The San Jose Sharks are fighting to keep their heads above water with a 0-5-1 record, sitting at the bottom of the Pacific Division. A loss to the Florida Panthers in their recent outing has them scrambling for answers. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Lightning (3-2-2, 4th in the Atlantic Division) are coming off a morale-boosting shutout win against the Carolina Hurricanes. Both teams are facing different challenges and both are looking to snatch the win.

Sharks Circling for Redemption

The San Jose Sharks are in a precarious position, marred by a losing streak that has fans and analysts alike questioning their potential this season. Goalie Mackenzie Blackwood, who was supposed to be a stopper in net, has posted a 3.47 goals against average and a save percentage of .914. While these stats are far from horrendous, the numbers are not the sort that can bail out a team struggling so mightily on offense. Speaking of offense, it’s been somewhat of a one-man show with Tomas Hertl leading the team in points. Hertl has 5 points, a sad indicator of the team’s offensive woes, given that such a tally makes him the team leader.

San Jose is averaging just 1.33 goals per game, which puts the Sharks at the bottom of the league. The power play is converting at a lackluster 15%. This is significant because power plays often are able to equalize tightly contested games, and San Jose is failing to capitalize. The penalty kill percentage is also below league average at 73.9%, which could be a nightmare against the Lightning’s electric power play unit. Their recent loss to the Florida Panthers exposed many of these flaws, as they were unable to capitalize on scoring opportunities, while giving up three goals.

Perhaps a trend worth noting is the Sharks’ inability to hold leads. In their recent games, whenever the Sharks managed to score first, holding onto that lead has been a difficult task. Defensive lapses, poor puck control, and lack of offensive zone time have been contributing factors. Against a team like Tampa Bay, which has a penchant for scoring in bunches, this trend could prove to be San Jose’s undoing. A lackluster start to the season, coupled with an inability to maintain a lead, suggests that the Sharks are in for an uphill battle in this matchup.

San Jose Sharks Team Facts

• The Sharks have lost each of their last 12 games.
• The favorites have covered the puck line in 10 of the Sharks’ last 11 games.
• The Sharks have lost the third period in 10 of their last 11 games as underdogs.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Sharks’ last six Thursday games.

Lightning Aiming to Keep the Charge On

The Tampa Bay Lightning are in a more favorable position entering this game at home against San Jose. The most recent outing against the Carolina Hurricanes ended in a 3-0 win, demonstrating an ability to bounce back from setbacks. The goalie situation seems stable with Jonas Johansson posting a respectable 2.99 GAA and a save percentage of .917. While these numbers may not be eye-popping, Johansson has been reliable, especially when the team in front of him is performing well offensively.

Nikita Kucherov has played well to start the season, leading the team with 10 points. The Lightning are netting an average of 3.29 goals per game, making them one of the more potent offenses in the NHL. The power play is operating at an impressive 33.3%, which not only gives Tampa Bay a chance to score but also creates momentum shifts in their favor. On the flip side, the penalty kill has been almost impenetrable, with a staggering 94.1% success rate. This could be the key difference-maker when facing a Sharks team that struggles on the power play.

One trend that stands out for the Lightning is their home record. So far, Tampa Bay are 3-0-1 at home, a stat that cannot be ignored when considering the outcome of this game. Amalie Arena has been tough for opponents to play in, and with the Sharks struggling on the road, this adds an additional advantage for the Lightning. Tampa Bay’s special teams are among the league’s best, and special teams often tip the scales in closely contested NHL games. With a high-converting power play and a nearly impenetrable penalty kill, the Lightning have the tools to dismantle the Sharks in this upcoming game.

Tampa Bay Lightning Team Facts

• The Lightning have lost five of their last six games as favorites following a home win.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in seven of their last eight games at Amalie Arena against opponents on a losing streak.
• The home team has won the first period in each of the Lightning’s last five games.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last eight games as home favorites against opponents on a losing streak.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Tampa Bay Lightning ranks 3rd in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (94.12%).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning ranks 5th in the league in power play percentage this season (33.33%).
• The San Jose Sharks ranks 32nd in the league for goals per game this season (1.33).
• The San Jose Sharks ranks T26th in the league for goals against per game this season (3.67).

David’s Pick – Tampa Bay Lightning (-333)

Given the recent form and stats, the Sharks are still searching for their identity this season. On the other hand, the Lightning, despite a couple of blips, appear to be in sync, both offensively and defensively. While Johansson is doing a commendable job between the pipes, the Sharks’ goaltending is yet to step up and perform. Add to that Tampa Bay’s home-ice advantage, and you’ve got a recipe for a Lightning victory. Expect Tampa Bay to ride the momentum and come out on top, making them the safer bet in this duel.