Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction 11-30-24 NHL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction for this NHL game on Saturday, November 30th at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 12-8-2 this year after they defeated Nashville in overtime by a score of 3-2 in their last game. Tampa Bay allowed the Predators to tie the game in the second, but they picked up the win in overtime. The Lightning were outshot by a total of 30-28, won 49.2% of the face-offs, and went 1-4 on the power play in the game. Tampa Bay got goals from Cirelli, Hagel, and Point, while Johansson stopped 28 out of 30 shots in the win. 

Prior to that game, the Lightning lost to Washington by a score of 5-4 but did beat Colorado by a score of 8-2 before that. Tampa Bay has scored 3.81 goals per game and they have allowed 3.10 goals against per game, while also going 23.4% on the power play and 76.9% on the penalty kill this season. Nikita Kucherov has led Tampa Bay with 12 goals, 22 assists, and 82 shots on goal, while Andrei Vasilevskiy is 10-7-1 with a 2.40 goals-against average and a .910 save percentage this year. 

Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs are 13-7-2 this season after they lost to Florida by a score of 5-1 in their last game. Toronto cut the deficit to 3-1 in the second period, but couldn’t find any more offense in the loss. The Maple Leafs recorded 24 shots on goal, won 60% of the face-offs, and went 1-3 on the power play in the game. Toronto got their lone goal from Marner, while Stolarz stopped 19 out of 23 shots in the loss. 

Prior to that game, the Maple Leafs won four games in a row against Utah, Vegas, Edmonton, and Washington. Toronto has scored 2.95 goals per game and they have allowed 2.59 goals against per game, while also going 20.3% on the power play and 82.1% on the penalty kill this season. Mitch Marner has led Toronto with nine goals, 20 assists, and 58 shots on goal, while Anthony Stolarz is 7-4-2 with a 2.33 goals-against average and a .921 save percentage this year. 

Why the Maple Leafs will beat the Lightning

• The Lightning have lost six of their last seven games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Maple Leafs have won five of their last six games at Amalie Arena.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last five home games on the second leg of a back-to-back.
• The Maple Leafs have covered the puck line in four of their last five road games following a road loss.
• The favorites have won the second period in each of the last four games between the Maple Leafs and Lightning.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Lightning’s last five games against Atlantic Division opponents has gone OVER the total goals line.
• Each of the Maple Leafs’ last five games as favorites against opponents who are on the second leg of a back-to-back has gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Six of the last seven night games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone UNDER the total goal line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last 11 games as favorites.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in 11 of the last 12 games between the Maple Leafs and Lightning.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one point in each of his last 22 appearances with the Lightning as underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Brayden Point has scored at least one goal in each of his last six appearances against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in each of the Lightning’s last 13 games against Atlantic Division opponents.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

• Auston Matthews has recorded at least one point in 17 of the Maple Leafs’ last 18 games as favorites against the Lightning.
• John Tavares has scored the last goal in each of the Maple Leafs’ last three games at Amalie Arena.
• Mitch Marner has scored at least one goal in four of the Maple Leafs’ last five games.
• Mitch Marner has recorded at least one assist in 14 of his last 15 appearances with the Maple Leafs as favorites against the Lightning.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 4th in the league for goals per game this season (3.77).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 8th in the league in power play percentage this season (23.53%).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 3rd in the league for goals against per game this season (2.59).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 8th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (82.05%).

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction 

Tampa Bay comes into this matchup after picking up an overtime win against Nashville on Friday, so they will be on a back-to-back here. The Lightning have lost three of their last five games, but they are 7-3-1 at home this year. Toronto is 3-4-2 on the road, but they do have the rest advantage in this spot. The Maple Leafs have won four of their last five games and they are expected to get Matthews back for this one. Toronto is red hot right now and they haven’t played since Wednesday. Take the Maple Leafs here.