat the Stars

• The Stars have lost 10 of their last 13 games.
• The Stars have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last six Saturday games at American Airlines Center.
• The Stars have lost the second period in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against Western Conference opponents when tied after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the last six games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Nine of the last 10 games between the Avalanche and Stars at American Airlines Center have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Eight of the Avalanche’s last nine night games at American Airlines Center have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2’ market has hit in each of the Avalanche’s last 10 games at American Airlines Center.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in 10 of the Stars’ last 12 games as underdogs against Western Conference opponents.

Dallas Stars Player Prop Facts

• Mikko Rantanen has scored a goal in four of his last five appearances in playoff games when facing elimination.
• Mikko Rantanen has recorded at least one point in each of his last nine appearances in playoff games when facing elimination.
• Jason Robertson has recorded at least one assist in eight of his last nine playoff appearances against Central Division opponents.
• Thomas Harley has scored two goals against the Avalanche this season – equal-most against any opponent.

Colorado Avalanche Player Prop Facts

• Nathan MacKinnon has scored at least one goal in each of his last five appearances in road games.
• Artturi Lehkonen has recorded at least one point in each of the Avalanche’s last seven playoff games as road favorites.
• Nathan MacKinnon has recorded at least one assist in each of the Avalanche’s last four playoff series closeout games.
• Nathan MacKinnon ranks T1st in the league for Assists (84) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Dallas Stars rank T3rd in the league for goals per game this season (3.35).
• The Dallas Stars rank 4th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (82.02%).
• The Colorado Avalanche rank 6th in the league for goals per game this season (3.33).
• The Colorado Avalanche rank 8th in the league in power play percentage this season (24.79%).

Stars vs Avalanche Prediction 

Colorado was able to bounce back from a sluggish second period in game six to get a huge win to force game seven here. The Avalanche have outscored Dallas 11-4 in their last two home games, but they will be on the road for this contest, where they lost 6-2 in game five. Dallas is missing some key pieces due to injury, but they have played very well in this series and nearly ended it in six games. We have seen 11 and 8 goals scored in the last two games of this series and I think we can get up and over 5.5 goals here. I know game seven’s are historically lower scoring, but the goalies have been inconsistent in this series and Colorado has generated a ton of shots on goal. Take the over here.