Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction 5/3/26 NHL Picks Today

The Montreal Canadiens and the Tampa Bay Lightning meet Sunday in NHL action from the Bell Centre. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning prediction.

Montreal Canadiens Recap

The Montreal Canadiens come into this game looking to bounce back from their 1-0 loss at the hands of the Lightning in game six.

Canadiens Looking For First Second Round Appearance Since 2021

Nick Suzuki leads Montreal with 101 points including 29 goals and 72 assists while Cole Caufield has 88 points with a team-high 51 goals and 37 assists. Lane Hutson has 78 points with 66 assists while Ivan Demidov has 62 points with 19 goals and 43 assists. Noah Dobson has 47 points with 35 assists and Mike Matheson has 37 points with 7 goals and 30 assists. Oliver Kapanen has 37 points with 22 goals and 15 assists while Zack Bolduc has 30 points with 12 goals and 18 assists. Juraj Slafkovsky also has 73 points with 30 goals and 43 assists. Sam Montembault has gone 10-8-4 with a 3.43 GAA and an .872 save percentage in goal for the Canadiens while Jakub Dobes is 29-10-4 with a 2.78 GAA and a .901 save percentage. Jacob Fowler is also 8-6-2 with a 2.52 GAA and an .904 save percentage for the Habs this season.

Tampa Bay Lightning Recap

The Tampa Bay Lightning come into this game looking to complete the comeback after their win over Montreal in game six to force game seven.

Lightning Looking To Make Another Cup Run

Nikita Kucherov leads the Lightning in scoring with 130 points including 44 goals and 86 assists while Brandon Hagel has 74 points with 36 goals and 38 assists and Jake Guentzel has 88 points with 38 goals and 50 assists. Anthony Cirelli has 52 points with 23 goals and 29 assists. Darren Raddysh has also added 70 points with 22 goals and 48 assists as well on the year. Andrei Vasilevskiy has gone 39-15-4 with a 2.31 GAA and a .912 save percentage while Jonas Johansson is 11-10-2 with a 3.29 GAA and an .884 save percentage this season.

Montreal Canadiens @ Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Trends: May 3, 2026

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Lightning have won each of their last six home games against the Canadiens after coming off overtime.
• The Canadiens have lost each of their last six games at Benchmark International Arena after coming off overtime.
• The home team has covered the puck line in three of the Canadiens’ last four games.
• The Lightning have won the second period in seven of their last eight home games when trailing after the first period.

Why the Montreal Canadiens will win

• The Canadiens have won eight of their last nine games as road underdogs.
• The Lightning have lost three of their last four games as home favorites.
• The Canadiens have covered the puck line in each of their last 31 games as underdogs.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last 12 games.
• The Canadiens have won the second period in each of their last eight games as underdogs when trailing after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Canadiens’ last six games after coming off overtime have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Eight of the last nine night games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Seven of the last eight games between the Canadiens and Lightning have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last nine games following a road win.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in 19 of the Canadiens’ last 20 Sunday games.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Nikita Kucherov has scored at least one goal in seven of his last eight Sunday home appearances.
• Ryan McDonagh has recorded at least one assist in each of his five previous appearances in playoff series closeout games against the Canadiens.
• Nikita Kucherov ranks T1st in the league for multi-assist games (25) this season.

Montreal Canadiens Player Prop Facts

• Nick Suzuki has recorded at least one assist in nine of the Canadiens’ last 10 road games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Cole Caufield ranks 1st in the league for Game Winning Goals (12) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 3rd in the league for goals against per game this season (2.79).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 3rd in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (82.56%).
• The Montreal Canadiens rank 7th in the league for goals per game this season (3.40).
• The Montreal Canadiens are one of only three teams with two or more players to record at least 60 assists this season (Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson).

Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction

I’m on the Canadiens here. It used to be that you couldn’t fade the Lightning off of a loss, as they would not lose back-to-back games in the playoffs. Now, it’s Montreal that hasn’t been losing back-to-back games with Jakub Dobes in goal and I think he cements his spot as one of the goalies of the future if he hasn’t already with a strong showing in this game. Give me Montreal to advance.