Tampa Bay Lightning vs Chicago Blackhawks Prediction 11/5/26 NHL Picks Today

The Chicago Blackhawks and the Tampa Bay Lightning meet Thursday in NHL action from the Benchmark International Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game.

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction

I’m on the Lightning in this one. I get the case to be made for an underdog in some spots, but this is just a bad matchup for Chicago. The Lightning are at home and Chicago’s been getting crushed on the road all season long up to this point. The Lightning are in a big spot for a big win here and if they can’t crush Chicago here then we’ll need to have a talk. I’ll lay it in a big way with Tampa Bay in this one.

Chicago Blackhawks Recap

The Chicago Blackhawks come into this game looking to rebound from a 5-3 loss to Florida last time out to sit at 4-11-1 this season. After this game, Chicago will head on the road again for a game against the Carolina Hurricanes. Connor Bedard powers the Chicago Blackhawks offense through 16 games of the 2026-27 regular season, capturing the top spot on the team scoring leaderboard with 12 points after scoring 4 goals and distributing a team-high 8 assists across 10 appearances. Roman Kantserov and Patrick Kane follow closely with 9 points each, featuring Kantserov’s team-best 7 goals over 16 games and Kane’s 8 helpers across 15 appearances. Anton Frondell contributes 8 points with 3 tallies, while Frank Nazar registers 7 points through 5 goals in 14 games. Teuvo Teravainen, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Wyatt Kaiser each record 6 points, with Teravainen logging 13 appearances and Bertuzzi and Kaiser playing 16 games apiece. Ryan Donato chips in 5 points, followed by Ryan Greene and Sam Rinzel with 4 points each, while Artyom Levshunov, Cole Smith, and Oliver Moore round out the primary production with 3 points apiece. In net, Spencer Knight has started 13 games, posting a 4-9-0 record, a 3.28 goals-against average, and an .892 save percentage with 354 saves on 397 shots. Arvid Soderblom has made 3 appearances, going 0-2-1 with a 4.66 goals-against average and an .829 save percentage after turning aside 68 of 82 shots.

Why the Chicago Blackhawks will win

• The road team has won each of the last six games between the Blackhawks and Lightning.
• The Lightning have lost seven of their last 12 games as home favorites against opponents on a losing streak.
• The Blackhawks have covered the puck line in each of their last four games against the Lightning.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in five of their last six night games at Benchmark International Arena following a win.
• The Blackhawks have won the first period in five of their last six games against the Lightning.

Tampa Bay Lightning Recap

The Tampa Bay Lightning come into this game looking to add on to their 4-2 win over Detroit last time out to sit at 9-3-2 this season. After this game, Tampa Bay will head on the road for a game against the Minnesota Wild. Nikita Kucherov paces the Tampa Bay Lightning offense through 14 games of the 2026-27 regular season, capturing the top spot on the team scoring leaderboard with 20 points after scoring 4 goals and distributing a team-high 16 assists. Brandon Hagel follows with 16 points, leading the squad by lighting the lamp 8 times alongside 8 helpers, while Jake Guentzel contributes 14 points, featuring 8 goals. Brayden Point registers 13 points through 5 tallies and 8 assists, while Pontus Holmberg chips in 10 points with 4 goals. Anthony Cirelli and John Carlson each record 9 and 8 points, respectively, with Cirelli scoring 5 goals and Carlson adding 5 tallies from the blue line. Charle-Edouard D’Astous also records 8 points, followed by Victor Hedman with 5 points. Ilya Mikheyev and Conor Geekie each chip in 4 points with 2 and 4 goals respectively, while Erik Cernak, Ryan McDonagh, Gage Goncalves, and Max Crozier round out the remaining roster production with 3 points each. In net, Andrei Vasilevskiy has started 11 games, posting a 7-3-1 record, a 2.91 goals-against average, and an .879 save percentage with 232 saves on 264 shots. Dennis Hildeby has made 3 appearances, going 2-0-1 with a 2.98 goals-against average and an .885 save percentage after turning aside 69 of 78 shots.

Chicago Blackhawks @ Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Trends: November 5, 2026

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Blackhawks have lost each of their last 15 games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Lightning have won each of their last nine home games against Central Division opponents.
• The Blackhawks have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last six night games.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in seven of their last eight games against the Blackhawks following a home win.
• The Lightning have won the second period in nine of their last 10 home games when trailing after the first period.

Why the Chicago Blackhawks will win

• The road team has won each of the last six games between the Blackhawks and Lightning.
• The Lightning have lost seven of their last 12 games as home favorites against opponents on a losing streak.
• The Blackhawks have covered the puck line in each of their last four games against the Lightning.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in five of their last six night games at Benchmark International Arena following a win.
• The Blackhawks have won the first period in five of their last six games against the Lightning.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Lightning’s last seven home games following a home win have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Seven of the Blackhawks’ last eight games on the second leg of a back-to-back have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last nine night games.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Blackhawks’ last nine road games against Atlantic Division opponents.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Conor Geekie has scored a goal in each of the Lightning’s last three games against Central Division opponents.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in each of his last seven home appearances against Central Division opponents.
• Nikita Kucherov ranks T2nd in the league for multi-assist games (6) this season.

Chicago Blackhawks Player Prop Facts

• Ryan Donato has scored at least one goal in three of his last four road appearances against the Lightning.
• Patrick Kane has recorded an assist in each of his last four road appearances against the Lightning.
• Connor Bedard is one of only six players in the league to have recorded 4+ shots in four or more consecutive appearances this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 4th in the league for goals per game this season (3.71).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank T27th in the league in power play percentage this season (16.33%).
• The Chicago Blackhawks rank 32nd in the league in power play percentage this season (10.00%).
• The Chicago Blackhawks rank 31st in the league for goals per game this season (2.25).