Stars vs Lightning Prediction 3/20/25 NHL Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Stars vs Lightning prediction for this NHL game on Thursday, March 20th at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup. 

Dallas Stars Betting Preview

The Dallas Stars are 43-21-3 this year after they defeated Anaheim in overtime by a score of 4-3 in their last game. Dallas trailed 3-2 after the second period, but they were able to tie the game early in the third and get the win in overtime. The Stars outshot Anaheim by a total of 31-25, won 58.3% of the face-offs, and went 1-4 on the power play in the game. Dallas got goals from Granlund (2), Johnston, and Harley, while Oettinger stopped 22 out of 25 shots in the game. 

Prior to that win, the Stars lost to the Avalanche by a score of 4-3 and the Jets by a score of 4-1. Dallas has lost three of their last five games and they are currently second in the Central standings with 89 points. Dallas has scored 3.39 goals per game and they have allowed 2.63 goals against per game, while also going 22.6% on the power play and 84.3% on the penalty kill this season. Matt Duchene has led Dallas with 26 goals, 42 assists, and 126 shots on goal, while Jason Robertson has added 29 goals, 38 assists, and 184 shots on goal. Jake Oettinger is 31-15-3 with a 2.55 goals against average and a .906 save percentage this year. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 39-23-5 this season after they defeated Philadelphia by a score of 2-0 in their last game. Tampa Bay scored once in the first period and added an empty-net goal in the third for the win. The Lightning outshot Philadelphia by a total of 23-21, won 50% of the face-offs, and went 1-4 on the power play in the game. Tampa Bay got goals from Guentzel and Kucherov, while Vasilevskiy stopped all 21 shots in the game. 

Prior to that shutout victory, the Lightning defeated the Bruins by a score of 6-2 but did lose to the Flyers by a score of 4-3 before that. Tampa Bay has won four of their last seven games and they are currently third in the Atlantic standings with 83 points. Tampa Bay has scored 3.51 goals per game and they have allowed 2.64 goals against per game, while also going 25.8% on the power play and 82.5% on the penalty kill this season. Nikita Kucherov has led Tampa Bay with 29 goals, 66 assists, and 211 shots on goal, while Brandon Hagel has added 31 goals, 42 assists, and 191 shots on goal. Andrei Vasilevskiy is 32-18-3 with a 2.28 goals against average and a .920 save percentage this year. 

Why the Stars will beat the Lightning

• The Stars have won each of their last eight games at American Airlines Center.
• The Lightning have lost each of their last eight games as road underdogs following a win.
• The Stars have covered the puck line in seven of their last eight games at American Airlines Center against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in seven of their last eight games as road underdogs against Central Division opponents.
• The Lightning have lost the third period in each of their last six games as road underdogs against Central Division opponents when trailing after the second period.

Total Goals Facts

• Seven of the Lightning’s last eight games following a win have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Seven of the Stars’ last eight home games have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Stars’ last eight games as favorites against the Lightning.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3’ market has hit in seven of the Lightning’s last eight games as underdogs against Central Division opponents.

Dallas Stars Player Prop Facts

• Wyatt Johnston has scored at least one goal in each of the Stars’ last six home games.
• Wyatt Johnston has recorded at least one point in each of the Stars’ last 15 home games.
• Miro Heiskanen has recorded an assist in each of his last five appearances after playing less than 20 minutes in the Stars’ last game.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Victor Hedman has recorded at least one point in each of the Lightning’s last eight road games against Central Division opponents.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in each of the Lightning’s last eight road games against Central Division opponents.
• Brayden Point has scored a goal in each of the Lightning’s last three games as road underdogs against Central Division opponents.

Stars vs Lightning Prediction 

Tampa Bay comes into this matchup looking for their third win in a row but will be on the road here. The Lightning are 15-15-3 on the road this year, while the Stars are 25-7-1 at home. Dallas hasn’t played their best over the last few games, but they are one of the best home teams in the NHL. These two teams are very similar when looking at their season numbers, but with Tampa Bay very iffy on the road and Dallas being a great home team, I will take the Stars to get the win here.