Toronto Maple Leafs vs NY Islanders Prediction 9/30/26 NHL Picks Today

The New York Islanders and the Toronto Maple Leafs meet Wednesday in NHL action from the Scotiabank Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Islanders vs. Toronto Maple Leafs prediction.

New York Islanders Team Preview

The New York Islanders come into the 2026-27 season looking to take the next step in getting back on track, despite missing the playoffs for the second straight season with a record of 43-34-5. 2025-26 saw the emergence of Matthew Schaefer in the Islanders lineup as Schaefer won the Calder trophy as the NHL’s top rookie, leading to him taking over an assistant captain role in 2026-27. Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat will lead the Islanders offensive punch after Barzal bounced back from an injury-plagued 2024-25 season to lead New York with 72 points last season. Horvat on the flipside chipped in 31 goals for the Isles last season. The Islanders bring back Ilya Sorokin in the hopes of finding his Vezina caliber form once again, but this tie bring in Vitek Vanacek to back him up.

Toronto Maple Leafs Recap

The Toronto Maple Leafs will be out to rebound after starting the season with a 3-2 loss at the hands of the Montreal Canadiens last time out to start the year at 0-1. After this game, Toronto will take on the Ottawa Senators in a matchup at home.

Maple Leafs Looking To Get In Win Column

William Nylander opened the scoring for Toronto just 48 seconds into the game before Montreal would tie things up at one just after the midway point of the opening frame. Montreal would tie the game up at one  before taking a 2-1 lead with the lone goal of the second period. The Habs would take a 3-1 lead before Nylander would score his second of the game with just over four minutes to play, but it was too little too late as Toronto would fall short in the end. Sergei Bobrovsky gave up 3 goals on 24 shots faced in the losing effort to fall to 0-1 this season.

New York Islanders @ Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Trends: September 30, 2026

Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will win

• The Islanders have lost seven of their last eight games.
• The Maple Leafs have won each of their last four home games against the Islanders following a loss.
• The Islanders have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last five season openers.
• The Maple Leafs have covered the puck line in each of their last five home games against the Islanders following a loss.
• The favorites have won the second period in each of the Maple Leafs’ last seven games.

Why the New York Islanders will win

• The Maple Leafs have lost each of their last 13 games following a home loss.
• The Islanders have won four of their last five games as underdogs against opponents on a losing streak.
• The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last nine games as favorites following a home loss.
• The Islanders have covered the puck line in nine of their last 10 games against the Maple Leafs.
• The Maple Leafs have lost the second period in seven of their last eight games following a loss.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Islanders’ last six road games against opponents who are on the second leg of a back-to-back have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Seven of the Maple Leafs’ last eight home games against the Islanders following a loss have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last nine games as home favorites.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Islanders’ last eight games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

• William Nylander has scored at least one goal in each of his last five appearances with the Maple Leafs as home favorites.
• John Tavares has recorded an assist in each of the Maple Leafs’ last four games as favorites.

New York Islanders Player Prop Facts

• Emil Heineman has scored a goal in each of the Islanders’ last three games against the Maple Leafs.
• Mathew Barzal has recorded at least one assist in seven of the Islanders’ last eight road games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Toronto Maple Leafs ranked 31st in the league for goals against per game last season (3.60).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs ranked 8th in the league in penalty kill percentage last season (81.22%).
• The New York Islanders ranked 30th in the league in power play percentage last season (16.53%).
• The New York Islanders ranked T5th in the league for goals against per game last season (2.88).

New York Islanders vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction

I’m leaning towards the Islanders here. Toronto has had big time issues with the Islanders over the years, and the problem for Toronto is that they’re opening the year with a back-to-back while still trying to work in a handful of new players. It was a good start to the year for Toronto, scoring a minute in, but it doesn’t mean much if you can’t keep the pressure on for a full 60 minutes. I think the Islanders take advantage of the rest and get the win here.